HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0227

Time	Data and Events	Importance
16:55	Adjusted unemployment figures for Germany in February	★★★
	Adjusted unemployment rate for Germany in February	★★★
18:00	Eurozone industrial confidence index for February	★★★
	Eurozone economic confidence index for February	★★★
20:30	European Central Bank releases minutes from January monetary policy meeting	★★★
21:30	Canada’s current account for the fourth quarter	★★★
	Initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending February 22	★★★★
	Revised annualized quarter-on-quarter GDP for the U.S. in the fourth quarter	★★★
	U.S. durable goods orders month-on-month for January	★★★
22:15	FOMC voting member Schmied publishes remarks on economic issues	★★★
23:00	Federal Reserve Board member Barr gives speech on “new activity regulation”	★★★
	U.S. index of existing home sales month-on-month for January	★★★
23:30	EIA natural gas inventories in the U.S. for the week ending February 21	★★★
Next day 00:45	Federal Reserve Board member Bowman speaks on “community banks”	★★★
Next day 04:15	FOMC voting member Harker comments on economic outlook	★★★

Variety	Viewpoints	Support Range	Resistance Range
U.S. Dollar Index	Fluctuating, slightly weak	105.5-106	108.5-109
Gold	Short-term adjustment	2850-2870	2980-3000
Crude Oil	Fluctuating, slightly weak	66-67	72-73
Euro	Fluctuating, slightly strong	1.0180-1.0200	1.0500-1.0550

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited and are only for reference and learning purposes; they do not constitute investment advice, and the operational risk is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

At the end of January, the Federal Reserve meeting decided to maintain interest rates. The labor market remains strong, economic activity is expanding steadily, and inflation levels are still slightly high. The expectation for loose monetary policy has somewhat cooled, and there will be a focus on new government policies. January non-farm data showed new job creation dropped to 143,000, lower than expected, while the unemployment rate slightly fell to 4.0%, indicating a robust labor market. The seasonally unadjusted CPI year-on-year for January was recorded at 3.0%, slightly above both previous and expected values. The ISM manufacturing PMI for January showed a slight increase. Attention is on the U.S. core PCE price index reported this Friday.

Technical Analysis:

The U.S. Dollar Index continues a fluctuating trend, with a slowing down of the drop in the short term and signs of consolidation appearing. The current support area has not been significantly breached, so it is not advisable to excessively short; a fluctuation or rebound trend may occur in the short term. If the support structure is breached, it may open up further downward space. Overall, after oscillating at high levels, there are signs of weakening; a short-term continuation of weak correction is possible. The upper small-level resistance area is around 108.5-109, with a lower support range of 105.5-106.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating, slightly weak; the speed of decline is slowing down, pay attention to the effectiveness of the support structure.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited and are only for reference and learning purposes; they do not constitute investment advice, and the operational risk is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East continue to worsen, the situation in Eastern Europe is turbulent, and there is uncertainty. At the end of January, the European Central Bank decided to cut interest rates for the fourth consecutive time by 25 basis points, with inflation basically meeting expectations, but the economy remains weak and under pressure. In January, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, with good economic activity but still high inflation levels, easing rate cut expectations. The U.S. non-farm payroll data for January performed average, with the number of new jobs decreasing, below expectations, while the unemployment rate slightly fell, performing slightly better than expected; the annual CPI for January saw a slight increase, slightly higher than expected.

Technical Analysis:

Gold prices dipped slightly during the day, with a minor adjustment in the short cycle; they are currently close to a small support area, which may lead to sideways movement. If this area is breached, further market correction may follow. In the long term, the rising structure remains intact, with daily fluctuations trending upwards, and prices reaching new highs repeatedly. The upper pressure zone may be around 2980-3000, while the lower small support zone is around 2850-2870.

Viewpoint: Short-term adjustment, likely to see sideways market conditions; focus on the effectiveness of support structures.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited and are only for reference and learning purposes; they do not constitute investment advice, and the operational risk is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

In the February EIA monthly report, the global oil demand growth forecast for this and next year was maintained, with a slight adjustment to oil prices in 2025; in the OPEC monthly report, the forecast for global oil demand growth for this and next year was maintained; the IEA monthly report slightly raised the forecast for global oil demand growth in 2025. At the beginning of February, an OPEC+ meeting adhered to the previous oil production agreement, with the committee agreeing to gradually increase oil production starting on April 1, in line with previous plans. EIA crude oil inventories decreased, which is lower than expected and may affect the supply-demand structure.

Technical Analysis:

U.S. crude oil fluctuated slightly yesterday, with a weak performance in the short cycle. Current prices are at relatively low levels, and excessive short selling is not advisable. If there are short positions, it is recommended to reduce at lows to take profits and pay attention to the effectiveness of support areas. Overall, oil prices are fluctuating slightly stronger, showing signs of stabilization in a larger cycle, with a short-term adjustment. The upper pressure area is near 72-73, while the lower support area is near 66-67.

Viewpoint: Slightly weak fluctuations; reduce short positions to take profits at lows.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited and are only for reference and learning purposes; they do not constitute investment advice, and the operational risk is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

At the end of January, the European Central Bank decided to cut interest rates for the fourth consecutive time by 25 basis points; inflation basically meets expectations, and it will return to mid-term targets this year, although the economy still faces challenges. In the short term, it may continue to be weak, but income and policy effects may support a rebound in demand. The Federal Reserve’s decision at the end of January kept interest rates unchanged, and the overall economic performance was strong, easing expectations for policy loosening. The U.S. non-farm payrolls for January performed average, with a decrease in new jobs, while the unemployment rate slightly fell, performing slightly better than expected; the annual CPI for January showed a slight increase. The manufacturing PMI value in the Eurozone changed little.

Technical Analysis:

The euro price slightly rose and then fell back in the nighttime market, with multiple attempts to push past pressure levels but not breaking clearly; short-term fluctuations may occur, and caution is advised regarding the risk of market correction. Overall, prices are at relatively low levels, showing a daily fluctuating structure, which may indicate signals of stabilization in a larger cycle. The upper small pressure region is around 1.0500-1.0550, while the lower support region is around 1.0180-1.0200.

Viewpoint: Fluctuations are slightly strong, with multiple failures to break through pressure structures; caution is advised regarding potential short-term market corrections.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited and are only for reference and learning purposes; they do not constitute investment advice, and the operational risk is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.