HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0331

Time	Data and Events	Importance
16:30	UK February Bank of England Mortgage Approvals	★★★
20:00	Germany March CPI YoY Final	★★★
21:45	US March Chicago PMI	★★★
22:30	US March Dallas Fed Business Activity Index	★★★

Variety	Viewpoints	Support Range	Resistance Range
US Dollar Index	Fluctuating weak	103-103.5	106-107
Gold	Fluctuating strong	3030-3050	3130-3150
Crude Oil	Short-term fluctuations	65-66	70-71
Euro	Fluctuating strong	1.0730-1.0750	1.0950-1.1000

*Pre-market views are timely and limited, belong to forecasts, are for reference and learning only, do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operation is borne by the investor. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

In March, the Federal Reserve meeting decided to maintain interest rates, the labor market remained stable, the inflation forecast for this year and next was revised upward, and the near-term GDP growth forecast was revised downward, with plans to slow the pace of balance sheet reduction starting in April. February non-farm data showed an increase of 151,000 jobs, slightly below expectations, with a slight rise in the unemployment rate indicating a slight cooling in the labor market. The February unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate recorded 2.8%, slightly lower than previous values and expectations; the core PCE price index increased slightly. Watch for the non-farm data this Friday.

Technical Analysis:

The US Dollar Index surged and then fell back last week, closing with a long upper shadow on the weekly chart, indicating selling pressure above. In the short term, it may test support; attention should be paid to signs of stabilizing if it rebounds. If support structures are broken, the trend turns weak. Overall, prices are retreating from a high level, with no significant stabilization signs yet, likely leading to fluctuations in the short term. The resistance area is around 106-107, while the support area is around 103-103.5.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating weak; a possible second test of the support area, with a focus on stabilization signals.

*Pre-market views are timely and limited, belong to forecasts, are for reference and learning only, do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operation is borne by the investor. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The ongoing deterioration of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and uncertainty in Eastern Europe in the short term persist. The European Central Bank’s rate decision in early March saw a consecutive fifth rate cut of 25 basis points, with inflation progressing smoothly and downside risks to economic growth. In the March Federal Reserve rate decision, interest rates were maintained, the labor market remained stable, GDP growth expectations were lowered, and the pace of balance sheet reduction will be slowed. The US February unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate recorded 2.8%, slightly below expectations; the core PCE price index increased slightly; and US tariff policies may stimulate the safe-haven attributes of gold. Watch for this week’s non-farm data.

Technical Analysis:

Gold prices opened high in the morning, retraced, then surged significantly, reaching new highs, with strong market performance and no signs of weakening. The strategy mainly focuses on buying the dips and reducing holdings on rises. In a larger time frame, the upward structure remains intact, with daily movements fluctuating upwards and minor corrections in shorter cycles. The resistance level may be around 3130-3150, with support around 3030-3050.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating strong; prices reaching new highs, focusing on buying the dips and reducing holdings on rises.

*Pre-market views are timely and limited, belong to forecasts, are for reference and learning only, do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operation is borne by the investor. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

In the March EIA monthly report, the oil price forecast for 2025 was basically maintained, with a slight upward adjustment to the global oil demand growth rate for 2026; the OPEC monthly report maintained the global oil demand growth expectations for this year and next unchanged; the IEA monthly report slightly lowered the global oil demand growth expectations for 2025. At the beginning of February, the OPEC+ meeting confirmed adherence to the previous oil production agreement, and the committee agreed to gradually increase oil production starting from April 1, in line with prior plans. EIA crude oil inventories decreased significantly, which may support oil prices in the short term, focusing on changes in the supply-demand structure.

Technical Analysis:

Recent rebound in U.S. crude oil prices, with a small cycle of fluctuating upward; there are signs of resistance when approaching the upper pressure level, and the small cycle may weaken, so a short selling strategy could be attempted for timely profit, as prices are at a relatively low level and may fluctuate back and forth in the short term. Overall, oil prices are fluctuating and rebounding at a low level without signs of a significant stabilization. The upper pressure area is around 70-71, and the lower support area is around 65-66.

Viewpoint: Short-term fluctuations. For long positions, consider reducing holdings for profit at highs, and a short-selling strategy could be attempted.

*Pre-market views are timely and limited, belong to forecasts, are for reference and learning only, do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operation is borne by the investor. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The European Central Bank’s interest rate decision in early March dropped the rate by 25 basis points for the fifth consecutive time, with inflation showing a positive downward trend, and a slight downward revision of GDP growth expectations for this year and next, with economic growth risks leaning towards the downside, and potential negative impacts from tariffs. In March, the Federal Reserve decided to maintain interest rates, raised inflation expectations, lowered GDP growth expectations, and will slow the pace of balance sheet reduction. U.S. non-farm payroll data for February showed a slight decline in new jobs compared to expectations, with the unemployment rate rising slightly to 4.1%. Economic indicators for the Eurozone and major economies like France and Germany showed that manufacturing PMI values were slightly better than previous values and expectations. Focus on the upcoming non-farm data this week.

Technical Analysis:

The euro price showed a slight daily increase, with a fluctuating upward structure and signs of stabilization in the small cycle; in the short term, it may rise to test resistance levels, so short-term long opportunities could be attempted, while also needing to monitor whether prices can break through the previous highs. Overall, after a previous price increase, it reached an important upper resistance area, and may encounter resistance in the short term. The upper pressure area is around 1.0950-1.1000, and the lower small-level support area is around 1.0700-1.0750.

Viewpoint: Fluctuations are slightly strong, with signs of stabilization in the small cycle; a short-term long opportunity could be attempted.

*Pre-market views are timely and limited, belong to forecasts, are for reference and learning only, do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operation is borne by the investor. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.