HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0317

Time	Data and Events	Importance
20:30	U.S. February Retail Sales Month-on-Month	★★★★
	U.S. March New York Fed Manufacturing Index	★★★
22:00	U.S. March NAHB Housing Market Index	★★★
	U.S. January Business Inventories Month-on-Month	★★★

Varieties	Opinions	Support Range	Resistance Range
U.S. Dollar Index	Slightly Weak Fluctuation	101-102	106-107
Gold	Slightly Strong Fluctuation	2900-2930	3000-3020
Crude Oil	Short-Term Fluctuation	65-66	70-71
Euro	Slightly Strong Fluctuation	1.0750-1.0800	1.0950-1.1000

*Pre-Market opinions are time-sensitive and limited, belong to predictions, are for reference and learning only, do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operation lies with the individual. Investment carries risks, and trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

At the end of January, the Federal Reserve meeting maintained interest rates, the labor market remained strong, economic activity was expanding steadily, inflation levels were still slightly high, and expectations for monetary policy easing have cooled, with attention on new government policies. February non-farm data showed a new employment figure of 151,000, slightly below expectations, and the unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.1%, with a slight easing in the labor market. The February non-seasonally adjusted CPI annual rate recorded 2.8%, slightly lower than previous values and expectations. The January core PCE price index annual rate slightly returned to expectations. Focus on the Federal Reserve interest rate decision early Thursday morning.

Technical Analysis:

The U.S. dollar index experienced slight fluctuations last week, with the falling pace in the short cycle slowing down and showing signs of a slight rebound. In the short term, it may maintain a fluctuating structure, watching for signals of halting the decline and stabilization, at which point the market may continue to rebound. Overall, after the high-level fluctuations, there are signs of a weakness, and it might continue a weak correction in the short term. The upper resistance area is around 106-107, and the lower support area is around 101-102.

Opinion: Slightly weak fluctuations, signs of short-cycle consolidation, and reduction of short positions at lows for profit.

*Pre-Market opinions are time-sensitive and limited, belong to predictions, are for reference and learning only, do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operation lies with the individual. Investment carries risks, and trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The ongoing deterioration of conflicts in the Middle East and the easing situation in Eastern Europe add uncertainties. The European Central Bank’s interest rate decision in early March resulted in a consecutive fifth rate cut of 25 basis points; inflation progress is smooth, but economic growth risks are skewed to the downside. The U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision at the end of January maintained interest rates, with good economic activity performance but still high inflation levels, and expectations for rate cuts have eased slightly. The February non-farm data in the U.S. showed slight easing, with new employment figures slightly lower than expectations, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.1%. The February non-seasonally adjusted CPI annual rate recorded 2.8%, slightly lower than expectations. Focus on the Federal Reserve interest rate decision.

Technical Analysis:

Gold prices have recently performed strongly, with daily fluctuations on the rise and hitting historical highs. The price reached the 3000 figure mark but showed signs of resistance. In the short cycle, it is slightly fluctuating, requiring caution against minor pullbacks in the market. The main strategy remains to buy on dips, and taking profits at highs is advised. From a longer-term perspective, the upward structure remains intact, with high-level fluctuations and caution advised against possible market pullbacks. The upper resistance may be near 3000-3020, and the lower support may be around 2900-2930.

Opinion: Slightly strong fluctuations, reduce long positions at highs, with a primary strategy of buying on dips.

*Pre-Market opinions are time-sensitive and limited, belong to predictions, are for reference and learning only, do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operation lies with the individual. Investment carries risks, and trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The EIA monthly report for March largely maintains the crude oil price projections for 2025 and slightly raises the global crude oil demand growth forecast for 2026; the OPEC monthly report keeps the global crude oil demand growth forecasts for this year and next unchanged; the IEA monthly report slightly lowers the global oil demand growth forecast for 2025. At the beginning of February, the OPEC+ meeting upheld the previous oil production agreement, and the committee agreed to gradually increase oil production starting April 1st, in line with prior plans. EIA crude oil inventories slightly increased, which may put pressure on oil prices, and data changes should be monitored.

Technical Analysis:

U.S. crude oil has recently shown a volatile structure, with small cycle rebounds; the current price is at a relatively low level, and it is not advisable to short. If there are short positions, consider reducing them on dips to secure profits, while also watching for signs of stabilization, which may lead to continued rebounds in the market. Overall, crude oil prices are experiencing low-level fluctuations and corrections without signs of stabilization. The upper resistance area is around 70-71, while the lower support area is around 65-66.

Opinion: Short-term fluctuations are expected, and there may be a rebound near the support area.

*Pre-Market opinions are time-sensitive and limited, belong to predictions, are for reference and learning only, do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operation lies with the individual. Investment carries risks, and trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The European Central Bank’s interest rate decision in early March saw a consecutive fifth rate cut of 25 basis points, with progress on inflation retreating smoothly. The GDP growth forecasts for this year and next were slightly lowered, with economic growth risks leaning toward the downside, and tariffs potentially having a negative impact. At the end of January, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision maintained rates, reflecting strong overall economic performance with eased expectations for monetary policy. U.S. non-farm data for February showed slight easing, with the number of new jobs marginally below expectations and the unemployment rate rising slightly to 4.1%. The manufacturing PMI in the Eurozone showed little change. Attention is focused on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision.

Technical Analysis:

The euro continued its upward trend last week, showing a small cycle of upward volatility. It is approaching resistance areas, so one should be wary of potential pullback risks, considering taking profits on long positions at highs, while mainly relying on a low-buy strategy in the short term. Overall, the price remains at a relative low, with daily fluctuations suggesting potential large-scale stabilization signals. The upper resistance area is around 1.0950-1.1000, while the lower minor support area is around 1.0750-1.0800.

Opinion: The outlook is for strong fluctuations, with a focus on short-term buying, taking profits on highs.

*Pre-Market opinions are time-sensitive and limited, belong to predictions, are for reference and learning only, do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operation lies with the individual. Investment carries risks, and trading requires caution.