HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0225

Time	Data and Events	Importance
15:00	Germany’s preliminary GDP year-on-year for the fourth quarter, not seasonally adjusted	★★★
19:00	UK February CBI retail sales balance	★★★
22:00	US December FHFA house price index month-on-month	★★★
	US December S&P/CS 20-city composite house price index year-on-year	★★★
23:00	US February Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index	★★★
	US February Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index	★★★
The next day 00:45	Federal Reserve Governor Barr speaks on financial stability	★★★
The next day 02:00	2027 FOMC voting member Barkin speaks on inflation	★★★

Variety	Viewpoint	Support Range	Resistance Range
US Dollar Index	Fluctuating weaker	105.5-106	108.5-109
Gold	Fluctuating stronger	2850-2870	2980-3000
Crude Oil	Short-term fluctuations	69-70	79-80
Euro	Fluctuating stronger	1.0180-1.0200	1.0500-1.0550

*Pre-market views, time-sensitive and limited, are speculative only, for reference and learning purposes, not constituting investment advice. Investment involves risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

At the end of January, the Federal Reserve meeting maintained interest rates unchanged, with a strong labor market and robust economic expansion. Inflation levels still remain slightly high, leading to a cooling of monetary policy easing expectations, with a focus on new government policies. January’s non-farm data showed a decrease in new jobs to 143,000, below expectations, while the unemployment rate slightly fell to 4.0%, indicating a steady labor market. January’s unadjusted CPI year-on-year recorded at 3.0%, slightly higher than previous values and expectations. The January ISM manufacturing PMI increased slightly. Attention is given to the US core PCE price index on Friday.

Technical Analysis:

The US Dollar Index rebounded slightly yesterday, with the support area not significantly broken; however, there may be selling pressure above. The short term may maintain a downward oscillation mindset; if it breaks the support structure, it may further open the downside. Overall, after a high position oscillation, there are signs of weakening, and the short term may continue to adjust weakly. The small resistance area above is around 108.5-109, while the support area below is around 105.5-106.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating weaker; in the short term, one can attempt to seek opportunities for rebounding high short positions.

*Pre-market views, time-sensitive and limited, are speculative only, for reference and learning purposes, not constituting investment advice. Investment involves risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East continues to worsen, and the situation in Eastern Europe is unstable, creating uncertainties. At the end of January, the European Central Bank’s interest rate decision saw a fourth consecutive 25 basis point cut, with inflation basically meeting expectations, while economic performance remains weak and under pressure. At the end of January, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate resolution maintained rates unchanged, with good economic activity and high inflation levels, leading to a alleviation of rate cut expectations. The US non-farm data for January showed average performance, with new jobs decreasing and below expectations, while the unemployment rate slightly fell, outperforming expectations; the January CPI year-on-year saw a slight uptick, slightly higher than expectations.

Technical Analysis:

The gold price has recently shown slight fluctuations, remaining at a relatively high level, but has not shown signs of weakening. In the short term, the main strategy is to look for dips to go long while reducing holdings to take profits at highs, and also to pay attention to whether the price can reach new highs. From a larger cycle perspective, the upward structure is intact, with daily fluctuations showing an upward trend and prices frequently reaching new highs. The upper resistance level may be around 2980-3000, while the lower small support level is around 2850-2870.

Viewpoint: Slightly strong fluctuations, mainly focusing on short-term long strategies and taking profits at high points.

*Pre-market views, time-sensitive and limited, are speculative only, for reference and learning purposes, not constituting investment advice. Investment involves risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The February EIA monthly report maintains the global oil demand growth forecast for this and next year, with a slight adjustment to the 2025 oil price; the OPEC monthly report maintains the global oil demand growth forecast for this and next year; the IEA monthly report slightly raises the global oil demand growth forecast for 2025. At the beginning of February, the OPEC+ meeting adhered to the previous oil production agreement, and the committee agreed to gradually increase oil production starting from April 1, consistent with previous plans. EIA crude oil inventories have increased for the fourth consecutive week, with recent data showing significant fluctuations. Pay attention to the EIA crude oil inventory report on Wednesday.

Technical Analysis:

US crude oil has seen a slight rebound on the daily chart, with small fluctuations trending upwards. The price has repeatedly tested the support area without breaking below, but there may be selling pressure above. In the short term, a fluctuation may occur, and attention should be paid to signs of stabilization. If the support structure is broken, the market may further weaken. Overall, the crude oil price shows slightly strong fluctuations, with signs of stability at a larger level, and a short-term correction is entering. The upper resistance area is around 79-80, while the lower support area is around 69-70.

Viewpoint: Short-term fluctuations, with the support area not broken. Pay attention to signs of stabilization.

*Pre-market views, time-sensitive and limited, are speculative only, for reference and learning purposes, not constituting investment advice. Investment involves risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The European Central Bank’s rate decision at the end of January resulted in a 25 basis point cut for the fourth consecutive time. Inflation is generally in line with expectations, and is expected to return to the medium-term target this year; the economy still faces challenges and may continue to weaken in the short term. The income and policy effects support a rebound in demand. At the end of January, the Federal Reserve’s rate decision maintained interest rates, with overall economic performance remaining strong, and expectations for easing have somewhat lessened. The US non-farm payrolls for January were average, with a decrease in the number of new jobs, while the unemployment rate slightly fell, slightly better than expected; the US CPI annual rate warmed slightly in January. There was little change in the Eurozone manufacturing PMI.

Technical Analysis:

The euro price rose slightly yesterday but fell back, having not made a significant breakthrough at the resistance area. The short-term trend is slightly volatile, with slight dominance by bulls, and the strategy remains focused on dips to go long. If there is a significant breakthrough above the resistance structure, the market may strengthen further. Overall, the price is at a relatively low level, with daily volatility possibly indicating signs of stability at a larger level. The upper small-level resistance area is around 1.0500-1.0550, while the lower support area is around 1.0180-1.0200.

Viewpoint: Slightly strong fluctuations, focusing on opportunities to go long on dips and on whether the resistance structure can be significantly broken.

*Pre-market views, time-sensitive and limited, are speculative only, for reference and learning purposes, not constituting investment advice. Investment involves risks; trading requires caution.