HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0218

Time	Data and Events	Importance
To be determined	Russian and American officials hold a meeting on Ukraine issues in Saudi Arabia	★★★
To be determined	The World Trade Organization (WTO) main decision-making body holds a meeting to discuss trade tensions	★★★
11:30	Australia’s Reserve Bank interest rate decision on February 18	★★★
12:30	Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe holds a monetary policy press conference	★★★
15:00	UK unemployment rate for the three months to December	★★★
	UK unemployment rate for January	★★★
	Number of unemployment claims in the UK for January	★★★
15:45	Final value of France’s CPI for January	★★★
17:30	Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey speaks on maintaining and enhancing open financial markets	★★★
18:00	Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for February	★★★
	Eurozone’s ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for February	★★★
21:30	Canada’s CPI for January	★★★
	US New York Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index for February	★★★
23:00	US NAHB Housing Market Index for February	★★★

Variety	Viewpoint	Support zone	Resistance zone
US Dollar Index	Weak oscillation	105.5-106	108.5-109
Gold	Strong oscillation	2850-2870	2980-3000
Crude Oil	Short-term oscillation	69-70	79-80
Euro	Strong oscillation	1.0180-1.0200	1.0500-1.0550

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, serve as forecasts only, and are for reference and learning; they do not constitute investment advice. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

At the end of January, the Federal Reserve meeting maintained interest rates; the labor market remains strong, economic activity shows solid expansion, and inflation levels are still slightly high. Expectations for monetary policy easing have cooled, with attention on new government policies. January non-farm data shows new employment numbers decreased to 143,000, below expectations, while the unemployment rate dropped slightly to 4.0%, indicating a resilient labor market. The January unadjusted CPI year-on-year recorded 3.0%, slightly higher than both the previous value and expectations. December’s core PCE price index remained unchanged from the previous value; January’s ISM Manufacturing PMI slightly increased.

Technical Analysis:

The US Dollar Index had slight fluctuations yesterday, with a possible small-cycle rebound, but there is selling pressure above. Attention should be paid to the upper pressure structure; if signs of resistance appear in the small cycle, attempts at short positions should be made to take profits in a timely manner. Overall, a large-scale oscillation leans strong, with short-term adjustments underway. The small-scale resistance area above is around 108.5-109, and the support area below is around 105.5-106.

Viewpoint: Weak oscillation, small-cycle rebound, short-term attempts at short positions on a rebound can be made.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, serve as forecasts only, and are for reference and learning; they do not constitute investment advice. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East continue to worsen, and the situation in Eastern Europe is unstable with uncertainties. The European Central Bank’s interest rate decision at the end of January saw a consecutive fourth cut of 25 basis points. Inflation is basically in line with expectations, but the economic performance remains weak and under pressure. At the end of January, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, with economic activity showing good performance; however, inflation levels remain high, alleviating some expectations for rate cuts. The U.S. non-farm payroll data for January was average, with new job growth decreasing and falling short of expectations, while the unemployment rate slightly declined and performed slightly better than expected; the year-on-year CPI for January saw a slight increase, slightly above expectations.

Technical Analysis:

Gold prices saw a slight increase yesterday, with a tendency towards short-term fluctuations. The recent support structure has not been broken, and the short-term performance remains relatively strong, likely continuing to test the resistance level upwards. A low-long strategy is recommended, with profit-taking on highs. From a broader perspective, the upward structure is intact, with daily fluctuations on the rise, and prices repeatedly hitting new highs. The upper resistance level may be around 2980-3000, while the lower support range is around 2850-2870.

Viewpoint: Fluctuations are biased towards strong, with a focus on short-term long positions, and profit-taking on highs.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, serve as forecasts only, and are for reference and learning; they do not constitute investment advice. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

In the February EIA monthly report, the global oil demand growth forecast for this year and next was maintained, with slight adjustments to the 2025 oil price; the OPEC monthly report also maintained the global oil demand growth forecast for this year and next; the IEA report slightly raised the forecast for global oil demand growth in 2025. At the beginning of February, the OPEC+ meeting adhered to the previously established oil production agreement, with the committee agreeing to gradually increase oil production starting April 1, consistent with previous plans. EIA crude oil inventories rose significantly, and this data has seen considerable fluctuations recently. Attention is on Friday’s early morning EIA crude oil inventory report.

Technical Analysis:

U.S. crude oil had a slight rebound during the day, with a tendency toward fluctuations in the short term. The current price is at an important support area and has not effectively broken down. Watch for signs of stabilization in the consolidation, at which point a short-long opportunity may be attempted. Overall, crude oil prices are fluctuation-biased towards strong, with signs of stabilization at a higher level, and a short-term adjustment is expected. The upper pressure area is around 79-80, while the lower support area is around 69-70.

Viewpoint: Short-term fluctuations near the support area; watch for stabilization signals to attempt a low-long opportunity.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, serve as forecasts only, and are for reference and learning; they do not constitute investment advice. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The European Central Bank’s interest rate decision at the end of January saw a consecutive fourth cut of 25 basis points, with inflation basically meeting expectations. It is expected to return to the medium-term target this year, but the economy still faces challenges and may continue to weaken in the short term, with income and policy effects supporting a demand rebound. At the end of January, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, with the overall economy performing strongly and easing expectations somewhat. U.S. non-farm payroll data for January was average, with new job growth decreasing, while the unemployment rate slightly fell and performed slightly better than expected; the U.S. January CPI year-on-year saw a slight increase. Attention is drawn to the Eurozone manufacturing PMI values on Friday.

Technical Analysis:

The euro saw slight fluctuations yesterday, with intense short-term trading. It is currently at a small-level pressure point and has not significantly broken upwards. Caution is advised against short cycles retreating, while the short term may wait for a drop to consider low-long opportunities. Overall, the price is at a relatively low level, with a daily fluctuation structure showing no signs of major stabilization yet. The upper small-level pressure area is around 1.0500-1.0550, while the lower support area is around 1.0180-1.0200.

Viewpoint: Fluctuations are biased towards strong; watch to see if the pressure structure can break through and wait for a drop to consider low-long opportunities.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, serve as forecasts only, and are for reference and learning; they do not constitute investment advice. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.