HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0626

Time	Data and Events	Importance
14:00	Germany’s July Gfk Consumer Confidence Index	★★★
18:00	UK’s June CBI Retail Sales Balance	★★★
19:00	Bank of England Governor Bailey delivers a keynote speech at the British Chamber of Commerce Global Annual Conference	★★★
20:30	U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending June 21	★★★★
	U.S. Q1 Final Annualized GDP Growth Rate	★★★
	U.S. Q1 Final Annualized Personal Consumption Expenditures Growth Rate	★★★
	U.S. Q1 Final Annualized Core PCE Price Index Growth Rate	★★★
	U.S. May Durable Goods Orders Month-on-Month	★★★
22:00	U.S. May Pending Home Sales Index Month-on-Month	★★★
22:30	U.S. EIA Natural Gas Inventory for the week ending June 20	★★★
Next Day 02:30	European Central Bank President Lagarde delivers a speech	★★★

Variety	Viewpoint	Support Range	Resistance Range
U.S. Dollar Index	Fluctuating Weak	96-97	100-100.5
Gold	Short-term Adjustment	3280-3300	3360-3380
Crude Oil	Short-term Pullback	64-65	79-80
Euro	Fluctuating Strong	1.1580-1.1600	1.1800-1.1850

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

In June, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates for the fourth consecutive time, with the dot plot indicating two rate cuts within the year. Inflation levels are slightly high, and uncertainty in the economic outlook has somewhat diminished, with the unemployment rate at a low level and a stable labor market. In May, non-farm payrolls added 139,000 jobs, which was basically in line with expectations, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged, indicating a robust labor market. The unadjusted CPI year-on-year for May slightly increased but was below expectations, with a neutral short-term impact.

Technical Analysis:

The U.S. Dollar Index has recently shown weak performance, with daily fluctuations trending downward, and new lows in shorter cycles without signs of a rebound. There is selling pressure above, and the short-term outlook may continue to be weak. Overall, the larger structure indicates a weak fluctuation, with a large bearish candle on the weekly chart, maintaining a weak trend. The resistance area is around 100-100.5, while the support area is around 96-97.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating weak, prices are making new lows without signs of a rebound.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is escalating, with conflicts between Israel and Iran and instability in Eastern Europe. The ECB’s June interest rate decision marked the seventh consecutive rate cut of 25 basis points, nearing the end of the rate-cutting cycle, with downward revisions to inflation expectations for this year and next, as well as GDP growth forecasts for next year. The Federal Reserve’s June interest rate decision maintained rates, with slightly high inflation levels and a stable labor market, indicating two rate cuts within the year according to the dot plot. The U.S. May non-farm payrolls saw a slight decline in job additions, with the unemployment rate remaining unchanged; the unadjusted CPI year-on-year for May showed slight warming. Attention is on changes in the Middle East situation.

Technical Analysis:

The gold price rose slightly yesterday, with a small cycle of oscillation and rebound. The support area has not been significantly broken, so we should pay attention to signals of stabilization after the decline. However, there may be selling pressure above, and the probability of oscillation in the short term is relatively high. It is advisable to look for short-term long opportunities and take profits in a timely manner. From a larger cycle perspective, the daily line shows a strong oscillation, encountering resistance and falling near previous highs. The upper pressure level is around 3360-3380, while the lower support level is around 3280-3300.

Opinion: Short-term adjustment, the support area has not been broken, and we can look for short-term long opportunities to take profits in a timely manner.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The June EIA monthly report slightly raised oil prices for this year and next; the OPEC monthly report maintained the global oil demand growth forecast for this year and next, as well as the economic growth forecast for this year and next; the IEA monthly report slightly lowered the oil demand forecast for this year and next. At the end of May, the OPEC+ ministerial meeting agreed to set the 2025 oil production as the benchmark for 2027, with another round of negotiations expected in early June, potentially reaching an agreement to accelerate oil production increases in July. EIA crude oil inventories have decreased for the fifth consecutive week, and this data is highly volatile, which may affect the supply-demand structure.

Technical Analysis:

U.S. crude oil experienced slight fluctuations yesterday, with the daily line closing with a small real body candle, indicating signs of small cycle oscillation and consolidation, with the speed of decline slowing down. The current price is close to an important support area, so we should pay attention to signals of stabilization after the decline, at which point we can look for low long opportunities. Overall, crude oil has risen significantly in the past, reaching a pressure area above, and is currently undergoing a short-term correction. The upper pressure area is around 79-80, while the lower support area is around 64-65.

Opinion: Short-term correction, the price is testing the neck support structure, and we should pay attention to signals of stabilization after the decline.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The European Central Bank’s June interest rate decision saw a 25 basis point cut for the seventh consecutive time, with the rate-cutting cycle nearing its end. There has been no discussion on neutral interest rates, and inflation expectations for this year and next have been lowered, along with GDP growth rate expectations for next year. Trade upgrades have led to a slowdown in economic growth and inflation. The June Federal Reserve interest rate decision remained unchanged, with a robust labor market, slightly elevated short-term inflation, and reduced economic uncertainty. The dot plot indicates two rate cuts within the year. The Eurozone’s June manufacturing PMI slightly missed expectations, with not much difference.

Technical Analysis:

The euro has recently shown strong performance, with the daily line oscillating upward and the small cycle reaching new highs. If there are long positions, it is advisable to appropriately reduce holdings and take profits at highs, while maintaining a strong bias in the short term and looking for low long opportunities on pullbacks. Overall, the daily line shows an upward oscillation with a strong structure on a larger scale. The upper pressure area is around 1.1800-1.1850, while the lower support area is around 1.1580-1.1600.

Opinion: Oscillation is strong, pay attention to low long opportunities on pullbacks, and reduce holdings to take profits at highs.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.