HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0226

Time	Data and Events	Importance
To be determined	The G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meeting will be held until February 27.	★★★
05:30	U.S. API crude oil inventory for the week ending February 21.	★★★
08:30	Australia’s January weighted CPI annual rate.	★★★
15:00	Germany’s March Gfk Consumer Confidence Index.	★★★
17:00	Switzerland’s February ZEW Investor Confidence Index.	★★★
23:00	U.S. new home sales annualized total for January.	★★★
23:30	U.S. EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending February 21.	★★★★
	U.S. EIA Cushing crude oil inventory for the week ending February 21.	★★★
	U.S. EIA Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventory for the week ending February 21.	★★★
Next day 01:00	FOMC voting member Bostic will speak about economic outlook and the housing market.	★★★

Varieties	Perspective	Support range	Resistance range
U.S. Dollar Index	Slightly weak fluctuations	105.5-106	108.5-109
Gold	Slightly strong fluctuations	2850-2870	2980-3000
Crude Oil	Slightly weak fluctuations	66-67	72-73
Euro	Slightly strong fluctuations	1.0180-1.0200	1.0500-1.0550

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and have limitations; they are predictions for reference and learning purposes only, not investment advice. Trading risks are borne by the trader. Investment comes with risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

At the end of January, the Federal Reserve meeting decided to maintain interest rates, the labor market remains strong, economic activity is expanding steadily, and inflation levels are still slightly high. Expectations for loose monetary policy have cooled, and attention will focus on new government policies. In January, non-farm payroll data showed a decrease in new jobs to 143,000, below expectations, while the unemployment rate fell slightly to 4.0%, indicating a strong labor market. The January unadjusted CPI annual rate recorded 3.0%, slightly above the previous value and expectations. The January ISM Manufacturing PMI value showed a slight increase. Attention will be on Friday’s U.S. Core PCE price index.

Technical Analysis:

The U.S. Dollar Index has shown slight fluctuations during the day, with a slowdown in the rate of decline in the short cycle. The current support area has not been significantly breached, but there may be selling pressure above. The outlook is for continued slightly weak fluctuations; a break below the support structure may open further downward space. Overall, there are signs of weakening after high-level fluctuations on the daily chart, and a weak pullback may continue in the short term. The small level pressure area above is around 108.5-109, and the support area below is around 105.5-106.

Viewpoint: Slightly weak fluctuations; if there are short positions, consider reducing them on dips, and focus on the effectiveness of the support structure.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and have limitations; they are predictions for reference and learning purposes only, not investment advice. Trading risks are borne by the trader. Investment comes with risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East continue to worsen, while the situation in Eastern Europe remains turbulent and uncertain. The European Central Bank’s interest rate decision at the end of January was a consecutive fourth rate cut of 25 basis points, with inflation generally meeting expectations, but the economy is still under pressure due to weak performance. At the end of January, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision maintained the current rate, citing good economic activity, although inflation levels remain high, reducing expectations for rate cuts. The U.S. non-farm payroll data for January performed moderately, with new job numbers declining and falling short of expectations, while the unemployment rate slightly improved, performing slightly better than expected; the year-on-year CPI for January saw a slight rise, slightly above expectations.

Technical Analysis:

Gold prices saw a significant drop in the night trading session, indicating potential selling pressure above, while there is also support below. The short cycle may be somewhat volatile, recommending taking profits on long positions at highs, while the primary focus in the short term remains on stabilization signals with a low-buy strategy. On a larger time scale, the upward structure remains intact, with daily fluctuations moving upward and prices frequently reaching new highs. The resistance zone above may be around 2980-3000, with a lower support zone near 2850-2870.

Viewpoint: The market is showing a strong oscillation; maintain a short-term long strategy and take profits at highs.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and have limitations; they are predictions for reference and learning purposes only, not investment advice. Trading risks are borne by the trader. Investment comes with risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The February EIA monthly report maintains the global crude oil demand growth forecast for this year and next year, with a slight adjustment to the 2025 crude oil price. The OPEC monthly report also maintains the global crude oil demand growth forecast for this year and next year. The IEA monthly report slightly raises the global oil demand growth forecast for 2025. At the beginning of February, the OPEC+ meeting adhered to the previous oil production agreements, with the committee agreeing to gradually increase oil production starting from April 1, consistent with previous plans. EIA crude oil inventories have increased for the fourth consecutive week, with this data exhibiting considerable recent fluctuations. Pay attention to the EIA crude oil inventory report on Wednesday.

Technical Analysis:

U.S. crude oil saw a significant drop yesterday, with the support structure clearly breaking, indicating signs of weakening in the market. Current prices are at relatively low levels, with the short cycle potentially seeing back-and-forth fluctuations; those holding short positions may take profits on dips. Overall, crude oil prices are showing a strong oscillation, with signs of stabilization in the larger time scale and entering a short-term correction. The resistance zone above is around 72-73, while the support zone below is around 66-67.

Viewpoint: Oscillation is slightly weak; take profits on short positions when prices dip.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and have limitations; they are predictions for reference and learning purposes only, not investment advice. Trading risks are borne by the trader. Investment comes with risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The European Central Bank’s interest rate decision at the end of January was a continuous fourth rate cut of 25 basis points, with inflation generally meeting expectations and aimed at returning to the mid-term target this year, although the economy still faces challenges, and short-term performance may continue to be weak, while income and policy effects support demand recovery. At the end of January, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision maintained the current rate, with overall economic performance being strong and easing expectations being alleviated. The U.S. non-farm payroll data for January performed moderately, with new job numbers declining, while the unemployment rate slightly improved, performing slightly better than expected; the U.S. CPI year-on-year rate saw a slight rise. The manufacturing PMI in the Eurozone showed little change.

Technical Analysis:

The euro fluctuated slightly during the day, with the short cycle making several attempts to breach the resistance level, yet failing to clearly break through. The short-term outlook still favors long positions, suggesting a low-buy strategy on pullbacks; any obvious breakout from the resistance structure could lead to further strengthening of the market. Overall, prices are in a relatively low range, exhibiting a daily oscillation structure, with potential large-scale stabilization signals. The upper resistance area is around 1.0500-1.0550, while the support area below is around 1.0180-1.0200.

Viewpoint: Oscillation is slightly strong; watch for low-buy opportunities during pullbacks and see if the resistance structure can be clearly broken.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and have limitations; they are predictions for reference and learning purposes only, not investment advice. Trading risks are borne by the trader. Investment comes with risks; trading requires caution.