HTFX Commentary 0903

 

 

HTFX Investment Research Team

 

Time	Data and Events	Importance
14:30	Swiss CPI MoM for August	★★★
21:45	US August Markit Manufacturing PMI Final	★★★
22:00	US August ISM Manufacturing PMI	★★★★
	US July Construction Spending MoM	★★★

 

Variety	Viewpoint	Support Range	Resistance Range
US Dollar Index	Oscillating rebound	100-101	104-104.5
Gold	High-level oscillation	2400-2420	2530-2550
Crude Oil	Range oscillation	70-72	79-80
Euro	Short-term correction	1.0900-1.0950	1.1200-1.1250

*Pre-market viewpoint, subject to timeliness and limitations, belongs to anticipation, for reference and learning only, does not constitute investment advice, trade at your own risk. Investing is risky, so trading should be approached with caution.

 

Fundamental analysis:

At the end of July, the Federal Reserve meeting maintained interest rates unchanged. Inflation has made further progress but remains high. There are signs of economic weakness but not severe. Job growth has slowed down. The possibility of future rate cuts was discussed in this meeting. The annualized GDP rate for the second quarter in the United States was better than expected and the previous value. Retail data in July showed a slight increase, higher than expected and previous values. CPI data in July showed a slight decline, indicating moderate inflation decrease. The core PCE price index for July remained the same as the previous value, slightly lower than the expected value. Attention is focused on the ISM Manufacturing PMI on Tuesday and non-farm employment data on Friday.

Technical analysis:

The daily chart of the US dollar index shows slight fluctuations with no significant volatility. There are currently no signs of weakening, and there may still be upward potential in the short term. Opportunities for short-term buying on pullbacks can be explored. Overall, the market is in a wide range of oscillations and is currently close to major support structures. It is important to observe whether there will be signs of consolidation and stabilization. The resistance area above is around 104-104.5, and the support area below is around 100-101.

Viewpoint: There may still be room for a rebound in the oscillation. Opportunities for short-term buying on pullbacks can be explored.

*Pre-market viewpoint, subject to timeliness and limitations, belongs to anticipation, for reference and learning only, does not constitute investment advice, trade at your own risk. Investing is risky, so trading should be approached with caution.

 

Fundamental analysis:

The Middle East geopolitical conflict has spilled over, and the situation in Eastern Europe is turbulent, creating uncertainty. In July, the European Central Bank maintained the three major interest rates unchanged, with stable inflation and economic growth facing downward pressure. At the end of July, the Federal Reserve meeting maintained interest rates unchanged and discussed the possibility of future rate cuts, with an overall dovish tone. CPI data in the United States for July showed a moderate decrease, lower than the expected value and previous value. Manufacturing PMI in the Eurozone, Germany, and France showed a slight decline in August. Attention is focused on the US non-farm data this Friday.

Technical analysis:

The gold price is expected to maintain a short-term volatile trend, with possible selling pressure on the upside. It is currently in a small support area, and if it falls below, the market may further decline, presenting a short-selling opportunity. In the long term, the price is oscillating at a high level, with a significant increase in the previous period and an overall overvaluation. There is no major signal of a weakening trend yet. The resistance level is around 2530-2550, and the small support level is around 2460-2480, with an important support level around 2400-2420.

Viewpoint: Be cautious of the risk of market correction at high levels and consider short-selling opportunities.

*Pre-market viewpoint, subject to timeliness and limitations, belongs to anticipation, for reference and learning only, does not constitute investment advice, trade at your own risk. Investing is risky, so trading should be approached with caution.

 

Fundamental analysis:

In the August EIA monthly report, the global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 was slightly lowered, while the oil demand forecast for 2024 was maintained. The oil price forecast for 2024-2025 was slightly lowered. In the OPEC monthly report, the global oil demand forecast for 2024-2025 was slightly lowered, while the global economic growth forecast for 2024-2025 was maintained. The IEA monthly report maintained the global oil demand growth forecast for 2024. In early August, the OPEC+ ministerial meeting focused on production compensation issues and did not discuss production policies for the fourth quarter. Pay attention to this Thursday’s EIA inventory data and Saudi Aramco’s crude oil prices.

Technical analysis:

WTI crude oil rebounded slightly yesterday, with short-term oscillations on the upside. However, there is also selling pressure on the upside, and the price may be oscillating within a range. Based on the resistance and support structure, both selling at high levels and buying at low levels can be profitable. Overall, crude oil prices are oscillating within a wide range, and attention should be paid to the support and resistance areas, as well as the direction of future breakthroughs. The resistance area on the upside is around 79-80, and the important support area on the downside is around 70-72.

Viewpoint: Range-bound oscillation, sell at high levels and buy at low levels, and pay attention to the direction of future breakthroughs.

*Pre-market viewpoint, subject to timeliness and limitations, belongs to anticipation, for reference and learning only, does not constitute investment advice, trade at your own risk. Investing is risky, so trading should be approached with caution.

 

Fundamental analysis:

In the July interest rate decision of the European Central Bank, the three major rates remained unchanged. Inflation remained stable, economic growth slowed down and faced downward risks, and the labor market remained flexible. The ECB maintained an open attitude towards interest rate cuts in September. At the end of July, the Federal Reserve meeting kept interest rates unchanged. Inflation made progress, while job growth slowed down. The meeting discussed the possibility of future interest rate cuts. The manufacturing PMI values of the eurozone, Germany, France, and other major economies showed a slight decline, lower than previous and expected values. Attention is focused on the eurozone’s Q2 GDP annual rate and US non-farm employment data.

Technical analysis:

The euro price rebounded slightly in the night session, with moderate strength. There may be selling pressure above, and there is a higher probability of continued short-term correction. It is advisable to consider short-selling opportunities and take profits in a timely manner. Overall, the daily chart shows a strong oscillation without signs of weakening. Pay attention to opportunities for long positions on pullbacks. The important resistance area above is around 1.1200-1.1250, and the support area below is around 1.0900-1.0950.

Viewpoint: In the short term, there may be opportunities for short-selling during the correction, and profits should be taken in a timely manner.

*Pre-market viewpoint, subject to timeliness and limitations, belongs to anticipation, for reference and learning only, does not constitute investment advice, trade at your own risk. Investing is risky, so trading should be approached with caution.

 

Disclaimer

This report is produced based on the principles of independence, objectivity, fairness, and prudence. The views and strategies in the report follow the principle of “win-win cooperation and mutual benefit”. The author strives to provide objective and fair descriptions of the investment products mentioned in the report. However, the views, conclusions, and recommendations related to the investment products are for reference only and do not represent the author’s guiding purchase recommendations for any investment products. The content and data information mentioned in the report are objective and true, but there is no guarantee that they will not change in actual use. This report is for reference only, and the author does not guarantee any form of investment behavior or investment results. Anyone who refers to this report for investment behavior should bear the corresponding risks of investment results on their own.

This report is copyrighted by our company. Without written permission, no organization or individual may reproduce, copy, or publish it in any form. If cited, the source must be attributed to our company, and the report must not be quoted, abridged, or modified in a manner contrary to its original intent. When publishing or forwarding the investment views and strategies in this report, the publisher and publication date of this report should be indicated, and the risks of using this report should be highlighted. Unauthorized publication or forwarding of this report will result in our company reserving the right to pursue legal liability.