HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0807

Time	Data and Events	Importance
To be determined	The United States begins implementing “reciprocal tariffs.”	★★★
14:00	Germany’s June seasonally adjusted industrial output month-on-month	★★★
	Germany’s June seasonally adjusted trade balance	★★★
	UK’s July Halifax seasonally adjusted house price index month-on-month	★★★
14:45	France’s June trade balance	★★★
15:00	Switzerland’s July seasonally adjusted unemployment rate	★★★
19:00	UK’s central bank interest rate decision as of August 7	★★★★
19:30	Bank of England Governor Bailey holds a monetary policy press conference	★★★
20:30	U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending August 2	★★★★
22:00	U.S. June wholesale sales month-on-month	★★★
	2027 FOMC voting member Bostic participates online in a fireside chat about monetary policy with the Florida CFO Association	★★★
22:30	U.S. EIA natural gas inventory for the week ending August 1	★★★
23:00	U.S. July New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations	★★★

Variety	Viewpoint	Support range	Resistance range
U.S. Dollar Index	Short-term adjustment	98-98.5	100-101
Gold	Fluctuating with a slight upward bias	3330-3350	3380-3400
Crude Oil	Short-term pullback	62-63	66-67
Euro	Fluctuating with a slight upward bias	1.1550-1.1580	1.1720-1.1750

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are speculative in nature, and are for reference and learning only. They do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operation is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

At the end of July, the Federal Reserve meeting saw a fifth consecutive hold, with dissent among voting members. Inflation levels are slightly high, the labor market is balanced, but there may be downside risks. Economic growth slowed in the first half of the year, and the outlook is uncertain, with little change in the assessment of tariff impacts. In July, non-farm payrolls added 73,000 jobs, below expectations, while the unemployment rate slightly rose to 4.2%, in line with expectations, indicating signs of a slowing labor market. June CPI year-on-year showed a slight increase; June core PCE price index remained flat compared to the previous value; July ISM manufacturing PMI slightly declined.

Technical Analysis:

The U.S. Dollar Index has continued its adjustment trend recently, closing with a large bearish candle yesterday. The short-term trend is oscillating downwards, currently in a support area, with intense competition between bulls and bears. The short-term may exhibit a fluctuating structure, focusing on whether a stabilization signal appears. Overall, prices are in a low-level fluctuation, testing the support area multiple times, with attention on stabilization signals. The upper resistance area is around 100-101, while the lower support area is around 98-98.5.

Viewpoint: Short-term adjustment may lean towards a fluctuating structure, focusing on stabilization signals.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are speculative in nature, and are for reference and learning only. They do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operation is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The situation in the Middle East and Eastern Europe is turbulent, with uncertainties in geopolitical conflicts. The European Central Bank’s July interest rate decision maintained rates, with inflation meeting expectations, the economy remaining resilient but facing downside risks, and trade conditions being unclear. At the end of July, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision also maintained rates, with inflation slightly high, a balanced labor market, and slowing economic growth, leading to uncertainties in the outlook. In July, the U.S. non-farm payrolls added 73,000 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.2%, indicating a slowing labor market; the June CPI year-on-year slightly warmed up, meeting expectations.

Technical Analysis:

Gold prices have recently been strong, with slight daily fluctuations upward, and the short cycle continues to test resistance areas without showing signs of weakening. Caution is advised for potential selling pressure, with short-term bullish sentiment prevailing. Attention should be paid to whether this structure can break through; if so, the market may continue to strengthen. From a larger cycle perspective, daily fluctuations at high levels show prices moving back and forth. The upper resistance level is around 3380-3400, while the lower support level is around 3330-3350.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating with a bullish bias; if there are long positions, take profits at highs and watch for the ability to break through resistance levels.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are speculative in nature, and are for reference and learning only. They do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operation is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The July EIA monthly report slightly raised this year’s crude oil price expectations; the OPEC monthly report indicated a slight increase in June production, maintaining the global oil demand growth forecast for this year; the IEA monthly report slightly lowered the oil demand forecast for this and next year. At the end of July, the OPEC ministerial meeting did not propose policy recommendations. In early August, the OPEC+ meeting agreed to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in September, exiting the current round of production cuts a year early. As of the week of August 1, EIA crude oil inventories significantly decreased, with this data showing considerable recent volatility, which may affect the supply-demand structure.

Technical Analysis:

U.S. crude oil futures slightly rose and then fell back, with the short cycle continuing a downward trend, showing signs of breaking previous support areas. Caution is advised for the risk of market weakening, with pressure above and support below, indicating a possible fluctuating structure in the short term, with no stabilization signals yet. Overall, the crude oil support area is in a fluctuating adjustment, with prices continuously testing the support area, and attention should be paid to signs of stabilization at a larger level. The upper small-level pressure area is around 66-67, while the lower support area is around 62-63.

Viewpoint: Short-term pullback, with pressure above and support below, indicating a possible fluctuating structure.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are speculative in nature, and are for reference and learning only. They do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operation is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The European Central Bank’s July interest rate decision maintained rates, with the inflation outlook generally meeting expectations, but future uncertainties exist due to unclear tariff policies and trade conditions. The Eurozone economy remains resilient, but economic growth tends to face downside risks. At the end of July, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision also maintained rates, with inflation slightly high, a balanced labor market, and slowing economic growth, leading to uncertainties in the outlook. The manufacturing PMI preliminary values for the Eurozone and major economies showed little change, generally meeting expectations. In July, U.S. non-farm employment fell short of expectations, with a slight increase in the unemployment rate, indicating a slowing labor market.

Technical Analysis:

The euro price surged significantly in night trading, with the short cycle continuing a rebound trend, showing strong short-term performance and possibly still having upward space. Short-term long opportunities can be attempted, with timely profit-taking, and attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the upper resistance level. Overall, the large-level upward structure remains unchanged, with a significant previous pullback and signs of stabilization appearing at the support structure. The upper pressure area is around 1.1720-1.1750, while the lower support area is around 1.1550-1.1580.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating with a bullish bias, possibly still having upward space, with attention to the effectiveness of the upper resistance level.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are speculative in nature, and are for reference and learning only. They do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operation is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.