HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0515

Time	Data and Events	Importance
To be determined	Ukrainian President Zelensky is waiting in Turkey for direct negotiations with Russian President Putin.	★★★
To be determined	The Federal Reserve is holding the second Thomas Laubach Research Conference, focusing on research related to monetary policy and the economy.	★★★
09:30	Australia’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for April.	★★★
14:00	Preliminary year-on-year GDP for the UK in the first quarter.	★★★
	Month-on-month manufacturing output for the UK in March.	★★★
14:45	Final month-on-month CPI for France in April.	★★★
16:00	IEA releases the monthly oil market report.	★★★
17:00	Revised year-on-year GDP for the Eurozone in the first quarter.	★★★
	Month-on-month industrial output for the Eurozone in March.	★★★
20:30	Month-on-month wholesale sales for Canada in March.	★★★
	Initial jobless claims for the week ending May 10 in the US.	★★★★
	Month-on-month retail sales for the US in April.	★★★★
	Year-on-year PPI for the US in April.	★★★
21:15	Month-on-month industrial output for the US in April.	★★★
22:00	NAHB housing market index for the US in May.	★★★
	Month-on-month business inventories for the US in March.	★★★

Variety	Viewpoint	Support range	Resistance range
US Dollar Index	Fluctuating with a slight upward bias	99-100	103-104
Gold	Fluctuating with a slight downward bias	3000-3020	3220-3250
Crude Oil	Fluctuating with a slight downward bias	57-58	64-65
Euro	Fluctuating with a slight downward bias	1.0950-1.1000	1.1250-1.1300

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, and are for reference and learning purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operation is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

At the beginning of May, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, the labor market remained resilient, and the unemployment rate was stable; the balance sheet reduction plan continues, short-term inflation has risen slightly, long-term inflation is in line with expectations, and the economy is in a stable state with increasing downside risks; the impact of tariffs may exceed expectations, creating uncertainty. In April, non-farm payroll data showed an increase of 177,000 jobs, slightly exceeding expectations, with the unemployment rate remaining unchanged and a resilient labor market. The year-on-year CPI for April, not seasonally adjusted, has slightly decreased, raising expectations for future interest rate cuts.

Technical Analysis:

The US Dollar Index rebounded from a low yesterday, with a daily candle forming a long lower shadow, indicating support below. The short-term outlook remains slightly bullish, with signs of stabilization possibly emerging, primarily focusing on buying on dips. Overall, prices are at relatively low levels, with daily fluctuations and consolidations, and a rebound trend may occur. The resistance area is around 103-104, while the support area is around 99-100.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating with a slight upward bias, signs of stabilization on pullbacks, primarily focusing on buying on dips.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, and are for reference and learning purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operation is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East continue to escalate, and there is uncertainty in the situation in Eastern Europe. The European Central Bank’s interest rate decision in April saw a 25 basis point cut for the sixth consecutive time, with inflation easing smoothly and economic resilience strengthening. In May, the Federal Reserve maintained its interest rate decision, with a resilient labor market, a slight increase in short-term inflation, and a continued balance sheet reduction plan, leading to increased economic downside risks. In April, the U.S. non-farm payroll data showed that the number of new jobs exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged; the year-on-year CPI for April showed a moderate decline. U.S. tariff policies are becoming more relaxed, which may temper the safe-haven attributes of gold.

Technical Analysis:

Gold prices have recently continued to show weakness, clearly breaking below the support area yesterday, opening up downward space. The short-term outlook remains weak with no signs of a rebound, and attention should be paid to opportunities for short positions on rebounds. From a larger cycle perspective, the upward structure is maintained, but the previous high resistance level has not been clearly broken, leading to high-level fluctuations on the daily chart. The upper resistance level is around 3220-3250, while the lower support level is around 3000-3020.

Viewpoint: Weak fluctuations, pay attention to opportunities for short positions on rebounds, and reduce holdings to take profits on dips.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, and are for reference and learning purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operation is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The May EIA monthly report basically maintains the global crude oil demand forecast for this and next year, with a slight downward adjustment to U.S. crude oil production for this and next year; the OPEC monthly report maintains the global oil demand growth forecast for this year and next year while lowering the economic growth forecast for this year. At the beginning of May, the OPEC+ member countries’ meeting will increase production in June, accelerating the pace of production increases for the second consecutive month. There is uncertainty in U.S. tariff policies, which may affect the demand side. EIA crude oil inventories have increased significantly, leading to a loose supply-demand structure.

Technical Analysis:

U.S. crude oil saw a slight pullback yesterday, approaching the upper resistance level, with signs of weakness emerging in the short cycle, which may lead to selling pressure. In the short term, it may continue to test the support area, and short positions can be attempted to take profits on dips. Overall, crude oil has shown weak performance previously, with a low-level rebound trend emerging, but no significant stabilization signs have appeared. The upper resistance area is around 64-65, while the lower support area is around 57-58.

Viewpoint: Weak fluctuations, prices may test the lower support structure, and short positions can be attempted.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, and are for reference and learning purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operation is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The European Central Bank’s interest rate decision in April saw a 25 basis point cut for the sixth consecutive time, with inflation easing smoothly and economic resilience strengthening. The monetary policy stance is dynamically adjusted based on data and assessed in stages, with attention to trade situations. In May, the Federal Reserve maintained its interest rate decision, with a resilient labor market, a slight increase in short-term inflation, and a continued balance sheet reduction plan, leading to increased economic downside risks. The U.S. non-farm employment figures for April slightly exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged; the year-on-year CPI for April showed a moderate decline. The manufacturing PMI values for major Eurozone countries showed little change in April.

Technical Analysis:

The euro price rose and then fell yesterday, reaching the upper resistance area, with signs of weakness emerging in the short cycle, which may lead to a return to a weak trend. Short-term attention should be paid to opportunities for short positions on rebounds, and profits should be taken on dips. Overall, from a larger cycle perspective, there is a high-level fluctuation and pullback, with no signs of stabilization appearing yet. The upper resistance area is around 1.1250-1.1300, while the lower support area is around 1.0950-1.1000.

Viewpoint: Weak fluctuations, signs of resistance at the rebound pressure level, pay attention to short position opportunities.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, and are for reference and learning purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operation is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.