HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0205

Time	Data and Events	Importance
Pending	Saudi Aramco announces official crude oil prices around the 5th of each month.	★★★
05:30	U.S. API crude oil inventory for the week ending January 31.	★★★
08:30	Fed Vice Chair Jefferson speaks on the U.S. economy.	★★★
15:45	France’s December industrial output month-on-month.	★★★
16:50	France’s January services PMI final value.	★★★
16:55	Germany’s January services PMI final value.	★★★
17:00	Eurozone’s January services PMI final value.	★★★
17:30	UK’s January services PMI final value.	★★★
18:00	Eurozone’s December PPI month-on-month.	★★★
21:15	U.S. January ADP employment numbers.	★★★★
21:30	U.S. Treasury Department releases quarterly refinancing plan.	★★★
23:00	U.S. January ISM non-manufacturing PMI.	★★★
23:30	U.S. EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending January 31.	★★★★
	U.S. EIA crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, for the week ending January 31.	★★★
	U.S. EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory for the week ending January 31.	★★★

Variety	Viewpoint	Support Range	Resistance Range
U.S. Dollar Index	Short-term Adjustment	107-107.5	110-111
Gold	Fluctuating Strong	2780-2800	2900-2920
Crude Oil	Short-term Adjustment	69-70	79-80
Euro	Short-term Fluctuation	1.0180-1.0200	1.0500-1.0550

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and have limitations, purely for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and the associated risks are borne by the trader. Investment involves risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The Federal Reserve meeting at the end of January maintained the interest rate, the labor market remains strong, economic activity shows steady expansion, and inflation levels appear slightly high. Expectations for monetary policy easing have cooled, and attention will be on new government policies. In December, non-farm data showed a significant increase in new jobs, exceeding expectations, and the unemployment rate fell slightly to 4.1%, indicating a strong labor market. The December core PCE price index was flat compared to previous values; January ISM manufacturing PMI saw a slight increase; December CPI rose slightly, broadly meeting expectations. Attention will be on Friday’s non-farm data.

Technical Analysis:

The U.S. Dollar Index is experiencing high-level fluctuations, with prices failing to create new highs on the second upward attempt, indicating selling pressure above. One should be cautious of potential weakening in the market; short-term adjustments may continue, and there are no signs of a bottoming out yet. Overall analysis suggests a larger range of fluctuation leaning towards strength, with short-term adjustments. The key resistance area is around 110-111, and the support area is around 107-107.5.

Viewpoint: Short-term adjustment; pay attention to the effects of support levels. If a structural breach occurs, further market adjustments will follow.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and have limitations, purely for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and the associated risks are borne by the trader. Investment involves risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East continue to worsen, and the situation in Eastern Europe is unstable and uncertain. The European Central Bank’s rate decision at the end of January saw a continuous fourth consecutive rate cut of 25 basis points, with inflation largely in line with expectations, though economic performance remains weak and under pressure. The Federal Reserve’s rate decision at the end of January maintained interest rates, with solid economic activity, although inflation levels remain high, and rate cut expectations have eased. The U.S. non-farm data for December showed strong performance, with a significant increase in employment and a slight drop in the unemployment rate; December’s CPI rose moderately. Attention is focused on the U.S. non-farm data this Friday.

Technical Analysis:

Gold prices have recently shown strong performance, trending upwards on a daily basis and hitting new historical highs, with no signs of weakening. Long positions should take profits at highs, and the short-term strategy should primarily focus on buying on dips to prevent losses from short-term corrections. In the longer term, the upward structure remains intact, currently in a high-level fluctuation; attention is on whether prices can make new highs. The upper resistance level is likely near 2900-2920, while the lower support level is around 2780-2800.

Viewpoint: The market is fluctuating with a slight upward bias, focusing on short-term buying strategies, and taking profits on long positions at highs.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and have limitations, purely for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and the associated risks are borne by the trader. Investment involves risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The January EIA monthly report slightly raised the projected crude oil prices for 2025. The OPEC monthly report maintains the global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 and slightly raises the global economic growth outlook for 2025-2026; the IEA monthly report slightly lowers the global oil demand growth forecast for 2025. At the beginning of February, the OPEC+ meeting will adhere to the previous oil production agreements, with the committee agreeing to gradually increase oil production starting April 1, in line with prior plans. EIA crude oil inventories have fluctuated significantly recently, potentially affecting the supply-demand structure. Attention is on the EIA crude oil inventory report this Wednesday.

Technical Analysis:

U.S. crude oil has recently undergone a slight pullback, with weaker performance in the short term; current prices are close to the lower support range and may shift into a range-bound market. If there are short positions, they should take profits on dips while watching for stabilization signals in a smaller timeframe. Overall, crude oil prices are fluctuating with a slight upward bias, showing signs of stabilization at a higher level, while short-term enters a correction. Key resistance levels are around 79-80, with support levels around 69-70.

Viewpoint: There is a short-term correction approaching the support zone, suggesting that short positions take profits on dips.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and have limitations, purely for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and the associated risks are borne by the trader. Investment involves risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The European Central Bank’s rate decision at the end of January saw a continuous fourth consecutive rate cut of 25 basis points, with inflation largely in line with expectations, expected to return to medium-term goals this year. The economy still faces challenges, potentially continuing to weaken in the short term, although income and policy effects support a rebound in demand. The Federal Reserve’s rate decision at the end of January maintained interest rates, with overall economic performance being strong, and expectations for easing have eased. The December U.S. non-farm data was robust, with substantial job growth, a slight decline in the unemployment rate, and a moderate increase in December’s CPI. Attention is again focused on the U.S. non-farm data this Friday.

Technical Analysis:

The euro price has recently been primarily in wide fluctuations, with pressure above and support below. The prior low structure has not been significantly broken in a second test, so the market may maintain a fluctuation pattern in the short term, with future attention on breakout directions. Overall, the daily trend is fluctuating downwards, showing weaker performance at a higher level, with a potential short-term rebound. The upper small-level pressure zone is around 1.0500-1.0550, and the lower support area is around 1.0180-1.0200.

Viewpoint: The market is fluctuating in the short term, with pressure above and support below, focusing on breakout directions in the future.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and have limitations, purely for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and the associated risks are borne by the trader. Investment involves risks; trading requires caution.