HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0217

Time	Data and Events	Importance
18:00	Eurozone December seasonally adjusted trade balance	★★★
23:20	Federal Reserve Governor Bowman speaks	★★★

Variety	Opinions	Support Range	Resistance Range
US Dollar Index	Oscillating slightly weak	107-107.5	110-111
Gold	Oscillating slightly strong	2850-2870	2980-3000
Crude Oil	Short-term oscillation	69-70	79-80
Euro	Oscillating slightly strong	1.0180-1.0200	1.0500-1.0550

*Pre-market opinions are timely and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning, do not constitute investment advice, and the investment risk is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

At the end of January, the Federal Reserve meeting maintained interest rates unchanged, the labor market remained strong, economic activity steadily expanded, and inflation levels still appeared slightly high. Expectations for monetary policy easing have cooled, and attention will be paid to the new government policies. January non-farm data indicated that the number of new jobs decreased to 143,000, below expectations, while the unemployment rate slightly decreased to 4.0%, indicating a resilient labor market. The January unadjusted CPI year-on-year recorded 3.0%, slightly above prior and expected values. The December core PCE price index remained unchanged from the previous value; the January ISM manufacturing PMI value slightly increased.

Technical Analysis:

After oscillating at high levels, the US Dollar Index fell below support, with daily oscillation trending downwards, indicating signs of a weakening trend, and no signs of a stop in the decline have appeared, suggesting there may still be room for retreat. In the short term, one can attempt to take high short opportunities and reduce positions to take profits on declines. Overall, the larger-scale oscillation is slightly strong, and it has entered a short-term adjustment. The important resistance area is near 110-111, while the support range is near 107-107.5.

Opinion: Oscillating slightly weak, with signs of breaking the support area; in the short term, one can attempt a high short strategy.

*Pre-market opinions are timely and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning, do not constitute investment advice, and the investment risk is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The worsening geopolitical conflict in the Middle East and the turbulent situation in Eastern Europe create uncertainty. The European Central Bank’s interest rate decision at the end of January marked the fourth consecutive rate cut of 25 basis points, with inflation basically meeting expectations; however, economic performance remains weak and under pressure. The Federal Reserve’s rate decision at the end of January maintained rates unchanged, with good economic performance but still high inflation levels, leading to a slight relief of rate cut expectations. January non-farm data was mediocre, with a decrease in the number of new jobs lower than expected, while the unemployment rate slightly decreased, showing a slight improvement over expectations; January’s CPI year-on-year slightly warmed, slightly above expectations.

Technical Analysis:

Recent gold prices have performed strongly, with daily oscillation trending upwards. Last Friday night, there was a significant pullback, but it did not break the smaller level of support, suggesting a possible short-term oscillation primarily with low long strategies, reducing positions to take profits at highs. From a larger cycle perspective, the upward structure remains intact, with daily oscillation trending upwards and prices repeatedly reaching new highs. The upper resistance level may be around 2980-3000, while the lower level of small support is around 2850-2870.

Opinion: Oscillating slightly strong, with an emphasis on short-term longs and reducing positions to take profits.

*Pre-market opinions are timely and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning, do not constitute investment advice, and the investment risk is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

In the February EIA monthly report, the forecast for global oil demand growth in the next two years remains unchanged, with a slight adjustment to oil prices in 2025; the OPEC monthly report also maintains the forecast for global oil demand growth in the next two years; the IEA monthly report slightly raises the forecast for global oil demand growth in 2025. At the beginning of February, the OPEC+ meeting adhered to the previous oil production agreement, and the committee agreed to gradually increase oil production starting from April 1, in line with previous plans. EIA crude oil inventories have significantly increased, and this data has shown considerable recent fluctuations.

Technical Analysis:

U.S. crude oil experienced a pullback after reaching a high last week, closing with a long upper shadow on the weekly chart, indicating potential selling pressure above. The current price is at an important support area, suggesting short-term potential for volatility. Watch for stabilization signals to consider short-term buying opportunities. Overall, oil prices show a volatile upward trend with signs of stabilization on a larger scale, with a short-term correction expected. The upper pressure area is around 79-80, and the lower support area is around 69-70.

Viewpoint: Short-term volatility near the support area; pay attention to stabilization signals to attempt buying opportunities at lower levels.

*Pre-market opinions are timely and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning, do not constitute investment advice, and the investment risk is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

At the end of January, the ECB rate decision was a consecutive fourth rate cut of 25 basis points, with inflation generally meeting expectations, and aiming to return to medium-term goals this year. The economy still faces challenges, and it might continue to weaken in the short term, though income and policy effects support a recovery in demand. At the end of January, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, with overall economic performance being strong, and easing expectations somewhat alleviated. Non-farm payrolls in the U.S. in January were average, with job growth lower than expected, while the unemployment rate saw a slight decline, slightly better than expected; the January CPI year-on-year saw a slight increase, slightly higher than expectations.

Technical Analysis:

The euro has recently performed relatively strongly, with daily fluctuations indicating a possible stabilization. The current level is at a small resistance point, without a clear upward breakthrough yet, so caution is needed for a potential small-cycle pullback. In the short term, one can wait for a pullback to consider buying opportunities at lower levels. Overall, the price remains relatively low with a daily fluctuation structure, with no signs of large-scale stabilization yet. The upper small resistance area is around 1.0500-1.0550, and the lower support area is around 1.0180-1.0200.

Viewpoint: Showing upward volatility, pay attention to whether the pressure structure can break through, and attempt buying opportunities on pullbacks.

*Pre-market opinions are timely and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning, do not constitute investment advice, and the investment risk is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.