HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0123

Time	Data and Events	Importance
19:00	UK January CBI Industrial Orders Balance	★★★
21:30	Canada November Retail Sales MoM	★★★
	U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending January 18	★★★★
23:00	Eurozone January Consumer Confidence Index Preliminary	★★★
23:30	U.S. EIA Natural Gas Inventories for the week ending January 17	★★★
Next Day 01:00	U.S. EIA Crude Oil Inventories for the week ending January 17	★★★★
	U.S. EIA Cushing, Oklahoma Crude Oil Inventories for the week ending January 17	★★★
	U.S. EIA Strategic Petroleum Reserve Inventories for the week ending January 17	★★★

Varieties	Views	Support Range	Resistance Range
U.S. Dollar Index	Short-term Adjustment	107.5-108	110-111
Gold	Fluctuating with a tendency to strengthen	2700-2720	2800-2850
Crude Oil	Short-term Pullback	68-70	79-80
Euro	Short-term Rebound	0.9900-1.0000	1.0400-1.0450

*The pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, represent forecasting only, for reference and learning purposes only, and do not constitute investment advice. Investment carries risks, and trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

In December, the Federal Reserve meeting once again lowered rates by 25 basis points. The labor market remains robust, and overall economic performance is strong, delaying the inflation target until 2027. Rate cut expectations are slowing, with a cautious monetary policy. The dot plot indicates two rate cuts next year. The December non-farm payroll data showed a significant increase in new jobs, exceeding expectations, with the unemployment rate slightly dropping to 4.1%, indicating strong labor market performance. The core PCE price index for November was flat compared to the previous value; the ISM Manufacturing PMI for December showed a slight increase; the December CPI rose slightly, generally in line with expectations.

Technical Analysis:

The U.S. Dollar Index is showing slight fluctuations during the day, with fierce competition in the short cycles. There may be selling pressure above, currently at a minor support level, with no signs of stabilization yet. In the short term, it is likely to show fluctuations. If the structure is broken, the market may further pull back. Overall, it is a larger-scale fluctuation leaning towards strength, but the short-term is entering adjustment. Key resistance areas are near 110-111, while support areas are near 107.5-108.

Viewpoint: Short-term adjustment, pay attention to the effectiveness of support levels. If the structure breaks, the market may further pull back.

*The pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, represent forecasting only, for reference and learning purposes only, and do not constitute investment advice. Investment carries risks, and trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The worsening geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, along with unrest in Eastern Europe and the Korean Peninsula. The European Central Bank’s December interest rate decision was a third consecutive 25 basis point cut, with progress against inflation making strides and the economic recovery slower than expected. The Federal Reserve’s December interest rate decision, lowering rates by 25 basis points, met expectations, with a robust labor market and strong overall economic performance, leading to a slowdown in rate cuts. The U.S. December non-farm payroll data performed well, with a significant increase in employment and a slight drop in the unemployment rate; the U.S. December CPI showed moderate increases.

Technical Analysis:

The price of gold continued to rise yesterday, with a small cycle showing fluctuations upward. The price is approaching previous high pressure, and it is advisable to reduce positions on the way up. There are no signs of weakening yet, and the short-term strategy remains focused on buying on dips, taking profits when prices rise. From a long-term perspective, the upward structure is intact, currently in a high-level fluctuation, and attention is on whether the price can reach new highs. The upper pressure level is around 2800-2850, while the lower support level is around 2700-2720.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating with a strong bias, the main strategy is short-term buying, reducing positions to take profits on the way up.

*The pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, represent forecasting only, for reference and learning purposes only, and do not constitute investment advice. Investment carries risks, and trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The January EIA monthly report slightly raised the oil price forecast for 2025; the OPEC monthly report maintained its global oil demand growth expectations for 2025 and slightly raised global economic growth expectations for 2025-2026; the IEA monthly report slightly lowered the global oil demand growth expectations for 2025. At the beginning of December, the OPEC+ meeting extended voluntary production cuts until March next year, while the plan to increase production was postponed until April next year, and all production cuts and compensatory cuts were extended until the end of 2026. Attention is on the EIA oil inventory report due early Friday.

Technical Analysis:

US crude oil slightly rose and then fell yesterday, with the daily line continuing to close with a bearish candle, indicating some selling pressure on the upper side. The small cycle shows signs of weakening, with space remaining before reaching the support level below. In the short term, it may be worth trying short positions, with timely profit-taking. Overall, oil prices are showing a strong trend with signs of stabilization on a larger scale, and a short-term correction appears to be underway. The critical pressure area above is around 79-80, while the support area below is around 69-70.

Viewpoint: Short-term correction, consider trying short positions with timely profit-taking.

*The pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, represent forecasting only, for reference and learning purposes only, and do not constitute investment advice. Investment carries risks, and trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The European Central Bank’s December interest rate decision saw a third consecutive 25 basis point cut, removing the language that maintained a “restrictive” rate. Anti-inflation progress is proceeding smoothly, though economic recovery is slower than expected, with plans to stop the bond-buying program by the end of 2024. The December Federal Reserve interest rate decision to cut by 25 basis points was in line with expectations, supported by a robust labor market and strong overall economic performance, with expectations for rate cuts gradually slowing. Strong U.S. non-farm payroll data in December showed a significant increase in employment figures and a slight decline in the unemployment rate, while the December CPI saw moderate increases. Attention is on the manufacturing PMI values of the Eurozone and major economies.

Technical Analysis:

The euro price slightly rose and then fell during the night session, showing a small cycle of fluctuating trends. It is currently within a recent pressure structure, with intense battles between bulls and bears. In the short term, it may trend sideways, with attention on whether the price can break through this structure, which could lead to a stronger trend. Overall, the daily line is trending downward, showing weaker performance on a larger scale, with a short-term rebound indicating the possibility. The upper pressure area is around 1.0400-1.0450, while the support area below is around 0.9900-1.0000.

Viewpoint: Short-term rebound, pay attention to whether the pressure level can be broken; otherwise, the market may fluctuate back and forth.

*The pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, represent forecasting only, for reference and learning purposes only, and do not constitute investment advice. Investment carries risks, and trading requires caution.