HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0213

Time	Data and Events	Importance
15:00	Germany’s January CPI final monthly rate	★★★
	UK’s fourth quarter GDP annual rate final	★★★
	UK’s December manufacturing output monthly rate	★★★
	UK’s December adjusted trade balance for goods	★★★
	UK’s December industrial output monthly rate	★★★
	UK’s December three-month GDP monthly rate	★★★
15:30	Switzerland’s January CPI monthly rate	★★★
17:00	IEA publishes monthly oil market report	★★★
18:00	Eurozone’s December industrial output monthly rate	★★★
21:30	U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending February 8	★★★★
	U.S. January PPI annual rate	★★★
	U.S. January PPI monthly rate	★★★
23:30	U.S. EIA natural gas inventory for the week ending February 7	★★★

Variety	Perspective	Support range	Resistance range
Dollar Index	High-level fluctuations	107-107.5	110-111
Gold	Fluctuating with a slight upward trend	2850-2870	2980-3000
Oil	Short-term fluctuations	69-70	79-80
Euro	Short-term fluctuations	1.0180-1.0200	1.0500-1.0550

*Pre-market perspective, time-sensitive and limited, belongs to prediction, for reference and learning only, does not constitute investment advice, operating risks are self-assumed. Investment carries risks, trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

In January’s Federal Reserve meeting, the interest rate was kept unchanged, the labor market remains strong, economic activity is steadily expanding, and inflation levels still seem slightly high, with expectations for monetary policy easing cooling, focusing on new government policies. January’s non-farm data showed a decrease in new jobs to 143,000, below expectations, while the unemployment rate slightly fell to 4.0%, indicating a robust labor market. The unadjusted CPI annual rate for January recorded at 3.0%, slightly above previous values and expectations. The December core PCE price index remained the same as the previous value; the January ISM manufacturing PMI showed a slight increase.

Technical Analysis:

The dollar index experienced a rise and fall during off-hours trading, with the current cycle showing fluctuations, positioned at a relatively high level, where prices are testing a minor support area again, monitoring the effectiveness of this support. If it breaks down, the market may further correct. Overall, the major level shows a strong upward trend, while the short term is entering an adjustment phase. Major resistance areas are around 110-111, while support areas are around 107-107.5.

Viewpoint: High-level fluctuations, with prices again testing support levels, attention to support effectiveness.

*Pre-market perspective, time-sensitive and limited, belongs to prediction, for reference and learning only, does not constitute investment advice, operating risks are self-assumed. Investment carries risks, trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East continues to worsen, and the situation in Eastern Europe is unstable, presenting uncertainties. In January, the European Central Bank’s interest rate decision led to a fourth consecutive 25 basis point reduction; inflation is largely in line with expectations, but the economy is still under pressure. In January’s Federal Reserve interest rate decision, the rate was maintained unchanged, with good economic activity and still high inflation levels, easing expectations for rate cuts. The January non-farm data showed average performance with a decrease in new jobs below expectations, while the unemployment rate slightly fell, being slightly better than expected; the annual CPI rate in January saw a slight rise, slightly above expectations.

Technical Analysis:

The gold price fell significantly in the night market, but after stabilizing in the short term, it resumed rising. The short-term performance remains strong, and it may test the resistance level upwards. Hold long positions with profits at high points, primarily focusing on buying on dips, and pay attention to whether the price can reach a new high. From a longer-term perspective, the upward structure is intact, the daily line is fluctuating upwards, and prices are repeatedly reaching new highs. The upper resistance level is likely around 2980-3000, while the lower minor support level is around 2850-2870.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating slightly upwards, primarily focusing on short positions and taking profits at high points.

*Pre-market perspective, time-sensitive and limited, belongs to prediction, for reference and learning only, does not constitute investment advice, operating risks are self-assumed. Investment carries risks, trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The February EIA monthly report maintains the global crude oil demand growth forecast for this year and next year, with a slight adjustment to the crude oil price for 2025; the OPEC monthly report maintains the global crude oil demand growth forecast for this year and next year. At the beginning of February, the OPEC+ meeting agreed to adhere to the previous oil production agreement and approved a gradual increase in oil production starting from April 1, consistent with previous plans. EIA crude oil inventories increased significantly, with these data fluctuating greatly recently. Pay attention to the IEA monthly report on Thursday.

Technical Analysis:

US crude oil fell sharply yesterday, with a weak performance in the short term. The current price has fallen back to the support area below without showing signs of stabilizing, and it may fluctuate in the short term. Overall, crude oil prices are fluctuating slightly upwards, with signs of stability at a larger level, but in the short term, it is entering a correction. The upper pressure area is around 79-80, while the lower support area is around 69-70.

Viewpoint: Short-term fluctuations, near the support area, pay attention to signs of a second rebound and stabilization.

*Pre-market perspective, time-sensitive and limited, belongs to prediction, for reference and learning only, does not constitute investment advice, operating risks are self-assumed. Investment carries risks, trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The European Central Bank’s interest rate decision at the end of January resulted in a fourth consecutive reduction of 25 basis points. Inflation is generally in line with expectations, and it is expected to return to the medium-term target this year, although the economy still faces challenges and may continue to be weak in the short term. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision at the end of January maintained rates unchanged; the overall economic performance is strong, and expectations for easing have eased somewhat. The US non-farm payroll data for January was average, with new jobs decreasing and not meeting expectations, while the unemployment rate slightly fell and was slightly better than expected. The US CPI year-on-year rate rose slightly in January, slightly higher than expected.

Technical Analysis:

The euro price slightly increased yesterday, showing signs of stabilization after a short-term pullback. It may continue to rise in the short term, with attention to whether the upper pressure structure can break through; otherwise, the market may continue to fluctuate widely within a range. Overall, the price is at a relatively low level, with a daily fluctuating structure, and no large-scale stabilization signal has yet appeared. The upper minor pressure area is around 1.0500-1.0550, while the lower support area is around 1.0180-1.0200.

Viewpoint: Short-term fluctuations, with pressure above and support below, pay attention to the direction of the breakout in the future.

*Pre-market perspective, time-sensitive and limited, belongs to prediction, for reference and learning only, does not constitute investment advice, operating risks are self-assumed. Investment carries risks, trading requires caution.