HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0306

Time	Data and Events	Importance
03:00	Federal Reserve releases Beige Book on economic conditions	★★★
14:45	Switzerland’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for February	★★★
18:00	Eurozone retail sales month-on-month for January	★★★
20:30	Challenger job-cut report for February in the U.S.	★★★
21:15	Eurozone deposit facility rate as of March 6	★★★★
	Eurozone main refinancing rate as of March 6	★★★
21:30	Initial jobless claims for the week ending March 1 in the U.S.	★★★★
	U.S. trade balance for January	★★★
21:45	European Central Bank President Lagarde holds a monetary policy press conference	★★★
23:00	U.S. wholesale sales month-on-month for January	★★★
	U.S. global supply chain pressure index for February	★★★
23:30	EIA natural gas inventories for the week ending February 28 in the U.S.	★★★

Variety	Views	Support Zone	Resistance Zone
Dollar Index	Weak oscillation	103.5-104	107-107.5
Gold	Short-term rebound	2830-2850	2920-2930
Oil	Weak oscillation	65-66	70-71
Euro	Strong oscillation	1.0450-1.0500	1.0850-1.0900

*Pre-market views are timely and limited, belong to pre-judgment, and are for reference and learning purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice, and operational risk is borne by the individual. Investing carries risks, and trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

At the end of January, the Federal Reserve meeting maintained interest rates unchanged. The labor market remains strong, economic activity continues to expand robustly, and inflation levels are still slightly high. Expectations for monetary policy easing have cooled, and attention will be paid to new government policies. The January non-farm payroll data indicated new jobs decreased to 143,000, lower than expected, while the unemployment rate slightly fell to 4.0%, demonstrating a stable labor market. The January unadjusted CPI annual rate recorded at 3.0%, slightly higher than previous values and expectations. The core PCE price index annual rate for January slightly declined, meeting expectations. Attention is focused on Friday’s non-farm data.

Technical Analysis:

The dollar index has shown weak performance recently, with significant daily declines and no signs of a bottom yet. If there are short positions, it’s advisable to reduce appropriately at low points. In the short term, the main strategy remains selling on rebounds. Overall, after a period of oscillation at high levels, there are signs of weakness. In the short term, it may continue to experience a downward adjustment. The upper resistance area is around 107-107.5, and the lower support area is around 103.5-104.

Viewpoint: Weak oscillation, watch for rebound selling opportunities, and reduce positions to take profits.

*Pre-market views are timely and limited, belong to pre-judgment, and are for reference and learning purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice, and operational risk is borne by the individual. Investing carries risks, and trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East continue to worsen, and the situation in Eastern Europe is unstable with uncertainties. At the end of January, the European Central Bank decided to lower interest rates by 25 basis points for the fourth consecutive time, with inflation basically meeting expectations, while economic performance remains weak and under pressure. At the end of January, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates unchanged, with good economic activity but still high inflation levels, and the expectations for rate cuts have eased somewhat. The U.S. non-farm payroll data for January showed average performance, with job additions below expectations and a slight decrease in the unemployment rate, which was marginally better than expected; the year-on-year CPI for January rose slightly, exceeding expectations.

Technical Analysis:

Gold prices experienced slight intraday fluctuations, with intense competition in the short term, currently approaching resistance areas and not having a clear upward breakthrough. If there are long positions, consider taking profits on highs; if it breaks above this structure, the market may strengthen, otherwise, it could exhibit a sideways trend. From a longer-term perspective, the upward structure remains intact, with daily fluctuations trending upward, focusing on whether prices can reach new highs. The upper resistance level may be around 2920-2930, while the lower small-level support level may be around 2830-2850.

Viewpoint: A short-term rebound is approaching a resistance structure; focus on whether it can break through.

*Pre-market views are timely and limited, belong to pre-judgment, and are for reference and learning purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice, and operational risk is borne by the individual. Investing carries risks, and trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

In February, the EIA maintained its global oil demand growth expectations for this year and next year and made slight adjustments to the 2025 oil price; the OPEC monthly report also maintained growth expectations for global oil demand in the next two years. The IEA report slightly raised the global oil demand growth forecast for 2025. At the beginning of February, in the OPEC+ meeting, members adhered to the previous oil production agreement and agreed to gradually increase oil production starting from April 1, in line with previous plans. The EIA crude oil inventory has increased significantly, which may put pressure on oil prices; attention should be paid to changes in the supply-demand structure.

Technical Analysis:

U.S. crude oil has displayed weaker performance recently, with daily consecutive declines and new low points in the short cycle, with prices at relatively low levels; a rebound may occur, and if there are short positions, consider taking profits on lows, with a short-term focus on high short positions during rebounds. Overall, crude oil prices are fluctuating in the low range and have not shown signs of stabilization. The upper pressure area is around 70-71, while the lower support area is around 65-66.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating and weak; consider taking profits on shorts in the low range.

*Pre-market views are timely and limited, belong to pre-judgment, and are for reference and learning purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice, and operational risk is borne by the individual. Investing carries risks, and trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

At the end of January, the European Central Bank decided to lower interest rates by 25 basis points for the fourth consecutive time, with inflation basically meeting expectations, aiming to return to the medium-term target this year. The economy still faces challenges and may remain weak in the short term, although income and policy effects support demand recovery. At the end of January, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates unchanged, with overall economic performance being robust, and easing expectations have somewhat eased. Non-farm payroll performance in January was average, with job additions declining, while the unemployment rate declined slightly. The January CPI year-on-year showed slight upward movement. There was not much change in the eurozone manufacturing PMI values. Attention is on the ECB meeting on Thursday.

Technical Analysis:

The euro has recently shown a strong performance, with daily candles closing with significant gains, and no signs of weakening observed yet. Currently, the euro is approaching small-level resistance; for existing long positions, consider taking profits on highs, and focus on the strategy of buying on dips in the short term. Overall, with prices relatively low and a fluctuating daily structure, there may be signs of stabilization at a higher level. The upper small-level pressure area is around 1.0850-1.0900, while the lower support area is around 1.0450-1.0500.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating and strong; if prices break through the resistance area, focus on the strategy of buying on dips.

*Pre-market views are timely and limited, belong to pre-judgment, and are for reference and learning purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice, and operational risk is borne by the individual. Investing carries risks, and trading requires caution.