HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0314

Time	Data and events	Importance
To be determined	China holds a Beijing meeting on the Iran nuclear issue with Russia and Iran.	★★★
To be determined	Reports say U.S. President Trump and Russian President Putin will have a phone call.	★★★
15:00	Germany’s February CPI final value.	★★★
	UK’s monthly GDP growth rate for January.	★★★
	UK’s monthly manufacturing output for January.	★★★
	UK’s monthly industrial output for January.	★★★
15:45	France’s February CPI final value.	★★★
20:30	Canada’s monthly wholesale sales growth rate for January.	★★★
22:00	U.S. March one-year inflation expectation preliminary value.	★★★
	U.S. March University of Michigan consumer confidence index preliminary value.	★★★

Variety	Opinion	Support range	Resistance range
U.S. Dollar Index	Fluctuating weak	101-102	106-107
Gold	Fluctuating strong	2900-2930	2990-3000
Crude oil	Fluctuating weak	65-66	70-71
Euro	Fluctuating strong	1.0750-1.0800	1.0950-1.1000

*Pre-market opinions are time-sensitive and limited, for reference and learning only, do not constitute investment advice, operate at your own risk. Investment carries risks; trade with caution.

Fundamental analysis:

At the end of January, the Federal Reserve meeting decided to maintain interest rates unchanged, with a strong labor market and steady economic expansion, while inflation remains slightly high. The expectation for loose monetary policy has cooled, and attention will be paid to new government policies. February non-farm data showed an increase of 151,000 jobs, slightly below expectations, with unemployment rate rising slightly to 4.1%, indicating a slight easing in the labor market. The February non-seasonally adjusted CPI year-on-year rate recorded 2.8%, slightly lower than previous values and expectations. The January core PCE price index year-on-year rate slightly retreated, in line with expectations.

Technical analysis:

The U.S. Dollar Index continued to rebound yesterday, with small cycles oscillating upwards. Currently, attention is on whether prices can break through the small-level resistance, otherwise, a short-term oscillation may occur. If there are short positions, it’s advisable to reduce holdings to realize profits at lower prices. Overall, there are signs of weakening after a high-level oscillation on the daily line, which may continue a weak correction in the short term. The upper resistance area is near 106-107, while the lower support area is around 101-102.

Opinion: Fluctuating weak, small cycle rebound, not advisable to overly chase short positions.

*Pre-market opinions are time-sensitive and limited, for reference and learning only, do not constitute investment advice, operate at your own risk. Investment carries risks; trade with caution.

Fundamental analysis:

The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East continues to worsen, while the situation in Eastern Europe has eased, presenting uncertainties. The European Central Bank decided to cut interest rates by 25 basis points for the fifth consecutive time at the beginning of March, with inflation progressing smoothly, and economic growth risks tilted downward. At the end of January, the Federal Reserve decided to maintain interest rates unchanged, with good economic activity and slightly high inflation levels, alleviating rate cut expectations. U.S. February non-farm data showed slight easing, with job additions marginally below expectations and unemployment rate rising slightly to 4.1%; the February non-seasonally adjusted CPI year-on-year rate recorded 2.8%, slightly lower than expected.

Technical analysis:

Gold prices surged significantly yesterday, with small cycles reaching historical highs again, close to the upper pressure area, where selling pressure may occur. If there are long positions, it is advisable to reduce holdings to realize profits at higher prices in the short term, while focusing on buying on dips. In the broader cycle, the upward structure remains intact, but the daily high-level fluctuation and retreat warn of potential market corrections. The upper resistance may be around 2990-3000, while the lower support is around 2900-2930.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating slightly stronger, reduce long positions on rallies, primarily focus on buying on pullbacks.

*Pre-market opinions are time-sensitive and limited, for reference and learning only, do not constitute investment advice, operate at your own risk. Investment carries risks; trade with caution.

Fundamental analysis:

The March EIA Monthly Report basically maintains the oil price for 2025, slightly raising the forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026; OPEC’s Monthly Report keeps the global oil demand growth forecast unchanged for this year and next; the IEA’s Monthly Report slightly lowers the global oil demand growth forecast for 2025. In early February, the OPEC+ meeting adhered to the previous oil production agreement, and the committee agreed to gradually increase oil production starting April 1, in line with previous plans. EIA crude oil inventories increased slightly, which may pressure oil prices; pay attention to changes in data.

Technical analysis:

The U.S. crude oil night trading slightly retreated, with minor fluctuations in the short cycle, encountering selling pressure above. The current price is at a relatively low level, and the short-term may continue the fluctuating market; it is not advisable to short aggressively. If there are short positions, profit-taking should be done on dips, while also monitoring for stabilization signals. Overall, crude oil prices are fluctuating and correcting at low levels, with no signs of stabilization. The upper pressure area is around 70-71, and the lower support area is around 65-66.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating slightly weaker, near the support area, profit-taking on short positions should be done on dips.

*Pre-market opinions are time-sensitive and limited, for reference and learning only, do not constitute investment advice, operate at your own risk. Investment carries risks; trade with caution.

Fundamental analysis:

The European Central Bank’s interest rate decision in early March sees a consecutive fifth rate cut of 25 BP. Progress on inflation rebound is smooth, slightly lowering GDP growth forecast for this year and next, with economic growth risks leaning downwards and tariffs possibly bringing negative effects. At the end of January, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision maintained rates unchanged; overall economic performance is strong, and easing expectations have eased somewhat. The U.S. non-farm payroll data for February is slightly softer, with new jobs added slightly below expectations, and the unemployment rate rising slightly to 4.1%. The manufacturing PMI in the Eurozone remains relatively unchanged.

Technical analysis:

The euro price slightly retraced during the day, with minor downward fluctuations in the short cycle, approaching the pressure area above; caution is needed regarding the risk of a market pullback. Profit-taking on long positions should be done on rallies, with the primary focus on buying on dips. Overall, the price is at a relatively low level, exhibiting a daily fluctuation structure, potential for a significant stabilization signal. The upper pressure area is around 1.0950-1.1000, and the lower small support area is around 1.0750-1.0800.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating slightly stronger, with a focus on short-term long positions and profit-taking on rallies.

*Pre-market opinions are time-sensitive and limited, for reference and learning only, do not constitute investment advice, operate at your own risk. Investment carries risks; trade with caution.