HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0604

Time	Data and Events	Importance
04:30	U.S. API crude oil inventory for the week ending May 30	★★★
09:30	Australia’s Q1 GDP year-on-year	★★★
12:00	U.S. President Trump raises the import tariff on steel from 25% to 50%	★★★
15:50	France May Services PMI Final	★★★
15:55	Germany May Services PMI Final	★★★
16:00	Eurozone May Services PMI Final	★★★
16:30	UK May Services PMI Final	★★★
20:15	U.S. May ADP Employment Change	★★★★
21:45	Canada Bank Rate Decision for the week ending June 4	★★★
	U.S. May S&P Global Services PMI Final	★★★
22:00	U.S. May ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI	★★★
22:30	U.S. EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending May 30	★★★★
	U.S. EIA Cushing, Oklahoma crude oil inventory for the week ending May 30	★★★
	U.S. EIA Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventory for the week ending May 30	★★★
Next Day 02:00	Federal Reserve releases Beige Book on economic conditions	★★★

Variety	Viewpoint	Support Range	Resistance Range
U.S. Dollar Index	Short-term fluctuations	97-98	101-102
Gold	Fluctuating with a bullish bias	3280-3300	3400-3430
Crude Oil	Short-term fluctuations	57-58	64-65
Euro	Fluctuating with a bullish bias	1.1320-1.1350	1.1550-1.1580

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are speculative in nature, and are for reference and learning purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operation is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

At the beginning of May, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, the labor market remained resilient, and the unemployment rate was stable; the balance sheet reduction plan continues, short-term inflation has risen slightly, long-term inflation is in line with expectations, and the economy is in a stable state with increasing downside risks; the impact of tariffs may exceed expectations, creating uncertainty. In April, non-farm payrolls added 177,000 jobs, slightly exceeding expectations, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged, indicating a robust labor market. The April unadjusted CPI year-on-year decreased slightly, raising expectations for future rate cuts. Attention is on Friday’s non-farm payroll data.

Technical Analysis:

The U.S. Dollar Index has recently shown a fluctuating structure, with prices testing previous low areas and showing a slight rebound, but has not yet stabilized at a higher level. Prices are at relatively low levels, and short-term fluctuations may continue. Overall, the daily trend is weak, with prices at relatively low levels, so watch for whether prices will create new lows. The upper resistance area is around 101-102, while the lower support area is around 97-98.

Viewpoint: Short-term fluctuations, with prices at relatively low levels and no stabilization signals yet.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are speculative in nature, and are for reference and learning purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operation is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East continue to escalate, and the situation in Eastern Europe remains unstable. The European Central Bank’s April interest rate decision saw a consecutive sixth rate cut of 25 basis points, with inflation easing smoothly and economic resilience strengthening. In May, the Federal Reserve maintained its interest rate decision, with a resilient labor market and a slight increase in short-term inflation, while continuing its balance sheet reduction plan, leading to increased economic downside risks. The U.S. non-farm payroll data for April showed that the number of new jobs exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged; the unadjusted CPI year-on-year for April saw a moderate decline. Attention is on the ECB’s interest rate decision on Thursday and the U.S. non-farm data on Friday.

Technical Analysis:

Gold prices saw a slight pullback yesterday, with a small cycle of retracement stabilizing, and short-term bullish sentiment prevailing, potentially continuing to test resistance areas. There may be opportunities to buy on dips and take profits on highs. From a larger cycle perspective, the daily chart shows a high-level oscillation structure without signs of weakening, likely testing resistance levels. The upper resistance area is around 3400-3430, while the lower support area is around 3280-3300.

Viewpoint: Oscillating with a slight bullish bias, consider buying on dips and taking profits in a timely manner.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are speculative in nature, and are for reference and learning purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operation is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The May EIA monthly report maintains the global oil demand forecast for this and next year, with a slight downward adjustment to U.S. oil production for this and next year; the OPEC monthly report maintains the global oil demand growth forecast for this year while lowering the economic growth forecast; the IEA monthly report slightly raises the oil demand growth forecast for 2025. At the end of May, the OPEC+ ministerial meeting agreed to set the 2025 oil production as a benchmark for 2027, with another round of negotiations scheduled for early June, potentially reaching an agreement to accelerate oil production increases in July. Attention is on the EIA crude oil inventory data on Wednesday.

Technical Analysis:

U.S. crude oil continued its oscillating trend yesterday, with a small cycle rebound testing resistance levels again, but without a clear structural breakthrough. In the short term, it may maintain oscillation, focusing on whether the pressure area can break upwards, which could lead to a stronger market. Overall, crude oil has shown weak performance previously, with repeated oscillations at low levels and no significant signs of stabilization. The upper pressure area is around 64-65, while the lower support area is around 57-58.

Viewpoint: Short-term oscillation with a slight bullish bias, focus on whether the pressure structure can break upwards.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are speculative in nature, and are for reference and learning purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operation is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The ECB’s April interest rate decision saw a consecutive sixth rate cut of 25 basis points, with inflation easing smoothly and economic resilience strengthening, relying on data for gradual assessment and dynamic adjustment of monetary policy stance. In May, the Federal Reserve maintained its interest rate decision, with a resilient labor market and a slight increase in short-term inflation, while continuing its balance sheet reduction plan, leading to increased economic downside risks. The U.S. April non-farm employment figures slightly exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged; the CPI year-on-year for April saw a moderate decline. The Eurozone’s May manufacturing PMI showed slight fluctuations, with a neutral short-term impact. Attention is on the ECB’s interest rate decision on Thursday.

Technical Analysis:

The euro saw a slight pullback yesterday, with a small cycle oscillating downwards, and there may be selling pressure above. Currently, it is close to the support area, so attention should be paid to signs of stabilization, at which point buying on dips can be attempted, and profits should be taken in a timely manner, while also monitoring whether prices can reach new highs. Overall, the daily chart shows an upward oscillation, likely testing previous high resistance levels. The upper resistance area is around 1.1550-1.1580, while the lower support area is around 1.1320-1.1350.

Viewpoint: Oscillating with a slight bullish bias, focus on stabilization signals, attempt buying on dips, and take profits in a timely manner.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are speculative in nature, and are for reference and learning purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operation is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.