HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0526

Time	Data and Events	Importance
21:00	European Central Bank President Lagarde delivers a speech at the Hertie School in Berlin.	★★★

Variety	Viewpoint	Support Range	Resistance Range
US Dollar Index	Weak fluctuations	97-98	101-102
Gold	Fluctuating rebound	3280-3300	3370-3400
Crude Oil	Short-term fluctuations	57-58	64-65
Euro	Strong fluctuations	1.1300-1.1330	1.1580-1.1600

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

At the beginning of May, the Federal Reserve meeting maintained interest rates, the labor market remained resilient, and the unemployment rate stabilized; the balance sheet reduction plan continues, short-term inflation has risen slightly, long-term inflation is in line with expectations, and the economy is in a stable state with increasing downside risks; the impact of tariffs may exceed expectations, creating uncertainty. In April, non-farm payrolls added 177,000 jobs, slightly exceeding expectations, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged, indicating a robust labor market. The year-on-year CPI in April, not seasonally adjusted, slightly decreased, and expectations for interest rate cuts have risen. Pay attention to the core PCE price index on Friday.

Technical Analysis:

The US Dollar Index performed weakly last week, with daily fluctuations trending downward and no signs of a rebound. In the short term, it may test the previous low support area, and caution is advised regarding the risk of further weakening. Overall, the daily trend is weak, and prices are at relatively low levels; watch for the possibility of new lows. The upper resistance area is around 101-102, while the lower support area is around 97-98.

Viewpoint: Weak fluctuations, no signs of a rebound, pay attention to the effectiveness of the previous low support area.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East are escalating, and the situation in Eastern Europe is unstable. The ECB’s April interest rate decision marked the sixth consecutive 25 basis point cut, with inflation declining smoothly and economic resilience strengthening. The Federal Reserve’s May interest rate decision maintained rates, the labor market remained resilient, short-term inflation rose, and the balance sheet reduction plan continues, with increasing economic downside risks. The US April non-farm data showed job additions exceeding expectations, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged; the year-on-year CPI in April showed a moderate decline. The US tariff policy is becoming more lenient, which may temper gold’s safe-haven appeal.

Technical Analysis:

Gold prices have risen sharply recently, with daily fluctuations trending upward and short-term performance being strong. Currently, it is approaching an important resistance area but has not clearly broken through. Long positions should take profits on highs; if there is a clear breakout of this structure, the market may strengthen further; otherwise, caution is advised regarding the risk of weakening. From a long-term perspective, the daily trend shows a high-level fluctuation structure, with strong short-term rebounds; watch for sustainability. The upper resistance level is around 3370-3400, while the lower support level is around 3280-3300.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating rebound; if holding long positions, take profits on highs and pay attention to the effectiveness of the resistance level.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The May EIA monthly report basically maintains the global crude oil demand expectations for this year and next, while slightly lowering the U.S. crude oil production for this year and next. The OPEC monthly report maintains the global oil demand growth expectations for this year and next, but lowers the economic growth expectations for this year. The IEA monthly report slightly raises the oil demand growth expectations for 2025. At the beginning of May, the OPEC+ member countries’ meeting will increase production in June, accelerating the pace of production increase for the second consecutive month. EIA crude oil inventories have slightly increased, and the supply-demand structure is relatively loose. Attention is on the OPEC and non-OPEC oil-producing countries’ ministerial meeting on Tuesday.

Technical Analysis:

U.S. crude oil showed a fluctuating structure last week, with pressure above and support below, leading to intense short-term trading. The short-term may continue the fluctuating trend, allowing for high selling and low buying to take profits in a timely manner, while watching if the pressure level can be broken. Overall, crude oil has shown weak performance previously, with repeated fluctuations at low levels, and no significant stabilization signs have appeared yet. The upper pressure area is around 64-65, while the lower support area is around 57-58.

Viewpoint: Short-term fluctuations, high selling and low buying, watch if the pressure level can be broken.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The European Central Bank’s April interest rate decision saw a continuous sixth rate cut of 25 basis points, with inflation declining smoothly and economic resilience somewhat enhanced. The policy stance will be dynamically adjusted based on data and assessed gradually, with attention on trade situations. The Federal Reserve’s May interest rate decision remains unchanged, with a resilient labor market, a short-term rise in inflation, and a continued balance sheet reduction plan, while economic downside risks are increasing. The U.S. non-farm payrolls in April slightly exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged; the April CPI year-on-year showed a moderate decline. The Eurozone’s May manufacturing PMI showed slight fluctuations, with a neutral short-term impact.

Technical Analysis:

The euro has recently shown strong performance, with daily fluctuations trending upwards, and there are signs of breaking through the current pressure level, which may open up upward space. The short-term trend is likely to continue to be strong, focusing on buying on dips, while taking profits on highs. Overall, there are signs of stabilization after a pullback, with daily fluctuations trending upwards, and attention on the pressure structure. The upper pressure area is around 1.1580-1.1600, while the lower support area is around 1.1300-1.1330.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating with a strong bias, there may still be upward space, buy on dips and take profits on highs.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.