HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0701

Time	Data and Events	Importance
14:00	UK June Nationwide House Price Index MoM	★★★
14:30	Switzerland May Real Retail Sales YoY	★★★
15:50	France June Manufacturing PMI Final	★★★
15:55	Germany June Manufacturing PMI Final	★★★
	Germany June Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Change	★★★
	Germany June Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate	★★★
16:00	Eurozone June Manufacturing PMI Final	★★★
16:30	UK June Manufacturing PMI Final	★★★
17:00	Eurozone June CPI YoY Preliminary	★★★
	Eurozone June CPI MoM Preliminary	★★★
21:30	Major central bank governors (including Federal Reserve Chair Powell, ECB President Lagarde, Bank of England Governor, Bank of Japan Governor, etc.) hold a panel discussion	★★★★★
21:45	US June S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final	★★★
22:00	US June ISM Manufacturing PMI	★★★★
	US May JOLTs Job Openings	★★★
	US May Construction Spending MoM	★★★

Variety	Viewpoint	Support Range	Resistance Range
US Dollar Index	Weak oscillation	96-97	99.5-100
Gold	Short-term rebound	3220-3250	3330-3350
Crude Oil	Short-term adjustment	64-65	79-80
Euro	Strong oscillation	1.1680-1.1700	1.1800-1.1850

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are speculative in nature, and are for reference and learning purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operation is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

In June, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates for the fourth consecutive time. The dot plot indicates two rate cuts within the year. Inflation levels are slightly high, but uncertainty in the economic outlook has somewhat diminished, and the unemployment rate remains low, indicating a stable labor market. In May, non-farm payrolls added 139,000 jobs, which is in line with expectations, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged, showing a robust labor market. The unadjusted CPI YoY in May rose slightly but was below expectations; the core PCE price index also saw a slight rebound. Focus on Tuesday’s manufacturing PMI and Thursday’s June non-farm data.

Technical Analysis:

The US Dollar Index continued to decline yesterday, closing with a bearish candlestick. The short-term cycle continues to create lower lows, with no signs of a reversal, indicating potential further downside. The short-term outlook remains weak, and attention should be paid to changes in the short-term candlestick patterns. Overall, the larger structure shows a weak oscillation, with the weekly chart closing with a large bearish candlestick, maintaining a weak trend. The upper resistance area is around 99.5-100, while the lower support area is around 96-97.

Viewpoint: Weak oscillation, prices have reached new lows with no signs of stabilization.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are speculative in nature, and are for reference and learning purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operation is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The geopolitical situation in the Middle East continues to escalate, with conflicts between Israel and Iran, and instability in Eastern Europe. The European Central Bank’s June interest rate decision saw a consecutive seventh rate cut of 25 basis points, nearing the end of the rate-cutting cycle, while lowering inflation expectations for this year and next, as well as GDP growth expectations for next year. The Federal Reserve’s June interest rate decision remained unchanged, with inflation levels slightly high and a robust labor market, while the dot plot indicates two rate cuts within the year. In May, the U.S. non-farm payrolls saw a slight decline in new jobs, with the unemployment rate remaining unchanged; the unadjusted CPI year-on-year in May showed a slight increase. Attention is on U.S. non-farm data.

Technical Analysis:

Gold prices saw a significant rebound yesterday, with short-term fluctuations trending upwards. The support below is quite effective, and the price is currently in a recent resistance area, so caution is advised for potential price obstacles. If there are long positions, it is advisable to take profits at highs; if the structure is clearly broken upwards, the market may strengthen; otherwise, the probability of fluctuations is high. From a longer-term perspective, the daily chart shows high-level fluctuations, with prices moving back and forth. The upper resistance level is around 3330-3350, while the lower support level is around 3220-3250.

Viewpoint: Short-term rebound; if there are long positions, take profits in a timely manner and watch if the current resistance level can be broken.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are speculative in nature, and are for reference and learning purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operation is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The June EIA monthly report slightly raised oil price forecasts for this year and next; the OPEC monthly report maintained global oil demand growth expectations for this year and next, as well as economic growth expectations for this year and next; the IEA monthly report slightly lowered oil demand expectations for this year and next. At the end of May, the OPEC+ ministerial meeting agreed to set 2025 oil production as the benchmark for 2027, with another round of negotiations expected in early June, potentially reaching an agreement to accelerate oil production increases in July. Attention is on the EIA crude oil inventory report on Wednesday.

Technical Analysis:

U.S. crude oil continued to experience slight fluctuations yesterday, with the daily line closing with a small real body. The short-term market is in a state of contention, with recent trends in a small-level adjustment and no signs of stabilization yet. Attention is on the effectiveness of the current important support structure. Overall, crude oil has seen a significant rise previously, reaching a pressure area, and is currently undergoing a short-term correction. The upper pressure area is around 79-80, while the lower support area is around 64-65.

Viewpoint: Short-term adjustment; prices are testing the neckline support structure, watch for signs of stabilization.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are speculative in nature, and are for reference and learning purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operation is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The European Central Bank’s June interest rate decision saw a consecutive seventh rate cut of 25 basis points, nearing the end of the rate-cutting cycle, with discussions on neutral interest rates yet to occur. The bank lowered inflation expectations for this year and next, as well as GDP growth expectations for next year, due to trade escalations leading to slower economic growth and inflation. The Federal Reserve’s June interest rate decision remained unchanged, with a robust labor market, slightly high short-term inflation, and reduced economic uncertainty, while the dot plot indicates two rate cuts within the year. The Eurozone’s June manufacturing PMI slightly missed expectations, with not much difference. Attention is on U.S. non-farm data.

Technical Analysis:

The euro price continued to rise yesterday, breaking upwards after narrow fluctuations in the night session. The short-term trend remains strong, with the price nearing resistance levels. It is advisable to reduce long positions at highs and primarily adopt a buy-on-dips strategy. Overall, the daily chart shows an upward trend, with a strong structure on a larger scale. The upper resistance area is around 1.1800-1.1850, while the lower small-level support area is around 1.1680-1.1700.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating with a strong bias; watch for buying opportunities on dips and reduce positions to take profits at highs.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are speculative in nature, and are for reference and learning purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operation is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.