HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0806

Time	Data and Events	Importance
04:30	U.S. API Crude Oil Inventory for the week ending August 1	★★★
17:00	Eurozone June Retail Sales MoM	★★★
22:00	U.S. Global Supply Chain Pressure Index for July	★★★
22:30	U.S. EIA Crude Oil Inventory for the week ending August 1	★★★★
	U.S. EIA Crude Oil Inventory at Cushing, Oklahoma for the week ending August 1	★★★
	U.S. EIA Strategic Petroleum Reserve Inventory for the week ending August 1	★★★
Next Day 01:00	U.S. 10-Year Treasury Auction – Winning Yield for the week ending August 6	★★★
	U.S. 10-Year Treasury Auction – Bid-to-Cover Ratio for the week ending August 6	★★★
Next Day 02:00	2025 FOMC Voting Member Collins speaks on the U.S. and global economy	★★★
	Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook speaks on the U.S. and global economy	★★★
Next Day 04:10	2027 FOMC Voting Member Daly speaks	★★★

Variety	Viewpoint	Support Range	Resistance Range
U.S. Dollar Index	Fluctuating rebound	98-98.5	100-101
Gold	Fluctuating rebound	3300-3320	3380-3400
Crude Oil	Short-term correction	65-66	72-73
Euro	Fluctuating weak	1.1380-1.1400	1.1580-1.1600

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

At the end of July, the Federal Reserve meeting maintained its stance for the fifth consecutive time, with divergences among voting members. Inflation levels are slightly high, the labor market is balanced, but there may be downside risks. Economic growth slowed in the first half of the year, and uncertainties remain regarding the outlook. The assessment of tariff impacts has not changed significantly. In July, non-farm payrolls added 73,000 jobs, below expectations, and the unemployment rate slightly rose to 4.2%, in line with expectations, indicating signs of a slowing labor market. June CPI year-on-year slightly warmed; June core PCE price index remained flat compared to the previous value; July ISM Manufacturing PMI slightly retreated.

Technical Analysis:

The U.S. Dollar Index continued to fluctuate slightly yesterday, with small cycles in a state of consolidation, intense competition between bulls and bears, with bulls slightly favored. There may be signs of stabilization in the short term, and the probability of an upward trend is high, but it remains to be seen whether the upper pressure level can be broken. Overall, after a significant decline in the previous period, the daily line shows a fluctuating rebound, focusing on stabilization signals. The upper pressure area is around 100-101, while the lower support area is around 98-98.5.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating rebound, bulls slightly favored, focus on whether the upper pressure level can be broken.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The situation in the Middle East and Eastern Europe is turbulent, with uncertainties in geopolitical conflicts. The European Central Bank’s July interest rate decision maintained rates, with inflation meeting expectations, the economy remaining resilient but facing downside risks, and trade conditions being unclear. At the end of July, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision also maintained rates, with inflation slightly high, a balanced labor market, and slowing economic growth, leading to uncertainties in the outlook. In July, the U.S. non-farm payrolls added 73,000 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.2%, indicating a slowdown in the labor market; the June CPI year-on-year slightly warmed up, in line with expectations.

Technical Analysis:

Gold prices have recently rebounded, with daily lines showing continuous slight increases and a small cycle of oscillating upward. Currently, it is still in a pressure zone, and short-term trading is intense, so caution is needed for potential selling pressure. If there are long positions, it is advisable to take profits at highs and pay attention to small cycle candlestick signals, as there may be a risk of weakening. From a larger cycle perspective, the daily line shows high-level oscillation, with prices fluctuating back and forth. The upper pressure level is around 3380-3400, while the lower support level is around 3300-3320.

Viewpoint: Oscillating rebound, take profits at highs for long positions, and pay attention to the effectiveness of pressure levels.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The July EIA monthly report slightly raised this year’s crude oil price expectations; the OPEC monthly report indicated a slight increase in June production, maintaining the global oil demand growth forecast for this year; the IEA monthly report slightly lowered the oil demand forecast for this year and next. At the end of July, the OPEC ministerial meeting did not propose policy recommendations. In early August, the OPEC+ meeting agreed to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in September, exiting the current round of production cuts a year early. EIA crude oil inventories have increased significantly, with this data fluctuating recently, which may affect the supply-demand structure. Pay attention to the EIA crude oil inventory report on Wednesday.

Technical Analysis:

U.S. crude oil has recently experienced continuous pullbacks, with a weak performance in the small cycle, currently in an important support area, showing signs of slowing down in the rate of decline. Short-term oscillation may occur, so pay attention to stabilization signals, and at that time, low long opportunities can be attempted. If it clearly breaks below this structure, the market will weaken. Overall, the crude oil support area is oscillating and adjusting, with prices continuously testing the support area, so pay attention to large-scale stabilization signals. The upper pressure area is around 72-73, while the lower support area is around 65-66.

Viewpoint: Short-term pullback, prices are testing the support area, pay attention to signals of stopping the decline and stabilizing.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The European Central Bank’s July interest rate decision maintained rates, with the inflation outlook generally meeting expectations, but future uncertainties may exist, with unclear tariff policies and trade conditions. The Eurozone economy remains resilient, but economic growth tends to have downside risks. At the end of July, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision also maintained rates, with inflation slightly high, a balanced labor market, and slowing economic growth, leading to uncertainties in the outlook. The manufacturing PMI preliminary values for the Eurozone and major economies showed little change, basically in line with expectations. U.S. July non-farm employment fell short of expectations, with a slight increase in the unemployment rate, indicating a slowdown in the labor market.

Technical Analysis:

The euro price continues to show a slight oscillating trend, with signs of weakness in the small cycle upward movement. Currently, the pressure level has not been significantly broken, and the market may encounter resistance and fall back, so caution is needed for the risk of weakening. During the day, attempts can be made for short positions at highs, taking profits at lows in a timely manner. Overall, the large-scale upward structure remains unchanged, but it has entered a short-term pullback. The upper pressure area is around 1.1580-1.1600, while the lower support area is around 1.1380-1.1400.

Viewpoint: Oscillating weakly, the small cycle rebound to the pressure area may encounter resistance.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.