HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0207

Time	Data and Events	Importance
15:00	Germany’s December seasonally adjusted industrial output month-on-month	★★★
	Germany’s December seasonally adjusted trade balance	★★★
	UK’s January Halifax seasonally adjusted house price index month-on-month	★★★
15:45	France’s December trade balance	★★★
16:00	Switzerland’s January consumer confidence index	★★★
21:30	Canada’s January employment numbers	★★★
	US January unemployment rate	★★★★★
	US January seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls	★★★★★
	US January average hourly wage year-on-year	★★★
	US January average hourly wage month-on-month	★★★
22:25	Federal Reserve Governor Bowman speaks on bank regulation	★★★
23:00	US February one-year inflation expectations preliminary value	★★★
	US February University of Michigan consumer confidence index preliminary value	★★★
	US December wholesale sales month-on-month	★★★

Variety	Viewpoint	Support Range	Resistance Range
US Dollar Index	Short-term correction	107-107.5	110-111
Gold	Fluctuating with a slight upward bias	2780-2800	2900-2920
Oil	Short-term correction	69-70	79-80
Euro	Short-term fluctuations	1.0180-1.0200	1.0500-1.0550

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, and are for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investing carries risks, trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

At the end of January, the Federal Reserve’s meeting maintained interest rates, the labor market remains strong, economic activity steadily expands, inflation levels still appear slightly elevated, expectations for monetary policy easing have cooled, and attention will be on the government’s new policies. December non-farm data showed a significant increase in new jobs beyond expectations, with the unemployment rate slightly falling to 4.1%, indicating a strong labor market. The core PCE price index for December remained flat; January’s ISM Manufacturing PMI increased slightly; December’s CPI rose moderately, aligning with expectations. Watch for non-farm data on Friday.

Technical Analysis:

The US Dollar Index shows slight intra-day fluctuations, with minimal volatility, currently resting near a small level of support, potentially continuing to fluctuate in the short term. Attention should be on whether it can stabilize; if it breaks this structure, the market may further correct. Overall, a larger-scale fluctuation shows a slight upward bias, and the short-term is entering an adjustment phase. Important resistance area above is around 110-111, and support area below is around 107-107.5.

Viewpoint: Short-term correction, pay attention to the effectiveness of support levels. Monitor the impact of non-farm data.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, and are for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investing carries risks, trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

Ongoing geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East are worsening, and the Eastern European situation is volatile, presenting uncertainties. The European Central Bank’s interest rate decision at the end of January saw a fourth consecutive 25bps cut, with inflation roughly meeting expectations and the economy still under pressure. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision at the end of January maintained rates, with good economic activity and inflation levels still high, alleviating easing expectations. December’s non-farm data in the US performed well, with a significant increase in employment numbers and a slight drop in the unemployment rate; December’s CPI rose moderately. Watch for US non-farm data on Friday.

Technical Analysis:

The gold price experienced a slight pullback in the night session before continuing to rise, showing strong performance recently. In the short term, it may surge and test resistance levels, so it is important to pay attention to whether the price can set new highs. If there are long positions, it is advisable to take appropriate profits when the price rises. The main short-term strategy should focus on buying on dips, and profits should be taken in a timely manner. From a longer-term perspective, the upward structure remains intact, currently fluctuating at high levels, with attention on whether new highs can be achieved. The upper pressure level may be around 2900-2920, while the lower support level is around 2780-2800.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating with a strong bias, the main strategy should focus on short-term long positions, with profits taken from high positions.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, and are for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investing carries risks, trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The January EIA report slightly raised the crude oil price forecast for 2025; the OPEC monthly report maintained the growth forecast for global crude oil demand in 2025, with a slight increase in the global economic growth forecast for 2025-2026; the IEA report slightly reduced the growth forecast for global oil demand in 2025. At the beginning of February, the OPEC+ meeting adhered to the previous oil production agreement, with the committee agreeing to gradually increase oil production starting April 1, in line with previous plans. EIA crude oil inventory saw a significant increase, and this data has been volatile recently, possibly affecting the supply and demand structure.

Technical Analysis:

US crude oil continued to adjust weakly yesterday, with short cycles showing downward fluctuations and upper pressure present. The current price is close to the support area, showing no signs of a bottom yet and may continue to fluctuate. If there are short positions, it is advisable to take profits on dips while monitoring for signs of stabilization in smaller cycles. Overall, crude oil prices are showing a strong tendency to fluctuate, with signs of stabilization at higher levels, but a short-term correction is expected. The important upper pressure area is around 79-80, while the support area is between 69-70.

Viewpoint: Short-term correction is approaching the support area, and profits should be taken from short positions when prices dip.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, and are for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investing carries risks, trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The European Central Bank’s rate decision at the end of January saw a fourth consecutive 25 basis point cut, and inflation is broadly in line with expectations, set to return to medium-term targets this year, although the economy still faces challenges and may continue to be weak in the short term. The Federal Reserve’s rate decision at the end of January maintained the interest rate, with overall economic performance strong, easing expectations have somewhat lessened. The US non-farm payroll data for December was strong, with a significant increase in employment numbers and a slight decrease in the unemployment rate, while December CPI rose moderately. Attention should be paid to the US non-farm payroll data on Friday.

Technical Analysis:

The euro price experienced slight fluctuations yesterday, with potential upper pressure but also support below, suggesting that it may maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term, and attention should be paid to the direction of any breakout. Overall, the daily trend shows a downward fluctuation with weak performance at higher levels, but a short-term rebound has occurred. The small-level pressure area is around 1.0500-1.0550, while the support area is between 1.0180-1.0200.

Viewpoint: Short-term fluctuations with pressure above and support below, attention should be paid to the direction of any breakout in the future.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, and are for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investing carries risks, trading requires caution.