HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0527

Time	Data and Events	Importance
14:00	Germany’s June Gfk Consumer Confidence Index	★★★
	Switzerland’s April Trade Balance	★★★
14:45	France’s May CPI Final Monthly Rate	★★★
17:00	Eurozone’s May Industrial Sentiment Index	★★★
	Eurozone’s May Economic Sentiment Index	★★★
18:00	UK’s May CBI Retail Sales Balance	★★★
20:30	US’s April Durable Goods Orders Monthly Rate	★★★
21:00	US’s March FHFA House Price Index Monthly Rate	★★★
	US’s March S&P/CS 20-City Composite Home Price Index Yearly Rate	★★★
22:00	US’s May Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index	★★★
22:30	US’s May Dallas Fed Business Activity Index	★★★

Variety	Viewpoint	Support Range	Resistance Range
US Dollar Index	Low-level Fluctuation	97-98	101-102
Gold	High-level Fluctuation	3280-3300	3370-3400
Crude Oil	Short-term Fluctuation	57-58	64-65
Euro	Short-term Fluctuation	1.1300-1.1330	1.1580-1.1600

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operation is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

At the beginning of May, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, the labor market remained resilient, and the unemployment rate stabilized; the balance sheet reduction plan continues, short-term inflation has risen slightly, long-term inflation is in line with expectations, and the economy is in a stable state with increasing downside risks; the impact of tariffs may exceed expectations, creating uncertainty. In April, non-farm payrolls added 177,000 jobs, slightly exceeding expectations, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged, indicating a robust labor market. The unadjusted CPI annual rate for April slightly decreased, raising expectations for future interest rate cuts. Attention is on the core PCE price index on Friday.

Technical Analysis:

The US Dollar Index fell slightly yesterday, showing weak performance in the short cycle, with prices approaching previous low levels and signs of slowing down in the rate of decline. In the short term, fluctuations may occur, and attention should be paid to whether prices show signs of stabilization. Overall, the daily trend is weak, with prices at relatively low levels, and it is important to observe whether new lows can be established. The upper resistance area is around 101-102, while the lower support area is around 97-98.

Viewpoint: Low-level fluctuations, signs of slowing down in the rate of decline, pay attention to the effectiveness of the previous low support area.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operation is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East are escalating, and the situation in Eastern Europe is unstable. The European Central Bank’s April interest rate decision marked the sixth consecutive rate cut of 25 basis points, with inflation declining smoothly and economic resilience increasing. In May, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision remained unchanged, the labor market remained resilient, short-term inflation rose slightly, and the balance sheet reduction plan continued, with increasing economic downside risks. The US’s April non-farm data showed that the number of new jobs exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged; the unadjusted CPI annual rate for April showed a moderate decline. The US tariff policy is tending to ease, which may reduce the safe-haven attributes of gold.

Technical Analysis:

The gold price has slightly retreated during the day, with small cycles showing a downward trend. There are signs of resistance at the pressure level, and one should be wary of the risk of a weakening market. It is advisable to reduce holdings of long positions at high points to take profits, and short-term traders can attempt to seize short opportunities, ensuring timely profit-taking. From a larger cycle perspective, the daily chart shows a high-level oscillation structure, with strong rebounds in small cycles, so attention should be paid to whether this can be sustained. The upper pressure level is around 3370-3400, while the lower support level is around 3280-3300.

Viewpoint: High-level oscillation, signs of resistance at the pressure level, be wary of the risk of a weakening market.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operation is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The May EIA monthly report basically maintains the global oil demand forecast for this and next year, with a slight downward adjustment to U.S. oil production for this and next year; the OPEC monthly report maintains the global oil demand growth forecast for this year and next year, while lowering the economic growth forecast for this year; the IEA monthly report slightly raises the oil demand growth forecast for 2025. The OPEC+ member countries’ meeting in early May will increase production in June, accelerating the pace of production increases for the second consecutive month. EIA crude oil inventories have slightly increased, and the supply-demand structure is relatively loose. Attention should be paid to the ministerial meeting of OPEC and non-OPEC oil-producing countries on Tuesday.

Technical Analysis:

U.S. crude oil experienced slight fluctuations yesterday, with not much volatility. The small cycle is fiercely contested, with pressure above and support below. In the short term, it may maintain an oscillation structure, allowing for both high selling and low buying to take timely profits, while monitoring whether the pressure level can be broken. Overall, crude oil has shown weak performance previously, with repeated oscillations at low levels, and there are no significant signs of stabilization yet. The upper pressure area is around 64-65, while the lower support area is around 57-58.

Viewpoint: Short-term oscillation, high selling and low buying, pay attention to whether the pressure level can be broken.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operation is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The European Central Bank’s April interest rate decision saw a continuous sixth rate cut of 25 basis points, with inflation declining smoothly and economic resilience somewhat enhanced. The monetary policy stance will be dynamically adjusted based on data and assessed in stages, with attention to trade situations. The Federal Reserve’s May interest rate decision remains unchanged, with a resilient labor market and a slight increase in short-term inflation, continuing the balance sheet reduction plan, while the risk of economic downturn increases. The U.S. non-farm payrolls for April slightly exceeded expectations, with the unemployment rate remaining unchanged; the April CPI year-on-year showed a moderate decline. The Eurozone’s May manufacturing PMI showed slight fluctuations, with a neutral short-term impact.

Technical Analysis:

The euro price rose slightly yesterday, with a small cycle showing a rise and then a retreat. The current position has not clearly broken above, so attention should be paid to the pullback effect, and one should be wary of the risk of a weakening market. Intra-day, short positions can be attempted, ensuring timely profit-taking. Overall, there are signs of stabilization after a pullback, with the daily chart showing an upward oscillation, so attention should be paid to the pressure structure. The upper pressure area is around 1.1580-1.1600, while the lower support area is around 1.1300-1.1330.

Viewpoint: Short-term oscillation, the current position has not clearly broken above, be wary of the risk of a weakening market.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operation is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.