HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0731

Time	Data and Events	Importance
11:00	Japan’s central bank target interest rate as of July 31	★★★
14:30	Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda holds a monetary policy press conference	★★★
	Switzerland’s June actual retail sales year-on-year	★★★
14:45	France’s July CPI month-on-month preliminary value	★★★
15:55	Germany’s July seasonally adjusted unemployment figures	★★★
	Germany’s July seasonally adjusted unemployment rate	★★★
17:00	Eurozone’s June unemployment rate	★★★
19:30	U.S. July Challenger job cuts	★★★
20:00	Germany’s July CPI month-on-month preliminary value	★★★
20:30	Canada’s May GDP month-on-month	★★★
	U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending July 26	★★★★
	U.S. June core PCE price index year-on-year	★★★★
	U.S. June personal spending month-on-month	★★★
	U.S. second quarter labor cost index quarter-on-quarter	★★★
	U.S. June core PCE price index month-on-month	★★★
21:45	U.S. July Chicago PMI	★★★

Variety	Viewpoint	Support Range	Resistance Range
U.S. Dollar Index	Fluctuating rebound	98-98.5	100-101
Gold	Fluctuating weak	3220-3250	3300-3320
Crude Oil	Fluctuating strong	66-67	72-73
Euro	Fluctuating weak	1.1320-1.1350	1.1570-1.1600

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

At the end of July, the Federal Reserve meeting held steady for the fifth consecutive time, with a divergence among voting members. Inflation levels are slightly high, and the labor market is in a balanced state, which may pose downside risks. Economic growth has slowed in the first half of the year, and there is uncertainty about the outlook, with little change in the assessment of tariff impacts. In June, non-farm payrolls added 147,000 jobs, slightly above expectations, with an unemployment rate of 4.1%, lower than previous values and expectations, indicating a robust labor market. The June ISM manufacturing PMI saw a slight increase, and the June CPI year-on-year was 2.7%, with moderate inflation rising in line with expectations. Pay attention to the non-farm data on Friday.

Technical Analysis:

The U.S. Dollar Index has shown strong performance recently, with a significant rise on the daily chart and no signs of weakening. It is currently near a resistance level, and caution is advised for potential selling pressure. Attention should be paid to whether this structure can break through; if so, the market may strengthen further. Overall, after a significant decline in the previous market, the daily chart is consolidating, and signals of stabilization should be monitored. The upper resistance area is around 100-101, while the lower support area is around 98-98.5.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating rebound, with strong performance in the short cycle; watch for the ability to break through the resistance level.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East continue to escalate, with no signs of easing, while the situation in Eastern Europe remains unstable. The European Central Bank’s July interest rate decision maintained rates unchanged, with inflation meeting expectations, the economy showing resilience but facing downside risks, and trade conditions being unclear. At the end of July, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision also kept rates unchanged, with inflation slightly higher, a balanced labor market, and slowing economic growth, leading to uncertainty in the outlook. In June, the U.S. non-farm payrolls added 147,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate was 4.1%, both slightly better than expected; the June CPI year-on-year rate showed a slight increase, in line with expectations. Attention is on non-farm data.

Technical Analysis:

Gold prices fell sharply in the night session, closing with a large bearish candle on the daily chart, showing weak performance in the short term. There may be selling pressure above, while the price approaches the lower edge of the consolidation range. If there are short positions, consider reducing them to take profits on dips, as there may be a rebound in the smaller timeframe. Watch for resistance levels above and look for opportunities to short at higher levels. From a larger timeframe perspective, the daily chart shows high-level consolidation with prices fluctuating back and forth. Resistance is around 3300-3320, while support is around 3220-3250.

Viewpoint: Weak consolidation, with potential selling pressure above; watch for rebound short opportunities.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The July EIA monthly report slightly raised the oil price forecast for this year; the OPEC monthly report indicated a slight increase in June production, maintaining the global oil demand growth forecast for this year; the IEA monthly report slightly lowered the oil demand forecast for this and next year. At the beginning of July, the OPEC+ meeting agreed to increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, with expectations for another increase in September and discussions about pausing production increases starting in October. At the end of July, the OPEC ministerial meeting did not propose any policy recommendations. EIA crude oil inventories increased significantly, with recent data showing considerable volatility that may affect the supply-demand structure.

Technical Analysis:

U.S. crude oil continued to rise yesterday, closing with a bullish candle on the daily chart, showing strong performance in the short term with potential for further increases. The main strategy is to buy on dips, taking profits at higher levels. Overall, the crude oil support area is in a phase of consolidation, with the daily chart stabilizing, possibly resuming an upward trend. Resistance is around 72-73, while support is around 66-67.

Viewpoint: Strong consolidation, with prices breaking through the consolidation range; watch for buying opportunities on dips.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The European Central Bank’s July interest rate decision maintained rates unchanged, with the inflation outlook generally meeting expectations, though future uncertainty may exist due to unclear tariff policies and trade conditions. The Federal Reserve’s July interest rate decision also kept rates unchanged, with slightly higher inflation, a balanced labor market, and slowing economic growth, leading to uncertainty in the outlook. The preliminary manufacturing PMI values for the eurozone and major economies showed little change, generally in line with expectations. Attention is on non-farm data.

Technical Analysis:

The euro has recently shown weak performance, with consecutive bearish candles on the daily chart and no signs of stabilization in the short term. The price is approaching a support structure below; if there are short positions, consider reducing them to take profits on dips, with a short-term focus on shorting at higher levels. Overall, the larger upward structure remains unchanged, with a short-term correction underway. Resistance is around 1.1570-1.1600, while support is around 1.1320-1.1350.

Viewpoint: Weak consolidation, with short-term focus on rebound short opportunities and taking profits on dips.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.