HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0224

Time	Data and Events	Importance
17:00	Germany’s February IFO Business Climate Index	★★★
18:00	Eurozone January CPI Year-on-Year Final Value	★★★
	Eurozone January CPI Month-on-Month Preliminary Value	★★★
23:30	US February Dallas Fed Business Activity Index	★★★

Varieties	Viewpoints	Support Range	Resistance Range
US Dollar Index	Weak fluctuations	105.5-106	108.5-109
Gold	Strong fluctuations	2850-2870	2980-3000
Crude Oil	Short-term fluctuations	69-70	79-80
Euro	Strong fluctuations	1.0180-1.0200	1.0500-1.0550

*The pre-market viewpoint is time-sensitive and limited, belongs to forecasting, is for reference and learning only, and does not constitute investment advice; operate at your own risk. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

At the end of January’s Federal Reserve meeting, the interest rate was maintained, the labor market remained strong, economic activity expanded steadily, inflation levels still appeared slightly high, and expectations for monetary policy easing cooled somewhat, with attention to new government policies. January’s non-farm data showed new job numbers decreased to 143,000, lower than expected, while the unemployment rate fell slightly to 4.0%, indicating a steady labor market. The January unadjusted CPI year-on-year was recorded at 3.0%, slightly above previous values and expectations. The December core PCE price index remained flat with previous values; the January ISM Manufacturing PMI saw a slight increase.

Technical Analysis:

The US Dollar Index has continued its correction trend recently, with weak performance in smaller timeframes and no signs of a bottoming out; currently at minor support levels, a break below could further open up downward space, with short-term expectations of weak fluctuations. Overall, after high-level fluctuations on the daily chart, there are signs of weakening, and short-term could continue a downside correction. The upper minor resistance area is around 108.5-109, while the lower support area is around 105.5-106.

Viewpoint: Weak fluctuations; short-term can attempt short positions on rebounds.

*The pre-market viewpoint is time-sensitive and limited, belongs to forecasting, is for reference and learning only, and does not constitute investment advice; operate at your own risk. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

Ongoing geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, turmoil in Eastern Europe, and uncertainties persist. The European Central Bank’s January end interest rate decision saw a consecutive fourth reduction of 25 basis points, with inflation generally meeting expectations while the economy faces continued pressure. The Federal Reserve’s January interest rate decision maintained the rate, with good economic performance and still high inflation levels, while easing expectations have somewhat cooled. The US January non-farm data showed average performance, with new job numbers decreasing below expectations; the unemployment rate fell slightly, marginally better than expectations; January’s CPI year-on-year slightly warmed, a bit higher than expectations.

Technical Analysis:

Gold prices have performed strongly recently, with current prices near previous high resistance levels, showing minor fluctuations and no signs of weakening, with short-term strategies focused on buying on dips while taking profits on rebounds; attention to whether prices can reach new highs. From a larger timeframe, the upward structure remains intact, with daily fluctuations moving upward and prices repeatedly hitting new highs. The upper resistance level is likely around 2980-3000, while the lower minor support level is around 2850-2870.

Viewpoint: Strong fluctuations; focus on short positions during dips, taking profits on rebounds.

*The pre-market viewpoint is time-sensitive and limited, belongs to forecasting, is for reference and learning only, and does not constitute investment advice; operate at your own risk. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

In February’s EIA monthly report, expectations for global oil demand growth in the current and next year are maintained, with a slight adjustment to oil prices in 2025; OPEC’s monthly report also maintains growth expectations for global oil demand for this year and next; the IEA’s monthly report slightly raises the expectation for global oil demand growth in 2025. At the beginning of February, the OPEC+ meeting adhered to the previous oil production agreement, with the committee agreeing to gradually increase oil production starting April 1, in line with previous plans. EIA crude oil inventories have increased for four consecutive weeks, with recent data showing significant volatility that may impact the supply-demand structure.

Technical Analysis:

US crude oil saw a significant drop in Friday’s night session, with a weak performance in the short cycle and potential selling pressure from above. The current price is in an important support structure, with short-term fluctuations expected, and attention should be paid to signs of stabilization. If this structure is broken, the trend could weaken further. Overall, oil prices are showing a strong fluctuation pattern with signs of stabilization at a larger level, entering a short-term correction. Resistance is found around the area of 79-80, while support is around 69-70.

Viewpoint: Short-term fluctuations, with the support area not broken, focus on signs of stabilization.

*The pre-market viewpoint is time-sensitive and limited, belongs to forecasting, is for reference and learning only, and does not constitute investment advice; operate at your own risk. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

At the end of January, the European Central Bank’s interest rate decision marked its fourth consecutive rate cut of 25 basis points. Inflation is generally in line with expectations, and it is expected to return to mid-term targets this year. The economy still faces challenges and may continue to be weak in the short term, but income and policy effects support a rebound in demand. At the end of January, the Federal Reserve decided to maintain interest rates, with overall economic performance being strong and easing expectations somewhat alleviated. The US January non-farm payrolls showed average performance, with a decrease in new jobs and a slight drop in the unemployment rate, slightly better than expected; the US January CPI showed a slight increase year-on-year. Attention is on the manufacturing PMI value for the Eurozone this Friday.

Technical Analysis:

The euro has recently shown a strong performance, currently at a recent resistance level, with a short cycle showing fluctuations and potential signs of breaking upwards. If there is a clear breakout from the structure, the trend will strengthen further, with a short-term focus on low-buy opportunities during pullbacks. Overall, the price is at a relatively low level, with a daily fluctuation structure, potentially signaling stabilization at a larger level. The small-level resistance area is around 1.0500-1.0550, while the support area is around 1.0180-1.0200.

Viewpoint: Strong fluctuations, focus on low-buy opportunities during pullbacks, and watch if the resistance structure can be clearly broken.

*The pre-market viewpoint is time-sensitive and limited, belongs to forecasting, is for reference and learning only, and does not constitute investment advice; operate at your own risk. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.