HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0326

Time	Data and Events	Importance
04:30	U.S. API crude oil inventory for the week ending March 21	★★★
08:00	Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda speaks at Congress	★★★
08:30	Australia’s February weighted CPI year-on-year	★★★
15:00	UK’s February CPI month-on-month	★★★
	UK’s February Retail Price Index month-on-month	★★★
17:00	Switzerland’s March ZEW Investor Confidence Index	★★★
20:30	U.S. February durable goods orders month-on-month	★★★
	UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Reeves presents the spring budget statement	★★★
22:30	U.S. EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending March 21	★★★★
	U.S. EIA crude oil inventory at Cushing, Oklahoma for the week ending March 21	★★★
	U.S. EIA Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventory for the week ending March 21	★★★
Next day 01:10	2025 FOMC voting member Musalem speaks	★★★
Next day 01:30	Bank of Canada releases monetary policy meeting minutes	★★★
Next day 01:40	European Central Bank Executive Board member Chipoloni participates in the 11th Crypto Assets Conference panel discussion	★★★

Varieties	Viewpoints	Support Range	Resistance Range
U.S. Dollar Index	Volatile rebound	103-103.5	106-107
Gold	Short-term volatility	2980-3000	3030-3050
Crude Oil	Volatile rebound	65-66	70-71
Euro	Short-term adjustment	1.0750-1.0800	1.0950-1.1000

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are speculative and for reference and learning purposes only, do not constitute investment advice, and trading risks are borne by the operator. Investment involves risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

In March, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates unchanged, the labor market remains solid, inflation expectations for this and next year were raised, while GDP growth expectations for the next three years were lowered, and tapering of the balance sheet will slow starting in April. February non-farm data showed an increase of 151,000 jobs, slightly below expectations, and the unemployment rate rose slightly, indicating a slight easing in the labor market. The year-on-year CPI for February recorded 2.8%, slightly lower than the previous value and expectations. The core PCE price index year-on-year for January slightly retreated, meeting expectations.

Technical Analysis:

The U.S. Dollar Index showed a slight pullback in night trading; the short-term cycle continues a rebound trend, showing strong performance recently with no signs of weakness, and it may still have upward potential, likely maintaining a volatile rebound approach in the short term. Overall, after a high price, a pullback phenomenon with slowing decline appeared, indicating a potential rebound trend. Upper resistance area near 106-107, lower support area near 103-103.5.

Viewpoint: Volatile rebound, short-term stability signs may extend the rebound trend.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are speculative and for reference and learning purposes only, do not constitute investment advice, and trading risks are borne by the operator. Investment involves risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East continue to worsen, while the situation in Eastern Europe is easing, presenting uncertainties. The European Central Bank’s interest rate decision in early March saw a fifth consecutive rate cut of 25 basis points, with inflation progressing smoothly and economic growth risks skewed to the downside. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision in March remained unchanged, with a stable labor market, a downward revision of GDP growth expectations, and plans to slow the pace of balance sheet reduction. U.S. non-farm payroll data for February showed slight easing, with job growth slightly below expectations and the unemployment rate rising to 4.1%; the seasonally unadjusted CPI annual rate for February recorded 2.8%, slightly below expectations.

Technical Analysis:

Gold prices saw a slight rise and then a pullback yesterday, with potential selling pressure above and indications of a correction in the short term. Attention is on the support area; if it breaks below, further downward space may open up. From a longer-term perspective, the ascending structure remains intact, with daily fluctuations trending upwards and short-term corrections occurring. The upper pressure level is around 3030-3050, while the lower support level is around 2980-3000.

Viewpoint: Short-term fluctuations, focus on support and resistance levels, and watch for breakout direction.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are speculative and for reference and learning purposes only, do not constitute investment advice, and trading risks are borne by the operator. Investment involves risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The March EIA monthly report basically maintains the crude oil price outlook for 2025 and slightly raises the global crude oil demand growth forecast for 2026; the OPEC monthly report keeps the global oil demand growth expectations for this year and next unchanged; the IEA monthly report slightly lowers the global oil demand growth expectations for 2025. In early February, the OPEC+ meeting agreed to adhere to previous oil production agreements, with the committee consenting to gradually increase oil output starting April 1, consistent with earlier plans. EIA crude oil inventories saw a slight increase, which may pressure oil prices, so attention should be on changes in supply and demand structures. Watch for the EIA crude oil inventory report on Wednesday.

Technical Analysis:

U.S. crude oil futures saw a slight rise and then a pullback at night, with a short-term bias towards fluctuations, and no signs of weakening yet. However, prices are nearing the upper pressure area, warranting caution for a potential market correction; if trading long, consider reducing holdings for profit at higher prices. Overall, crude oil prices are fluctuating and rebounding at low levels, without signs of a significant stabilization. The upper pressure area is around 70-71, while the lower support area is around 65-66.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating rebound, approaching pressure level, reduce long positions for profit at higher prices.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are speculative and for reference and learning purposes only, do not constitute investment advice, and trading risks are borne by the operator. Investment involves risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The European Central Bank’s interest rate decision in early March saw a fifth consecutive rate cut of 25 basis points, with inflation declining steadily and a slight downward revision in GDP growth expectations for this year and next, while economic growth risks are skewed to the downside, and tariffs may have negative impacts. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision in March remained unchanged, with upward revisions to inflation expectations and downward revisions to GDP growth expectations, planning to slow the pace of balance sheet reduction. U.S. non-farm payroll data for February showed slight easing, with job growth slightly below expectations and the unemployment rate rising to 4.1%. In the Eurozone and in economies like France and Germany, manufacturing PMI values were slightly better than previous and expected values.

Technical Analysis:

The euro saw slight fluctuations yesterday, with signs of weakening in the short term and currently at a support area; if it breaks below, caution is warranted for a further market correction, and at that time, short positions may be considered. Overall, prices have risen previously, reaching an important upper pressure area, and may encounter resistance in the short term. The upper pressure area is around 1.0950-1.1000, while the lower support area is around 1.0750-1.0800.

Viewpoint: Short-term adjustment, signs of weakening in the short term, caution for continued market correction.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are speculative and for reference and learning purposes only, do not constitute investment advice, and trading risks are borne by the operator. Investment involves risks; trading requires caution.