HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0327

Time	Data and Events	Importance
To be determined	Ukrainian President Zelensky holds talks with major European leaders	★★★
04:00	U.S. President Trump holds a press conference to announce auto tariffs	★★★★
20:30	U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending March 22	★★★★
	U.S. Q4 actual GDP annualized quarterly rate revision	★★★
	U.S. Q4 actual personal consumption expenditures quarterly rate preliminary value	★★★
	U.S. Q4 core PCE price index annualized quarterly rate final value	★★★
22:00	U.S. February existing home sales index month-on-month	★★★
22:30	U.S. EIA natural gas inventory for the week ending March 21	★★★

Variety	Perspective	Support Range	Resistance Range
U.S. Dollar Index	Fluctuating rebound	103-103.5	106-107
Gold	Short-term fluctuations	2980-3000	3030-3050
Crude Oil	Fluctuating rebound	65-66	70-71
Euro	Short-term pullback	1.0750-1.0800	1.0950-1.1000

*Pre-market views are timely and limited, represent predictions, are for reference and study only, do not constitute investment advice, and operate at your own risk. Investment has risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

In March, the Federal Reserve meeting decided to keep interest rates unchanged, the labor market remains stable, inflation expectations for this and next year are raised, and GDP growth expectations for the next three years are lowered. Starting in April, the pace of balance sheet reduction will slow down, and there is uncertainty regarding tariff policies. In February, the non-farm payroll data showed an increase of 151,000 jobs, slightly below expectations, with the unemployment rate rising slightly, indicating a slight softening in the labor market. The year-on-year CPI for February was recorded at 2.8%, slightly below the previous value and expectations. The year-on-year core PCE price index for January fell slightly, meeting expectations.

Technical Analysis:

The U.S. Dollar Index continued its rebound yesterday, showing a short-term upward trend, with recent performance relatively strong and no signs of weakness. There may still be room for further increases, and it is expected to maintain a fluctuating rebound approach in the short term. Overall, prices are showing signs of a high-level pullback, with a slowing decline, suggesting a possible rebound. The resistance area is around 106-107, while the support area is around 103-103.5.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating rebound with signs of short-term stabilization, possibly continuing the rebound trend.

*Pre-market views are timely and limited, represent predictions, are for reference and study only, do not constitute investment advice, and operate at your own risk. Investment has risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East continue to worsen, eastern European situations are easing, which presents uncertainties. The European Central Bank’s March interest rate decision marks the fifth consecutive 25 basis point cut, with inflation progressing smoothly, but economic growth risks leaning downward. The Federal Reserve’s March interest rate decision remains unchanged, the labor market is stable, and GDP growth expectations are lowered, with a slowdown in the pace of balance sheet reduction. The February non-farm payroll data in the U.S. shows slight easing, with job additions marginally below expectations and the unemployment rate rising slightly to 4.1%. The year-on-year unadjusted CPI for February was recorded at 2.8%, slightly below expectations.

Technical Analysis:

Gold prices experienced slight fluctuations yesterday, with a small body on the daily line. The battle between bulls and bears was intense, and the lower support level was not breached. There may be signs of stabilization in the short cycle, with a higher probability of a short-term upward move. Attention should be paid to whether the current resistance area can be clearly broken through. From a larger cycle perspective, the upward structure is intact, with daily fluctuations trending upwards and a pullback in the short cycle. The upper small-level resistance is around 3030-3050, while the lower small-level support is around 2980-3000.

Viewpoint: Short-term fluctuations, support area has not been broken, signs of stabilization in the short cycle.

*Pre-market views are timely and limited, represent predictions, are for reference and study only, do not constitute investment advice, and operate at your own risk. Investment has risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The March EIA monthly report basically maintains the crude oil price for 2025 and slightly raises the global crude oil demand growth forecast for 2026; the OPEC monthly report keeps the global crude oil demand growth expectations for this year and next year unchanged; the IEA monthly report slightly lowers the global oil demand growth forecast for 2025. At the beginning of February, the OPEC+ meeting confirmed adherence to previous oil production agreements, with the committee agreeing to gradually increase oil production starting from April 1, in line with previous plans. EIA crude oil inventories have significantly decreased, which may support oil prices in the short term, with attention to changes in supply and demand structure.

Technical Analysis:

US crude oil slightly rose yesterday, with a stronger performance in the short cycle. The current price is close to the resistance area, and if long positions are reduced to take profits at high points, there has not yet been a sign of weakness. Attention should be paid to whether the current structure can clearly break upwards; otherwise, the market may experience fluctuations. Overall, crude oil prices are rebounding from a low level, with no signs of stabilization at a large level. The upper resistance area is around 70-71, while the lower support area is around 65-66.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating rebound, nearing the resistance level; consider reducing long positions to take profits.

*Pre-market views are timely and limited, represent predictions, are for reference and study only, do not constitute investment advice, and operate at your own risk. Investment has risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The European Central Bank’s rate decision in early March resulted in a cut in interest rates by 25 basis points for the fifth consecutive time. Progress on inflation has been smooth, with a slight downward adjustment to GDP growth forecasts for this year and next, and economic growth risks leaning towards the downside, with tariffs potentially having negative effects. In March, the Federal Reserve’s rate decision remained unchanged, with an upward adjustment in inflation expectations and a downward adjustment in GDP growth projections, alongside plans to slow the pace of quantitative tightening. US non-farm payroll data for February showed a slight easing, with new job additions slightly below expectations and an unemployment rate rising to 4.1%. In the eurozone and major economies like France and Germany, manufacturing PMI values were slightly better than previous and expected values.

Technical Analysis:

The euro price slightly declined during the overnight session, with a short cycle showing downward fluctuations and a weaker short-term performance. Resistance has formed at the top, and it may be possible to attempt sell opportunities at high points for timely profits. Overall, previous price increases have reached an important resistance area at the top, which may face obstacles in the short term. The upper resistance area is around 1.0950-1.1000, while the lower small-level support area is around 1.0750-1.0800.

Viewpoint: Short-term pullback, signs of weakening in the short cycle; consider trying to sell at high points.

*Pre-market views are timely and limited, represent predictions, are for reference and study only, do not constitute investment advice, and operate at your own risk. Investment has risks; trading requires caution.