HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0707

Time	Data and Events	Importance
14:00	Germany’s May seasonally adjusted industrial output month-on-month	★★★
	UK’s June Halifax seasonally adjusted house price index month-on-month	★★★
16:30	Eurozone’s July Sentix investor confidence index	★★★
17:00	Eurozone’s May retail sales month-on-month	★★★
22:00	US’s June global supply chain pressure index	★★★

Variety	Viewpoint	Support Range	Resistance Range
US Dollar Index	Fluctuating slightly weak	96-97	99.5-100
Gold	Fluctuating slightly weak	3220-3250	3350-3380
Crude Oil	Fluctuating slightly strong	64-65	79-80
Euro	Fluctuating slightly strong	1.1680-1.1700	1.1830-1.1850

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

In June, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates for the fourth consecutive time, with the dot plot indicating two rate cuts within the year. Inflation levels are slightly high, uncertainty in the economic outlook has somewhat diminished, and the unemployment rate is at a low level, indicating a stable labor market. In June, non-farm payrolls added 147,000 jobs, slightly above expectations, with an unemployment rate of 4.1%, lower than previous values and expectations, showing a robust labor market. The unadjusted CPI year-on-year for May slightly increased but was below expectations; the core PCE price index for May slightly rebounded; the ISM manufacturing PMI for May slightly rebounded.

Technical Analysis:

The US Dollar Index rebounded last week after a period of continuous decline, showing signs of slowing down. It is not advisable to be overly bearish; the short-term trend may continue to fluctuate or rebound, and a significant stabilization has not yet occurred. Overall, the large-scale structure is slightly weak, with a slowing decline and no signs of stabilization. The upper resistance area is around 99.5-100, while the lower support area is around 96-97.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating slightly weak, with a slowing decline, and a possibility of short-term fluctuations or rebounds.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is escalating, with conflicts between Israel and Iran, and instability in Eastern Europe. The European Central Bank’s June interest rate decision marked the seventh consecutive rate cut of 25 basis points, nearing the end of the rate-cutting cycle, while lowering inflation expectations for this and next year and revising down GDP growth expectations for next year. The Federal Reserve’s June interest rate decision maintained rates, with slightly high inflation levels and a stable labor market, indicating two rate cuts within the year. In June, non-farm payrolls added 147,000 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.1%, both slightly better than expected; the unadjusted CPI year-on-year for May showed slight warming.

Technical Analysis:

Gold prices rebounded slightly last week but faced resistance and fell back, showing signs of weakening, and there may still be room for decline. Short-term, one can attempt to take short positions while ensuring timely profits and paying attention to the effectiveness of the lower support area. In the larger cycle, the daily chart shows high-level fluctuations, with prices moving back and forth. The upper small-level resistance is around 3350-3380, while the lower support is around 3220-3250.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating slightly weak, with potential selling pressure above, and short-term opportunities for short positions can be attempted.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

In the June EIA monthly report, crude oil prices for this year and next were slightly revised upward; the OPEC monthly report maintained its global oil demand growth expectations for this year and next, as well as its economic growth expectations; the IEA monthly report slightly lowered its oil demand expectations for this year and next. At the end of May, the OPEC+ ministerial meeting agreed to set 2025 oil production as the benchmark for 2027, with another round of negotiations scheduled for early June, potentially reaching an agreement to accelerate oil production increases in July. On Wednesday, EIA crude oil inventories saw a significant increase, with data showing considerable volatility that may affect the supply-demand structure.

Technical Analysis:

U.S. crude oil rebounded slightly last week, with moderate strength. It opened lower in the morning and tested the support area, focusing on whether a stabilization signal would appear, at which point a low-buy opportunity could be attempted. If it breaks below the support structure, the market may enter a weak oscillation pattern. Overall, crude oil has seen a significant pullback previously, testing important structures, and a stabilization signal may emerge. The upper pressure area is around 79-80, while the lower support area is around 64-65.

Viewpoint: Oscillating with a slight upward bias, short-term testing of the support structure, focusing on stabilization signals.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The European Central Bank’s June interest rate decision saw a consecutive seventh rate cut of 25 basis points, nearing the end of the rate-cutting cycle, with no discussion on neutral interest rates. It lowered inflation expectations for this year and next, as well as GDP growth expectations for next year, citing trade upgrades leading to slower economic growth and inflation. In June, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision remained unchanged, with a robust labor market, slightly elevated short-term inflation, and reduced economic uncertainty, with the dot plot indicating two rate cuts within the year. The Eurozone’s June manufacturing PMI slightly missed expectations, with not much difference.

Technical Analysis:

The euro has recently shown a slightly oscillating performance, with multiple daily attempts to rise without significantly breaking new highs, indicating signs of resistance in the short cycle. Caution is advised regarding potential selling pressure above, as there is a risk of the market weakening. If there are long positions, consider taking profits on highs. Overall, the daily chart shows an oscillating upward trend, with a strong structure on a larger scale. The upper pressure area is around 1.1830-1.1850, while the lower small-scale support area is around 1.1680-1.1700.

Viewpoint: Oscillating with a slight upward bias, signs of resistance in the pressure area, caution is advised for potential short-term market corrections.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.