HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0703

Time	Data and Events	Importance
14:30	Switzerland June CPI MoM	★★★
15:50	France June Services PMI Final	★★★
15:55	Germany June Services PMI Final	★★★
16:00	Eurozone June Services PMI Final	★★★
16:30	UK June Services PMI Final	★★★
19:30	European Central Bank releases June monetary policy meeting minutes	★★★
20:30	US June Unemployment Rate	★★★★★
	US June Non-Farm Payrolls (Adjusted)	★★★★★
	US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending June 28	★★★★
	US June Average Hourly Earnings YoY	★★★
	US June Average Hourly Earnings MoM	★★★
	US May Trade Balance	★★★
21:45	US June S&P Global Services PMI Final	★★★
22:00	US June ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI	★★★
	US May Factory Orders MoM	★★★
23:00	2027 FOMC voting member Bostic speaks on US monetary policy	★★★

Variety	Viewpoint	Support Range	Resistance Range
US Dollar Index	Weak oscillation	96-97	99.5-100
Gold	Short-term rebound	3220-3250	3350-3380
Crude Oil	Strong oscillation	64-65	79-80
Euro	Strong oscillation	1.1680-1.1700	1.1830-1.1850

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

In June, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates for the fourth consecutive time, with the dot plot indicating two rate cuts within the year. Inflation levels are slightly high, and uncertainty in the economic outlook has somewhat diminished, with the unemployment rate at a low level and a stable labor market. In May, non-farm payrolls added 139,000 jobs, roughly in line with expectations, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged, indicating a robust labor market. The unadjusted CPI YoY for May rose slightly but was below expectations; the core PCE price index saw a slight rebound; and the ISM manufacturing PMI for May also showed a slight increase. Focus on Thursday’s non-farm data.

Technical Analysis:

The US Dollar Index saw a slight rebound yesterday, with a high during the night session followed by a pullback. There may be selling pressure above, but prices did not create new lows, indicating a potential for short-term oscillation or a secondary rebound. Overall, the larger structure shows a weak oscillation trend, with a large bearish candle on the weekly chart, maintaining a weak market structure. The resistance area is around 99.5-100, while the support area is around 96-97.

Viewpoint: Weak oscillation, slowing decline, possible small cycle oscillation or rebound. Focus on non-farm data.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The geopolitical situation in the Middle East continues to escalate, with conflicts between Israel and Iran, and instability in Eastern Europe. The European Central Bank’s June interest rate decision saw a 25 basis point cut for the seventh consecutive time, nearing the end of the rate-cutting cycle, while lowering inflation expectations for this year and next, as well as GDP growth expectations for next year. The Federal Reserve’s June interest rate decision remained unchanged, with inflation levels slightly high and a robust labor market, while the dot plot indicates two rate cuts within the year. In May, the U.S. non-farm payrolls saw a slight decline in new jobs, with the unemployment rate remaining unchanged; the unadjusted CPI year-on-year in May showed a slight increase. Attention is on U.S. non-farm data.

Technical Analysis:

Gold prices rose slightly yesterday, with a short-term oscillation. The current price is in a pressure zone, but there are no signs of weakness yet. If there are long positions, it is advisable to reduce holdings for profit and watch if this structure can break through significantly. From a longer-term perspective, the daily chart shows high-level oscillation, with prices fluctuating back and forth. The upper pressure level is around 3350-3380, while the lower support level is around 3220-3250.

Viewpoint: Short-term rebound; if there are long positions, take profits in a timely manner and watch if the current pressure level can be broken.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The June EIA monthly report slightly raised oil price forecasts for this year and next; the OPEC monthly report maintained global oil demand growth expectations for this year and next, as well as economic growth expectations for this year and next; the IEA monthly report slightly lowered oil demand expectations for this year and next. At the end of May, the OPEC+ ministerial meeting agreed to set 2025 oil production as the benchmark for 2027, with another round of negotiations expected in early June, potentially reaching an agreement to accelerate oil production increases in July. On Wednesday, EIA crude oil inventories saw a significant increase, with data showing considerable volatility that may affect supply and demand dynamics.

Technical Analysis:

U.S. crude oil saw a slight increase in last night’s trading, with the daily line closing in the green. After a period of oscillation, it broke upward, showing signs of stabilization. In the short term, focus on opportunities for low buying on pullbacks and reducing holdings for profit at highs. Overall, crude oil has seen a significant pullback previously, testing an important structure, which may signal stabilization. The upper pressure area is around 79-80, while the lower support area is around 64-65.

Viewpoint: Oscillation is biased towards strength, with signs of stabilization in the support structure; focus on opportunities for low buying on pullbacks.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The European Central Bank’s June interest rate decision saw a 25 basis point cut for the seventh consecutive time, nearing the end of the rate-cutting cycle, and has not yet discussed neutral interest rates. It lowered inflation expectations for this year and next, as well as GDP growth expectations for next year, with trade escalations leading to slower economic growth and inflation. The Federal Reserve’s June interest rate decision remained unchanged, with a robust labor market and slightly high short-term inflation, while economic uncertainty has decreased, with the dot plot indicating two rate cuts within the year. The Eurozone’s June manufacturing PMI slightly missed expectations, with not much difference. Attention is on U.S. non-farm data.

Technical Analysis:

The euro price oscillated slightly yesterday, with a small pullback during the night followed by an increase, but it failed to create a new high. It is currently close to a pressure zone, and caution is advised as there may be selling pressure above. If there are long positions, it is advisable to reduce holdings for profit, as the short-term probability of oscillation back and forth is high. Overall, the daily chart shows an upward oscillation, with a strong structure on a larger scale. The upper pressure area is around 1.1830-1.1850, while the lower small-level support area is around 1.1680-1.1700.

Viewpoint: Oscillation is biased towards strength, with prices close to the pressure zone; reduce holdings for profit on long positions.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.