HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0206

Time	Data and Events	Importance
14:45	Switzerland’s adjusted unemployment rate for January	★★★
18:00	Eurozone’s retail sales month-on-month for December	★★★
20:00	Bank of England’s interest rate decision as of February 6	★★★★
20:30	U.S. Challenger job cuts for January	★★★
21:30	U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending February 1	★★★★
23:00	U.S. global supply chain pressure index for January	★★★
23:30	U.S. EIA natural gas inventory for the week ending January 31	★★★
Next Day 03:30	Federal Reserve Governor Waller speaks	★★★

Varieties	Views	Support Range	Resistance Range
U.S. Dollar Index	Short-term adjustment	107-107.5	110-111
Gold	Volatile and slightly strong	2780-2800	2900-2920
Crude Oil	Short-term adjustment	69-70	79-80
Euro	Short-term volatility	1.0180-1.0200	1.0500-1.0550

*Pre-market views, have timeliness and limitations, belong to forecasts, for reference and learning only, do not constitute investment advice, and operation risks are borne by the individual. Investment has risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

At the end of January, the Federal Reserve meeting maintained interest rates, the labor market remained strong, economic activity expanded steadily, inflation levels still appeared slightly high, and expectations for monetary policy easing have cooled, with attention on new government policies. December non-farm data showed a significant increase in job creation, exceeding expectations, and the unemployment rate slightly dropped to 4.1%, reflecting a strong labor market. The core PCE price index in December remained flat compared to the previous value; ISM manufacturing PMI for January slightly increased; the CPI for December rose slightly, generally in line with expectations. Pay attention to the non-farm data on Friday.

Technical Analysis:

The U.S. Dollar Index slightly fell yesterday, with a small cycle showing volatility and upward selling pressure. It is currently at a minor support level, and short-term fluctuations may continue. Attention should be on whether it can stabilize; if it breaks this structure, the market may further adjust. Overall, the large-scale trend is volatile and slightly strong, with short-term adjustments entering. Important resistance area is around 110-111, and support area is around 107-107.5.

Viewpoint: Short-term adjustment, pay attention to the effectiveness of the support level; if the structure is broken, the market may further adjust.

*Pre-market views, have timeliness and limitations, belong to forecasts, for reference and learning only, do not constitute investment advice, and operation risks are borne by the individual. Investment has risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

Ongoing deterioration of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, unrest in Eastern Europe, and uncertainties exist. The European Central Bank’s interest rate decision at the end of January resulted in a fourth consecutive cut of 25 basis points; inflation is generally in line with expectations, but the economy still shows weak performance and faces pressure. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision at the end of January maintained rates, with good economic activity and inflation levels still high, easing expectations for rate cuts. The U.S. non-farm data for December performed well, with significant job growth and a slight drop in the unemployment rate; the CPI for December rose moderately. Pay attention to the U.S. non-farm data on Friday.

Technical Analysis:

The gold price continued its upward trend yesterday, reaching a new high in a short cycle, with no signs of turning weaker. It is not advisable to chase prices excessively; if there are long positions, it is appropriate to reduce holdings at high points. The short-term strategy should focus on buying on dips. It is essential to take profits in a timely manner to prevent losses from a short-term correction. From a long-term perspective, the upward structure is intact, currently in a high-level consolidation, and attention should be paid to whether prices can set new highs. The upper resistance level may be around 2900-2920, while the lower support level for the small scale is around 2780-2800.

Opinion: The trend is consolidating with a bias towards strength, primarily a short-term long strategy, with long positions reduced at high points to take profits.

*Pre-market views, have timeliness and limitations, belong to forecasts, for reference and learning only, do not constitute investment advice, and operation risks are borne by the individual. Investment has risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The January EIA monthly report slightly raises the oil price forecast for 2025; the OPEC monthly report maintains the growth outlook for global oil demand in 2025 and slightly raises the global economic growth forecast for 2025-2026; the IEA monthly report slightly lowers the global oil demand growth forecast for 2025. At the beginning of February, the OPEC+ meeting will adhere to the previous oil production agreement, and the committee agrees to gradually increase oil production starting from April 1, consistent with prior plans. EIA crude oil inventories have significantly increased, and this data has been volatile recently, which may affect the supply-demand structure.

Technical Analysis:

US crude oil futures slightly peaked and then retreated, encountering selling pressure from above. In the short term, a correction trend may continue, and there has been no sign of a stabilization yet. Current prices are close to the support area, which may lead to fluctuations. If there are short positions, it is advisable to reduce holdings at low points to take profits, while watching for signs of stabilization in the short cycle. Overall, the oil price is strongly fluctuating, showing signs of stability in a larger context, but entering a correction in the short term. The significant resistance area above is around 79-80, while the support area below is around 69-70.

Opinion: Short-term correction, approaching the support area, with short positions reduced at low points to take profits.

*Pre-market views, have timeliness and limitations, belong to forecasts, for reference and learning only, do not constitute investment advice, and operation risks are borne by the individual. Investment has risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The European Central Bank’s interest rate decision at the end of January saw a fourth consecutive rate cut of 25 basis points. Inflation is basically in line with expectations and is expected to return to the medium-term target this year. The economy still faces challenges, and may continue to be weak in the short term, with income and policy effects supporting demand recovery. At the end of January, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision left rates unchanged, with overall economic performance being strong, and easing expectations somewhat alleviated. In December, the US non-farm data was strong, with a significant increase in employment figures and a slight decline in the unemployment rate, while the consumer price index rose moderately in December. Attention is on the US non-farm data on Friday.

Technical Analysis:

The euro price slightly increased yesterday but encountered resistance after peaking in overnight trading and failed to break through previous highs significantly. There is selling pressure above and support below; in the short term, it may maintain wide fluctuations, with a focus on the breakout direction in the future. Overall, the daily trend is showing a downward fluctuation, with a larger scale showing weakness, but a short-term rebound is evident. The upper small-level pressure area is around 1.0500-1.0550 while the lower support area is around 1.0180-1.0200.

Opinion: Short-term fluctuations, with pressure above and support below, focusing on the breakout direction in the future.

*Pre-market views, have timeliness and limitations, belong to forecasts, for reference and learning only, do not constitute investment advice, and operation risks are borne by the individual. Investment has risks; trading requires caution.