HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0303

Time	Data and Events	Importance
16:50	France’s February Manufacturing PMI Final Value	★★★
16:55	Germany’s February Manufacturing PMI Preliminary Value	★★★
17:00	Eurozone’s February Manufacturing PMI Final Value	★★★
17:30	UK’s February Manufacturing PMI Final Value	★★★
	UK’s January Bank of England Mortgage Approvals	★★★
18:00	Eurozone’s February CPI Year-on-Year Preliminary Value	★★★
	Eurozone’s February CPI Month-on-Month Preliminary Value	★★★
22:45	US’s February S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final Value	★★★
23:00	US’s February ISM Manufacturing PMI	★★★★
	US’s January Construction Spending Month-on-Month	★★★

Variety	Viewpoint	Support Zone	Resistance Zone
US Dollar Index	Fluctuating Weak	105.5-106	108.5-109
Gold	Fluctuating Correction	2830-2850	2900-2920
Crude Oil	Fluctuating Weak	66-67	72-73
Euro	Short-term Adjustment	1.0180-1.0200	1.0500-1.0550

*Pre-market viewpoints are time-sensitive and limited, representing predictions only for learning purposes, and do not constitute investment advice. The investment carries risks, trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

At the end of January, the Federal Reserve’s meeting maintained the interest rate unchanged, with a strong labor market and robust economic expansion, while inflation levels remained slightly elevated, leading to a cooling of expectations for monetary policy easing, focusing on new government policies. January non-farm data showed the number of new jobs decreased to 143,000, below expectations, while the unemployment rate slightly declined to 4.0%, indicating a stable labor market. The seasonally adjusted CPI year-on-year for January recorded at 3.0%, slightly above forecasted and previous values. January core PCE price index year-on-year slightly retreated, in line with expectations.

Technical Analysis:

The US Dollar Index saw a significant rebound last week, with a small cycle of upward fluctuations; however, there may be selling pressure above, making excessive bullish outlook unadvisable. Attention should be paid to the higher pressure area; if signs of weakness appear, short positions could be considered. Overall, after high-level fluctuations on the daily chart, signs of weakness may emerge, and a short-term continuation of weak corrections should be anticipated. The upper minor pressure area is around 108.5-109, while the lower support area is around 105.5-106.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating Weak, with a short-term rebound, focus on upper pressure area.

*Pre-market viewpoints are time-sensitive and limited, representing predictions only for learning purposes, and do not constitute investment advice. The investment carries risks, trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

Ongoing deterioration of Middle Eastern geopolitical conflicts, instability in Eastern Europe, and existing uncertainties. The European Central Bank’s rate decision at the end of January led to a fourth consecutive 25 basis points rate cut, with inflation broadly meeting expectations; the economy remains weak and faces pressure. The Federal Reserve’s rate decision at the end of January maintained interest rates unchanged, with good economic activity but elevated inflation levels, alleviating expectations for rate cuts. The January US non-farm data performed moderately, with a decrease in new employment below expectations, while the unemployment rate experienced a slight decline, which is slightly better than expected; the January CPI year-on-year saw a slight increase, slightly above expectations.

Technical Analysis:

Gold prices have oscillated downward on the daily chart, experiencing a significant decline, with potential selling pressure above and a clear support area below that has not been significantly broken. Short-term oscillation and rebound are expected, with attention to the pressure structure above. At that time, combined with candlestick signals, short selling opportunities can be attempted. From a larger cycle perspective, the upward structure remains intact, with daily oscillation moving upwards and prices reaching new highs repeatedly. The upper resistance level may be near 2900-2920, while the lower minor support level may be around 2830-2850.

Opinion: Oscillation and pullback, short-term rebound, paying attention to the pressure structure above.

*Pre-market viewpoints are time-sensitive and limited, representing predictions only for learning purposes, and do not constitute investment advice. The investment carries risks, trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The February EIA monthly report maintains the global crude oil demand growth forecast for this and next year, with slight adjustments to the crude oil prices in 2025; the OPEC monthly report also maintains the growth forecast for global crude oil demand for this and next year; the IEA monthly report slightly raises the forecast for global oil demand growth in 2025. At the beginning of February, the OPEC+ meeting adhered to the previous oil production agreements, and the committee agreed to gradually increase oil production starting from April 1, consistent with prior plans. EIA crude oil inventories decreased, falling short of expectations, which may affect the supply-demand structure.

Technical Analysis:

US crude oil experienced a slight rebound last Friday, with a short-term oscillating trend. The current minor pressure area has not been clearly broken through, and there may be selling pressure above. In the short term, combined with candlestick signals, high short opportunities can be attempted. The price is at a relatively low level, and timely profits should be secured. Overall, crude oil prices show a strong oscillation, with signs of stabilization in the larger cycle, entering a short-term pullback. The upper pressure area is around 72-73, while the lower support area is around 66-67.

Opinion: Oscillation is slightly weak, short-term rebound, paying attention to the pressure level above.

*Pre-market viewpoints are time-sensitive and limited, representing predictions only for learning purposes, and do not constitute investment advice. The investment carries risks, trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The European Central Bank’s interest rate decision at the end of January included a fourth consecutive rate cut of 25 basis points, with inflation generally in line with expectations. It is expected to return to mid-term targets this year, although the economy still faces challenges and may remain weak in the short term, supported by income and policy effects driving demand recovery. At the end of January, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, with overall economic performance remaining strong, alleviating some of the easing expectations. The US non-farm payrolls in January showed mediocre performance with a decrease in new employment numbers, while the unemployment rate slightly dropped, performing slightly better than expected; the US CPI annual rate showed a slight uptick in January. Manufacturing PMI in the Eurozone showed little change.

Technical Analysis:

The euro’s price showed slight oscillation during the day, with signs of slowing down in the decline. There is pressure above and support below, and oscillation adjustments may continue in the short term. Attention should be paid to stability signals, at which time short-term long opportunities can be attempted. Attention should also be paid to whether the pressure structure above can be clearly broken. Overall, the price is at a relatively low level, with daily oscillation structure, and large-scale stabilization signals may appear. The minor pressure area above is around 1.0500-1.0550, while the support area below is around 1.0180-1.0200.

Opinion: Short-term adjustment, with pressure above and support below, potentially leading to an oscillating market.

*Pre-market viewpoints are time-sensitive and limited, representing predictions only for learning purposes, and do not constitute investment advice. The investment carries risks, trading requires caution.