HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0228

Time	Data and Events	Importance
To be determined	Ukrainian President Zelensky visits Washington, where he will sign an agreement on rare earth minerals and other topics	★★★
15:00	UK February Nationwide House Price Index MoM	★★★
15:30	Switzerland January Actual Retail Sales YoY	★★★
15:45	France February CPI MoM Final	★★★
	France Q4 GDP YoY Final	★★★
16:00	Switzerland February KOF Economic Leading Indicator	★★★
16:55	Germany February Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Change	★★★
	Germany February Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate	★★★
21:00	Germany February CPI MoM Final	★★★
21:30	Canada December GDP MoM	★★★
	US January Core PCE Price Index YoY	★★★★
	US January Personal Spending MoM	★★★
	US January Core PCE Price Index MoM	★★★
22:00	US President Trump gives a media interview	★★★
22:45	US February Chicago PMI	★★★

Variety	Viewpoints	Support Range	Resistance Range
US Dollar Index	Mildly Weak Fluctuations	105.5-106	108.5-109
Gold	Short-term Retracement	2850-2870	2980-3000
Crude Oil	Mildly Weak Fluctuations	66-67	72-73
Euro	Short-term Adjustment	1.0180-1.0200	1.0500-1.0550

* Pre-market viewpoints, time-sensitive and limited in scope, are merely predictions, for reference and study only, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks, trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

At the end of January, the Federal Reserve meeting maintained interest rates unchanged, the labor market remained strong, economic activity expanded steadily, and inflation levels were still slightly high. Expectations for monetary policy easing have cooled, and attentions will be on the new government policies. January non-farm data showed the number of new jobs fell to 143,000, below expectations, while the unemployment rate slightly decreased to 4.0%, indicating a robust labor market. January unadjusted CPI YoY recorded at 3.0%, slightly higher than previous and expected values. The ISM Manufacturing PMI for January showed a slight increase. Pay attention to the US Core PCE Price Index on Friday.

Technical Analysis:

The US Dollar Index rebounded sharply yesterday, with small cycles showing upward fluctuations, but there may be selling pressure above, so it is not advisable to be overly bullish. Pay attention to the resistance areas above, where if signs of weakness occur, a short position can be attempted. Overall, after high fluctuations on the daily chart, there are signs of weakening, and a mild downward adjustment may continue in the short term. The small-level resistance area is near 108.5-109, while the support area below is near 105.5-106.

Viewpoint: Mildly weak fluctuations, short-term rebound, and pay attention to the resistance area above.

* Pre-market viewpoints, time-sensitive and limited in scope, are merely predictions, for reference and study only, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks, trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East continue to escalate, while the situation in Eastern Europe remains unstable and uncertain. In late January, the European Central Bank decided to cut interest rates by 25 basis points for the fourth consecutive time, with inflation generally in line with expectations, although the economy still faces pressure due to weak performance. In late January, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, reporting good economic activity, but inflation levels remain high, leading to some alleviation of rate cut expectations. The U.S. non-farm payroll data for January was average, with new job numbers decreasing and below expectations, while the unemployment rate slightly fell and was slightly better than expected; the January CPI year-on-year rate showed a slight increase, slightly above expectations.

Technical Analysis:

Gold prices continued to decline yesterday, showing weak performance in the short term, with possible selling pressure above. It is currently at a small support level, and if it breaks this structure, the market may further correct. In the short term, one can try to seize short-selling opportunities on rebounds and realize profits in a timely manner. From a larger perspective, the upward structure is intact, with the daily chart showing a trend of oscillating upwards, and prices reaching new highs repeatedly. The upper resistance is likely around 2980-3000, while the small support level below is around 2850-2870.

Viewpoint: Short-term correction with possible oscillating market, focus on the effectiveness of the support structure.

* Pre-market viewpoints, time-sensitive and limited in scope, are merely predictions, for reference and study only, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks, trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The February EIA monthly report maintains its global oil demand growth forecast for this year and the next, with slight adjustments to oil prices for 2025; the OPEC monthly report maintains its global oil demand growth forecast for this year and the next; the IEA monthly report slightly raises the global oil demand growth forecast for 2025. At the beginning of February, the OPEC+ meeting agreed to adhere to the previous oil production agreement, with the committee consenting to gradually increase oil output starting from April 1, in line with previous plans. EIA reported a decrease in crude oil inventory, below expectations, which may affect the supply-demand structure.

Technical Analysis:

U.S. crude oil showed a significant rebound last night, currently in a pressure zone without a clear breakthrough, with possible selling pressure above. In the short term, one can try to take short-selling opportunities in conjunction with candlestick signals as prices are at relatively low levels, ensuring timely profits. Overall, oil prices appear to be strong with signs of stabilization at a larger level, but are entering a short-term correction. The upper pressure zone is around 72-73, while the lower support area is around 66-67.

Viewpoint: Oscillating with a weak tendency, with short-term rebounds to focus on the upper pressure level.

* Pre-market viewpoints, time-sensitive and limited in scope, are merely predictions, for reference and study only, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks, trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The European Central Bank’s decision at the end of January to cut interest rates by 25 basis points for the fourth consecutive time is in line with inflation expectations, with a goal to return to the medium-term target this year, although the economy still faces challenges and may continue to be weak in the short term. In late January, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, with overall economic performance being strong and easing expectations slightly lowered. The U.S. non-farm payroll data for January was average, with new employment numbers decreasing, while the unemployment rate slightly declined and was slightly better than expected; the January CPI year-on-year showed a slight increase. The manufacturing PMI in the Eurozone showed little change.

Technical Analysis:

The euro price fell significantly during the overnight session, with the short-term cycle attempting multiple times to break through pressure levels but failing to do so. The market has entered a correction phase, but the distance to the support structure below is relatively close, suggesting a possibly oscillating trend, with attention on future breakout directions. Overall, prices are at relatively low levels with a daily oscillating structure, likely signaling large-scale stabilization. The small pressure area above is around 1.0500-1.0550, while the support area below is around 1.0180-1.0200.

Viewpoint: Short-term adjustment with pressure above and support below, suggesting a possibly oscillating market.

* Pre-market viewpoints, time-sensitive and limited in scope, are merely predictions, for reference and study only, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks, trading requires caution.