HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0808

Time	Data and Events	Importance
To be determined	The ruling Liberal Democratic Party of Japan holds a general meeting.	★★★
To be determined	The United States hopes the Russia-Ukraine conflict will end before August 8.	★★★
07:50	The Bank of Japan publishes a summary of opinions from the July monetary policy meeting.	★★★
	Japan’s June trade balance.	★★★
13:30	France’s second-quarter ILO unemployment rate.	★★★
15:00	Switzerland’s July consumer confidence index.	★★★
20:30	Canada’s July employment numbers.	★★★
22:20	FOMC voting member Musalem speaks in 2025.	★★★

Variety	Viewpoint	Support range	Resistance range
US Dollar Index	Short-term adjustment	98-98.5	100-101
Gold	Fluctuating with a slight upward bias	3350-3360	3430-3450
Crude oil	Fluctuating with a slight downward bias	62-63	66-67
Euro	Fluctuating with a slight upward bias	1.1550-1.1580	1.1720-1.1750

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, and are for reference and learning purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

At the end of July, the Federal Reserve held its meeting, maintaining rates for the fifth consecutive time, with dissent among voting members. Inflation levels are slightly high, the labor market is balanced, but there may be downside risks. Economic growth slowed in the first half of the year, and there is uncertainty about the outlook. The assessment of tariff impacts has not changed significantly. In July, non-farm payrolls added 73,000 jobs, below expectations, and the unemployment rate slightly rose to 4.2%, in line with expectations, indicating signs of a slowing labor market. The June CPI year-on-year rate slightly warmed; the June core PCE price index remained flat compared to the previous value; the July ISM manufacturing PMI slightly declined.

Technical Analysis:

The US Dollar Index experienced slight fluctuations yesterday, closing with a small bearish candlestick. There are signs of slowing declines in the short term, currently in a support area, with intense competition between bulls and bears. The short-term outlook may be a fluctuating structure, focusing on whether there are signs of stabilization. Overall, prices are in a low-level fluctuation, testing the support area multiple times, with attention on stabilization signals. The upper resistance area is around 100-101, while the lower support area is around 98-98.5.

Viewpoint: Short-term adjustment may lean towards a fluctuating structure, focusing on signs of stabilization.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, and are for reference and learning purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The situation in the Middle East and Eastern Europe is turbulent, with uncertainties in geopolitical conflicts. The European Central Bank’s July interest rate decision maintained rates, with inflation meeting expectations, the economy remaining resilient but facing downside risks, and trade conditions being unclear. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision at the end of July also maintained rates, with slightly high inflation levels, a balanced labor market, and slowing economic growth, leading to uncertainties in the outlook. In July, the US non-farm payrolls added 73,000 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.2%, indicating a slowing labor market; the June CPI year-on-year rate slightly warmed, meeting expectations.

Technical Analysis:

Gold prices continued to rise yesterday, closing with a large bullish candlestick. The short-term trend is fluctuating upward, continuously testing the resistance area without showing signs of weakening. However, caution is advised as there may be selling pressure. In the short term, bulls are dominant, focusing on whether prices can break through the resistance level. In the long term, the daily chart shows high-level fluctuations, with prices moving back and forth. The upper resistance level is around 3430-3450, while the lower support level is around 3350-3360.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating slightly stronger, if there are long positions, take profits in time at highs, pay attention to whether the resistance level can be broken.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, and are for reference and learning purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

July EIA monthly report slightly raised this year’s crude oil price forecast; OPEC monthly report indicated a slight increase in June production, maintaining the global oil demand growth forecast for this year; IEA monthly report slightly lowered the oil demand forecast for this and next year. At the end of July, the OPEC ministerial meeting did not propose policy recommendations. At the beginning of August, the OPEC+ meeting agreed to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in September, exiting the current round of production cuts a year early. As of the week ending August 1, EIA crude oil inventories saw a significant decrease, with this data fluctuating greatly recently, which may affect the supply-demand structure.

Technical Analysis:

US crude oil fell slightly yesterday, with the daily line continuing to close in the red, showing weak performance recently. The current support area may show signs of breaking down, and intraday high short opportunities can be monitored for timely profits at lows. Overall, the crude oil support area is fluctuating and adjusting, with prices continuously testing the support area, and no significant stabilization signals have appeared yet. The small-level resistance area is around 66-67, while the support area is around 62-63.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating slightly weaker, short opportunities can be attempted for timely profits.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, and are for reference and learning purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The European Central Bank’s July interest rate decision maintained rates unchanged, with the inflation outlook generally meeting expectations, but future uncertainties exist due to unclear tariff policies and trade situations. The Eurozone economy remains resilient, with economic growth leaning towards downside risks. At the end of July, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision also maintained rates unchanged, with inflation levels slightly high, a balanced labor market, and slowing economic growth, leading to uncertainties in the outlook. The preliminary values of the manufacturing PMI in the Eurozone and major economies showed little change, generally meeting expectations. The US non-farm payrolls in July fell short of expectations, with a slight increase in the unemployment rate and a slowing labor market.

Technical Analysis:

The euro price showed a slightly fluctuating structure yesterday, with a small cycle rising and then falling back. The upper pressure level is approaching, which may lead to selling pressure, so caution is needed regarding the risk of market pullback. If there are long positions, take profits in time at highs, and short-term fluctuations may continue, paying attention to the effectiveness of the resistance level. Overall, the large-level upward structure remains unchanged, with a significant pullback earlier, and signs of stabilization appearing at the support structure. The upper pressure area is around 1.1720-1.1750, while the support area is around 1.1550-1.1580.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating slightly stronger, with the upper pressure level approaching, caution is needed regarding potential selling pressure.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, and are for reference and learning purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.