HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0519

Time	Data and Events	Importance
17:00	Eurozone April CPI year-on-year final value	★★★
	Eurozone April CPI month-on-month final value	★★★
20:45	Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson speaks	★★★
	FOMC permanent voting member Williams speaks	★★★
22:00	U.S. April Conference Board Leading Economic Index month-on-month	★★★
	U.S. President Trump speaks with Russian President Putin, Ukrainian President Zelensky, and NATO member countries in succession	★★★

Variety	Viewpoint	Support Range	Resistance Range
U.S. Dollar Index	Fluctuating with a slight upward bias	99-100	103-104
Gold	Fluctuating with a slight downward bias	3130-3150	3230-3250
Crude Oil	Short-term fluctuations	57-58	64-65
Euro	Fluctuating with a slight downward bias	1.0950-1.1000	1.1250-1.1300

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictive in nature, and are for reference and learning only. They do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

At the beginning of May, the Federal Reserve meeting maintained interest rates, the labor market remained resilient, and the unemployment rate was stable; the balance sheet reduction plan continues, short-term inflation has risen slightly, long-term inflation is in line with expectations, and the economy is in a stable state with increasing downside risks. The April non-farm data showed an increase of 177,000 jobs, slightly exceeding expectations, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged, indicating a robust labor market. The April unadjusted CPI year-on-year slightly decreased, raising expectations for future interest rate cuts; April retail data performed poorly but was slightly better than expected.

Technical Analysis:

The U.S. Dollar Index has recently fluctuated slightly, with a short-term bias towards a fluctuating structure, and the bullish sentiment remains slightly dominant, maintaining a strong trend. Attention should be paid to signs of stabilization after a pullback, with a primary focus on buying on dips. Overall, prices are at relatively low levels, with daily fluctuations and consolidations, and a rebound trend may occur. The upper resistance area is around 103-104, while the lower support area is around 99-100.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating with a slight upward bias, pay attention to signs of stabilization after a pullback, with a primary focus on buying on dips.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictive in nature, and are for reference and learning only. They do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East continue to escalate, and there is uncertainty in the Eastern European situation. The European Central Bank’s April interest rate decision marked the sixth consecutive 25 basis point cut, with inflation declining smoothly and economic resilience somewhat enhanced. The May Federal Reserve interest rate decision maintained the status quo, with a resilient labor market and short-term inflation rising slightly, continuing the balance sheet reduction plan, while economic downside risks are increasing. The U.S. April non-farm data showed job growth exceeding expectations, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged; the April unadjusted CPI year-on-year showed a moderate decline. The U.S. tariff policy is tending to ease, which may temper gold’s safe-haven attributes.

Technical Analysis:

Gold prices failed to set a new low in Friday’s night session, rebounding slightly in the morning, currently near resistance levels, which may face selling pressure. Short positions can be attempted, and profits should be taken promptly; if this structure is broken, a further rebound may occur. From a larger perspective, after high-level fluctuations, the daily chart shows a pullback, entering a short-term correction. The upper resistance level is around 3230-3250, while the lower support level is around 3130-3150.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating with a slight downward bias, short-term rebound, pay attention to the effectiveness of resistance levels.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictive in nature, and are for reference and learning only. They do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The May EIA monthly report basically maintains the global crude oil demand expectations for this year and next, while slightly lowering the crude oil production forecast for the U.S. for this year and next. The OPEC monthly report maintains the global oil demand growth expectations for this year and next, but lowers the economic growth forecast for this year. At the beginning of May, the OPEC+ member countries’ meeting will increase production in June, accelerating the pace of production increases for the second consecutive month. There is uncertainty in U.S. tariff policies, which may affect demand. EIA crude oil inventories have increased significantly, leading to a relatively loose supply-demand structure.

Technical Analysis:

U.S. crude oil daily prices are slightly fluctuating, with intense competition between bulls and bears, facing pressure above and support below. In the short term, it may maintain a fluctuating trend, and short-selling opportunities can be attempted for timely profits. Attention should be paid to important support structures below, and whether there are signs of stabilization. Overall, crude oil has shown weak performance previously, with repeated fluctuations at low levels, and no significant stabilization signs have appeared. The pressure area above is around 64-65, while the support area below is around 57-58.

Viewpoint: Short-term fluctuations may see prices test the support structure below, and short-selling opportunities can be attempted.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictive in nature, and are for reference and learning only. They do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The European Central Bank’s April interest rate decision saw a continuous sixth rate cut of 25 basis points, with inflation declining smoothly and economic resilience somewhat strengthening. The bank relies on data, evaluates successively, and dynamically adjusts its monetary policy stance, paying attention to trade situations. In May, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision remained unchanged, with a resilient labor market, a slight rise in short-term inflation, and continued balance sheet reduction plans, while economic downside risks have increased. The U.S. non-farm payrolls in April slightly exceeded expectations, with the unemployment rate remaining unchanged; the April CPI year-on-year showed a moderate decline. The manufacturing PMI values in major Eurozone countries remained largely unchanged in April.

Technical Analysis:

The euro has recently experienced slight fluctuations and declines, with weak performance in the short cycle. It is currently rebounding to a minor resistance level, and attention should be paid to signs of weakening in the K-line, where short-selling opportunities can be attempted, and profits can be taken on dips. Overall, the long-term trend shows high-level fluctuations and declines, and it may enter a correction in the short term, with no signs of stabilization yet. The pressure area above is around 1.1250-1.1300, while the support area below is around 1.0950-1.1000.

Viewpoint: The trend is weak with fluctuations, and there may be selling pressure at the resistance level, so attention should be paid to short-selling opportunities.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictive in nature, and are for reference and learning only. They do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.