HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0210

Time	Data and Events	Importance
07:50	Japan’s December trade balance	★★★
17:30	Eurozone February Sentix Investor Confidence Index	★★★
22:00	European Central Bank President Lagarde participates in a plenary debate on the ECB’s 2023 Annual Report	★★★
Next day 00:00	U.S. January New York Fed 1-Year Inflation Expectations	★★★

Varieties	Perspectives	Support Range	Resistance Range
U.S. Dollar Index	High-level fluctuations	107-107.5	110-111
Gold	Fluctuating with a strong bias	2780-2800	2900-2920
Crude Oil	Short-term pullback	69-70	79-80
Euro	Short-term fluctuations	1.0180-1.0200	1.0500-1.0550

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are merely forecasts, and are for reference and learning only. They do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by individuals. Investment has risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

At the end of January, the Federal Reserve meeting maintained interest rates, the labor market remained strong, economic activity was steadily expanding, and inflation levels were still slightly high. The expectations for monetary policy easing have cooled, and attention will be on new government policies. In January, non-farm payroll data showed an addition of 143,000 jobs, lower than expected, while the unemployment rate slightly decreased to 4.0%, indicating a robust labor market. The core PCE price index in December was flat with the previous value; the ISM manufacturing PMI in January increased slightly. Pay attention to the Senate hearing with the Federal Reserve Chairman on Tuesday and the January non-seasonally adjusted CPI year-on-year rate on Wednesday.

Technical Analysis:

The U.S. Dollar Index has shown fluctuating performance recently, with prices at relatively high levels but not significantly breaking the support structure. There are signs of stability in the short term, and it may continue to test resistance levels upwards. In the short term, it may maintain a fluctuating pattern, with attention on whether it can create new highs. Overall, the larger scale shows a strong fluctuating trend, with a short-term adjustment entering. The important resistance area is near 110-111, while the support area is near 107-107.5.

Perspective: Fluctuating at a high level, support has not been broken, with signs of stability in the short cycle.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are merely forecasts, and are for reference and learning only. They do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by individuals. Investment has risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East continue to worsen, and the situation in Eastern Europe remains turbulent, presenting uncertainties. The European Central Bank’s interest rate decision at the end of January involved a continuous fourth rate cut of 25 basis points, with inflation generally meeting expectations. However, the economic performance remains weak and under pressure. At the end of January, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision maintained rates, with good economic activity and inflation levels still high, easing expectations for rate cuts. The U.S. January non-farm payroll data showed general performance, with the number of new jobs added lower than expected, while the unemployment rate slightly decreased, which was somewhat better than expected. Pay attention to the U.S. CPI year-on-year rate on Wednesday.

Technical Analysis:

Gold prices performed strongly last week, showing a daily upward oscillation, but there may be selling pressure above. Currently, there are fluctuations in the short cycle; if there are long positions, it is recommended to take profits during highs and generally maintain a buying strategy on dips while watching for new highs. From a larger cycle perspective, the ascending structure remains intact, and it is currently in a high-level fluctuation. Attention should be paid to the possibility of creating new highs. The upper resistance level may be near 2900-2920, while the lower small-scale support level is near 2780-2800.

Perspective: Fluctuating with a strong bias, with a focus on short-term buying strategies and taking profits during highs.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are merely forecasts, and are for reference and learning only. They do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by individuals. Investment has risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

In the January EIA monthly report, the crude oil price for 2025 was slightly adjusted upwards; the OPEC monthly report maintained the forecast for global crude oil demand growth in 2025 and slightly adjusted the global economic growth forecast for 2025-2026 upwards; the IEA monthly report slightly adjusted down its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2025. At the beginning of February, the OPEC+ meeting reaffirmed the previous oil production agreement, and the committee agreed to gradually increase oil production starting from April 1, in line with previous plans. Attention is on the monthly reports from OPEC and the other two major organizations, as well as EIA crude oil inventories.

Technical Analysis:

US crude oil experienced a significant correction last week, with daily fluctuations moving downwards. The current price is near a crucial support area, and those holding short positions may consider reducing their holdings at lower levels to take profits. Although there are signs of short-term fluctuations, attention is on signs of stabilization, at which point opportunities to buy on dips may be considered. Overall, crude oil prices exhibit strong fluctuations, with signs of stabilization at a larger scale, and a short-term correction has begun. The upper pressure zone is around 79-80, while the lower support area is around 69-70.

Opinion: Short-term correction approaching the support area; short positions may take profits at lower levels while watching for signs of stabilization.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are merely forecasts, and are for reference and learning only. They do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by individuals. Investment has risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

At the end of January, the European Central Bank’s interest rate decision lowered rates by 25 basis points for the fourth consecutive time, with inflation largely meeting expectations and projected to return to the mid-term target this year. The economy still faces challenges and may continue to be weak in the short term, but income and policy effects support demand recovery. At the end of January, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision kept rates unchanged, with overall economic performance being strong and easing expectations somewhat alleviated. US non-farm payrolls for January were average, with new job numbers decreasing and under expectations, while the unemployment rate slightly fell, performing a bit better than expected. Attention is on the US CPI year-on-year figures on Wednesday.

Technical Analysis:

The euro price opened low last week but rebounded, failing to break through the pressure structure, showing weak fluctuations in the short cycle. It may retest the support area again, and a short position could be attempted, with the need to take profits promptly. Attention should be on the support structure below; if it breaks, the trend may weaken further. Overall, the daily performance is a downward fluctuation with a weaker showing in the larger scale, but a short-term rebound is occurring. The smaller level pressure zone is around 1.0500-1.0550, while the lower support area is around 1.0180-1.0200.

Opinion: Short-term fluctuations with pressure above and support below; watch for the direction of the breakout in the future.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are merely forecasts, and are for reference and learning only. They do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by individuals. Investment has risks; trading requires caution.