HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0520

Time	Data and Events	Importance
To be determined	G7 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting will be held until May 22.	★★★
12:30	Australia’s Reserve Bank interest rate decision until May 20.	★★★
13:30	Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Lowe will hold a monetary policy press conference.	★★★
14:00	Germany’s April PPI month-on-month rate.	★★★
16:00	Eurozone March seasonally adjusted current account.	★★★
20:30	Canada’s April CPI month-on-month rate.	★★★
22:00	Eurozone May consumer confidence index preliminary value.	★★★
Next day 01:00	2025 FOMC voting member Mester will speak on economic outlook and monetary policy.	★★★
Next day 02:30	NYMEX New York crude oil June futures roll over, completing the last trading session.	★★★

Variety	Viewpoint	Support range	Resistance range
US Dollar Index	Short-term fluctuations	99-100	103-104
Gold	Weak fluctuations	3130-3150	3230-3250
Crude oil	Short-term fluctuations	57-58	64-65
Euro	Weak fluctuations	1.0950-1.1000	1.1250-1.1300

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

At the beginning of May, the Federal Reserve meeting maintained interest rates, the labor market remained resilient, and the unemployment rate was stable; the balance sheet reduction plan continues, short-term inflation has risen slightly, long-term inflation is in line with expectations, and the economy is in a stable state with increasing downside risks; the impact of tariffs may exceed expectations, creating uncertainty. In April, non-farm payroll data showed an increase of 177,000 jobs, slightly exceeding expectations, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged, indicating a robust labor market. The year-on-year CPI in April showed a slight decline, raising expectations for future interest rate cuts; retail data in April performed poorly but was slightly better than expected.

Technical Analysis:

The US Dollar Index fell slightly yesterday, with short-term performance being weak, and there is a risk of a weakening trend. The current price is close to the support structure, and there are no signs of stabilization yet. If it breaks down significantly, the trend may weaken. Overall, the price is at a relatively low level, with daily fluctuations and consolidations, and a rebound trend may occur. The upper resistance area is around 103-104, while the lower support area is around 99-100.

Viewpoint: Short-term fluctuations, pay attention to whether there are signs of stabilization in the support area.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East continue to escalate, and there is uncertainty in the Eastern European situation. The European Central Bank’s April interest rate decision saw a continuous sixth rate cut of 25 basis points, with inflation declining smoothly and economic resilience strengthening. The Federal Reserve’s May interest rate decision remained unchanged, with a resilient labor market and a slight rise in short-term inflation, continuing the balance sheet reduction plan, and increasing economic downside risks. The US April non-farm data showed job growth exceeding expectations, with the unemployment rate remaining unchanged; the year-on-year CPI in April showed a moderate decline. The US tariff policy is tending to ease, which may temper the safe-haven attributes of gold.

Technical Analysis:

The gold price continued its volatile trend yesterday, with multiple tests of resistance levels in the short term showing signs of encountering obstacles. Short positions can be attempted on high prices, and profits can be taken on dips. If there is a clear upward breakout of the resistance structure, the market may continue to rebound. From a larger perspective, after a high-level consolidation, the daily chart shows a pullback, indicating a short-term correction. The upper resistance level is around 3230-3250, while the lower support level is around 3130-3150.

Viewpoint: Weak volatility, pay attention to the effectiveness of resistance levels, and attempt short positions.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The May EIA monthly report basically maintains the global oil demand forecast for this and next year, slightly lowering the U.S. oil production forecast for this and next year; the OPEC monthly report maintains the global oil demand growth forecast for this year and next, while lowering the economic growth forecast for this year; the IEA monthly report slightly raises the oil demand growth forecast for 2025. The OPEC+ member countries’ meeting in early May will increase production in June, accelerating the pace of production increases for the second consecutive month. There is uncertainty in U.S. tariff policies, which may affect demand. Pay attention to the EIA crude oil inventory report this Wednesday.

Technical Analysis:

U.S. crude oil has recently shown slight fluctuations, with intense short-term trading, and bulls may have a slight advantage in the short term. However, caution is advised regarding the upper resistance structure; unless there is a clear breakout, the market may maintain a volatile pattern, allowing for both high selling and low buying. Overall, crude oil has shown weak performance previously, with repeated fluctuations at low levels, and has not yet shown signs of significant stabilization. The upper resistance area is around 64-65, while the lower support area is around 57-58.

Viewpoint: Short-term volatility, pay attention to support and resistance structures, allowing for both high selling and low buying.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The European Central Bank’s April interest rate decision saw a continuous sixth rate cut of 25 basis points, with inflation declining smoothly and economic resilience somewhat strengthening. The bank relies on data, evaluates successively, and dynamically adjusts its monetary policy stance, paying attention to trade situations. The Federal Reserve’s May interest rate decision remains unchanged, with a resilient labor market and a slight increase in short-term inflation, continuing the balance sheet reduction plan, while economic downside risks are increasing. The U.S. non-farm payrolls in April slightly exceeded expectations, with the unemployment rate remaining unchanged; the April CPI year-on-year showed a moderate decline. Pay attention to the Eurozone’s May manufacturing PMI value this Thursday.

Technical Analysis:

The euro price rebounded slightly yesterday, with a short-term rise followed by a pullback, showing signs of encountering resistance. Pay attention to weakening signals to attempt short positions and take profits in a timely manner. If there is a clear breakout of this resistance structure, the market may strengthen. Overall, from a larger perspective, there is a high-level consolidation followed by a pullback, and the market may enter a correction in the short term, with no signs of a bottoming out yet. The upper resistance area is around 1.1250-1.1300, while the lower support area is around 1.0950-1.1000.

Viewpoint: Weak volatility, short-term rebound, pay attention to weakening signals at resistance levels to attempt short positions.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.