HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0717

Time	Data and Events	Importance
To be determined	G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting, until July 18	★★★
09:30	Australia’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for June	★★★
14:00	Switzerland’s trade balance for June	★★★
	UK’s three-month ILO unemployment rate for May	★★★
	UK’s unemployment rate for June	★★★
	UK’s number of unemployment benefit claims for June	★★★
17:00	Eurozone’s final CPI year-on-year for June	★★★
	Eurozone’s final CPI month-on-month for June	★★★
20:30	US initial jobless claims for the week ending July 12	★★★★
	US retail sales month-on-month for June	★★★★
	US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for July	★★★
	US import price index month-on-month for June	★★★
22:00	Federal Reserve Governor Cook speaks on the housing market and US economic outlook	★★★
	US NAHB Housing Market Index for July	★★★
	US business inventories month-on-month for May	★★★

Variety	Viewpoint	Support range	Resistance range
US Dollar Index	Short-term rebound	96-97	99.5-100
Gold	Fluctuating rebound	3300-3330	3380-3400
Crude oil	Short-term adjustment	64-65	79-80
Euro	Fluctuating pullback	1.1520-1.1550	1.1700-1.1720

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

In June, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates for the fourth consecutive time, with the dot plot indicating two rate cuts within the year. Inflation levels are slightly high, and uncertainty regarding the economic outlook has somewhat diminished, with the unemployment rate at a low level and a stable labor market. In June, non-farm payrolls added 147,000 jobs, slightly above expectations, with an unemployment rate of 4.1%, lower than previous values and expectations, indicating a robust labor market. The core PCE price index for May saw a slight rebound; the ISM Manufacturing PMI for May also saw a slight rebound; the year-on-year CPI for June showed a slight increase, with moderate inflation rising in line with expectations.

Technical Analysis:

The US Dollar Index experienced significant fluctuations yesterday, with a slight rise during the night session followed by a substantial pullback. By the end of the day, there were signs of stabilization in the short cycle, and there may still be upward space in the short term, maintaining a higher probability of a fluctuating rebound. Overall, the larger structure shows a weak fluctuation, with a slowing decline, entering a rebound phase in the short term. The upper resistance area is around 99.5-100, while the lower support area is around 96-97.

Viewpoint: Short-term rebound, with bulls in the dominant position, may still have rebound space.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The geopolitical situation in the Middle East continues to escalate, with conflicts between Israel and Iran, and instability in Eastern Europe. The European Central Bank’s June interest rate decision saw a 25 basis point cut for the seventh consecutive time, nearing the end of the rate-cutting cycle, while lowering inflation expectations for this year and next, as well as GDP growth expectations for next year. The Federal Reserve’s June interest rate decision remained unchanged, with inflation levels slightly high and a robust labor market, while the dot plot indicates two rate cuts within the year. In June, the U.S. non-farm payrolls added 147,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate was 4.1%, both slightly better than expected; the June CPI year-on-year rate showed a slight increase, in line with expectations.

Technical Analysis:

Gold prices rose and then fell in the night session, encountering resistance in the upper pressure zone and failing to break through significantly, with short-term fluctuations likely to continue testing the pressure. During the day, there may be opportunities for short-term long positions, with timely profit-taking on highs. From a larger perspective, the daily chart shows high-level fluctuations, with prices moving back and forth. The upper pressure level is around 3380-3400, while the lower support level is around 3300-3330.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating rebound, pay attention to stabilization signals, attempt short-term long opportunities, and take profits in a timely manner.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The July EIA monthly report slightly raised this year’s crude oil price expectations; the OPEC monthly report indicated a slight increase in June production, maintaining global oil demand growth expectations for this year; the IEA monthly report slightly lowered oil demand expectations for this year and next. At the beginning of July, the OPEC+ meeting agreed to increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, with further production increases expected in September and discussions on pausing production increases starting in October. As of the week ending July 11, EIA crude oil inventories saw a significant decrease, with recent data showing large fluctuations that may affect supply and demand dynamics.

Technical Analysis:

U.S. crude oil continued to experience slight fluctuations yesterday, with a rebound after hitting a low in the night session, and prices are near the support area without a significant breakdown. In the short term, fluctuations may continue, with attention on signs of stabilization; at that point, low long opportunities can be attempted. If the support area is clearly broken, the market may weaken. Overall, crude oil is in a support area with fluctuating adjustments, focusing on signs of stabilization at a larger level. The upper pressure area is around 79-80, while the lower support area is around 64-65.

Viewpoint: Short-term adjustment, small cycles are fluctuating, pay attention to whether stabilization signals appear.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The European Central Bank’s June interest rate decision saw a 25 basis point cut for the seventh consecutive time, nearing the end of the rate-cutting cycle, and has not yet discussed the neutral interest rate, while lowering inflation expectations for this year and next, as well as GDP growth expectations for next year, due to trade escalations leading to slower economic growth and inflation. The Federal Reserve’s June interest rate decision remained unchanged, with a robust labor market, slightly high short-term inflation, and reduced economic uncertainty, while the dot plot indicates two rate cuts within the year. The Eurozone’s June manufacturing PMI was slightly below expectations, with not much difference.

Technical Analysis:

The euro experienced significant fluctuations in the night session, with a small cycle first declining and then rising, encountering resistance before falling back, showing a wide fluctuation structure, with pressure levels not significantly broken. In the short term, it may maintain a fluctuating correction approach, with opportunities for high short positions during the day and profit-taking on lows. Overall, the previous market saw a significant rise, and is now entering an adjustment phase, with daily fluctuations trending downward. The upper pressure area is around 1.1700-1.1720, while the lower support area is around 1.1520-1.1550.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating correction, attempt rebound high short opportunities, and take profits in a timely manner.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.