HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0603

Time	Data and Events	Importance
09:30	The Reserve Bank of Australia releases the minutes of the June monetary policy meeting.	★★★
14:30	Switzerland’s May CPI month-on-month rate.	★★★
15:50	Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda delivers a speech.	★★★
17:00	Eurozone’s May CPI year-on-year preliminary value.	★★★
	Eurozone’s May CPI month-on-month preliminary value.	★★★
	Eurozone’s April unemployment rate.	★★★
22:00	U.S. April JOLTs job openings.	★★★
	U.S. April factory orders month-on-month rate.	★★★
Next day 00:45	2025 FOMC voting member Goolsbee participates in a Q&A session.	★★★

Variety	Viewpoint	Support range	Resistance range
U.S. Dollar Index	Short-term fluctuations	97-98	101-102
Gold	Fluctuating with a bullish bias	3280-3300	3400-3430
Crude Oil	Short-term fluctuations	57-58	64-65
Euro	Fluctuating with a bullish bias	1.1320-1.1350	1.1550-1.1580

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are based on predictions, and are for reference and learning purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

At the beginning of May, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, the labor market remained resilient, and the unemployment rate was stable; the balance sheet reduction plan continues, short-term inflation has risen slightly, long-term inflation is in line with expectations, and the economy is in a stable state with increasing downside risks. In April, non-farm payrolls added 177,000 jobs, slightly exceeding expectations, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged, indicating a robust labor market. The unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate for April slightly decreased, raising expectations for future interest rate cuts. Focus on Friday’s non-farm data.

Technical Analysis:

The U.S. Dollar Index fell yesterday, closing with a bearish candle on the daily chart. The short-term performance is relatively weak, and prices are at a relatively low level, likely to fluctuate back and forth without a stabilization signal. Pay attention to the support effect of previous lows. Overall, the daily chart shows a weak fluctuation, with prices at a relatively low level, and watch for whether prices will create new lows. The upper resistance area is around 101-102, while the lower support area is around 97-98.

Viewpoint: Short-term fluctuations, prices are at a relatively low level, and no stabilization signal has appeared yet.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are based on predictions, and are for reference and learning purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East are escalating, and the situation in Eastern Europe is unstable. The European Central Bank’s April interest rate decision marked the sixth consecutive rate cut of 25 basis points, with inflation declining smoothly and economic resilience strengthening. In May, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision remained unchanged, the labor market was resilient, short-term inflation rose slightly, and the balance sheet reduction plan continues, with increasing economic downside risks. The U.S. April non-farm data showed job additions exceeding expectations, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged; the unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate for April showed a moderate decline. Focus on Thursday’s ECB interest rate decision and Friday’s U.S. non-farm data.

Technical Analysis:

Gold prices surged significantly yesterday, closing with a large bullish candle, showing strong short-term performance. Currently, prices are close to the resistance area, which may lead to selling pressure. If holding long positions, consider taking profits on highs, and attempt a dip-buying strategy. From a larger perspective, the daily chart shows a high-level fluctuation structure, with no signs of weakening, and may test the resistance level. The upper resistance level is around 3400-3430, while the lower support level is around 3280-3300.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating with a slight upward bias, approaching resistance levels, short selling opportunities can be attempted.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are based on predictions, and are for reference and learning purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The May EIA monthly report basically maintains the global crude oil demand expectations for this year and next, with a slight downward adjustment to U.S. crude oil production for this year and next; the OPEC monthly report maintains the global oil demand growth expectations for this year and next, while lowering the economic growth expectations for this year; the IEA monthly report slightly raises the oil demand growth expectations for 2025. At the end of May, the OPEC+ ministerial meeting agreed to set the 2025 oil production as the benchmark for 2027, with another round of negotiations scheduled for early June, potentially reaching an agreement to accelerate oil production increases in July. Pay attention to the EIA crude oil inventory data on Wednesday.

Technical Analysis:

U.S. crude oil has recently shown a fluctuating structure, with prices oscillating within a small range. In the short term, bulls may have a slight advantage, currently approaching the resistance area. If there is a clear breakout, the market may strengthen, and at that time, attempts to buy on dips can be made. Overall, crude oil has shown relatively weak performance previously, with repeated fluctuations at low levels, and no significant signs of stabilization have appeared. The upper resistance area is around 64-65, while the lower support area is around 57-58.

Viewpoint: Short-term fluctuations, bulls have a slight advantage, pay attention to whether the resistance structure can be broken.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are based on predictions, and are for reference and learning purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The European Central Bank’s April interest rate decision saw a continuous sixth rate cut of 25 basis points, with inflation declining smoothly and economic resilience somewhat enhanced, relying on data for gradual assessment and dynamic adjustment of monetary policy stance. The May Federal Reserve interest rate decision remained unchanged, with a resilient labor market, a slight rise in short-term inflation, and continued balance sheet reduction plans, while economic downside risks have increased. The U.S. non-farm payrolls in April slightly exceeded expectations, with the unemployment rate remaining unchanged; the April CPI year-on-year showed a moderate decline. The Eurozone’s May manufacturing PMI showed slight fluctuations, with a neutral short-term impact. Pay attention to the European Central Bank’s interest rate decision on Thursday.

Technical Analysis:

The euro has recently shown a strong performance, with daily fluctuations moving upward, possibly indicating further strength. In the short term, attempts to buy on dips can be made, while taking profits on highs, and attention should be paid to whether the price can break through previous highs. Overall, the daily fluctuations are moving upward, possibly testing the previous high resistance level. The upper resistance area is around 1.1550-1.1580, while the lower support area is around 1.1320-1.1350.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating with a slight upward bias, short-term attempts to buy on dips can be made, while taking profits on highs.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are based on predictions, and are for reference and learning purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.