HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0421

Time	Data and Events	Importance
To be determined	The World Bank and IMF Spring Meetings will be held in 2025.	★★★
20:30	2025 FOMC voting member Goolsbee will be interviewed by CNBC.	★★★
22:00	U.S. March Conference Board Leading Economic Index month-on-month	★★★

Variety	Viewpoint	Support Range	Resistance Range
U.S. Dollar Index	Weak oscillation	96-97	100-101
Gold	Strong oscillation	3280-3300	3380-3400
Crude Oil	Short-term rebound	56-57	65-66
Euro	Strong oscillation	1.1300-1.1350	1.1600-1.1650

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictive in nature, and are for reference and learning only. They do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

In the March Federal Reserve meeting, interest rates were kept unchanged, the labor market remained solid, inflation expectations for this year and next were raised, and GDP growth expectations for the next three years were lowered. Starting in April, the pace of balance sheet reduction will slow, and there is uncertainty regarding tariff policies. In March, non-farm payroll data showed an increase of 228,000 jobs, far exceeding expectations, while the unemployment rate slightly rose, indicating a strong labor market. Tariff policies increase market risks and uncertainties. The year-on-year CPI for March slightly decreased, raising expectations for future interest rate cuts.

Technical Analysis:

The U.S. Dollar Index performed weakly last week, with daily oscillations trending downward. The early session continued the downward trend, and the short cycle continued to create new lows without signs of a bottoming out. In the short term, it may continue to oscillate weakly. Overall, prices have retreated from high levels, breaking through important support areas, and there are no signs of stabilization. The upper resistance area is around 100-101, while the lower support area is around 96-97.

Viewpoint: Weak oscillation, daily oscillations trending downward, and the short cycle continues to create new lows.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictive in nature, and are for reference and learning only. They do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East are escalating, and there is uncertainty in the Eastern European situation. The European Central Bank’s April interest rate decision saw a continuous sixth rate cut of 25 basis points, with inflation declining smoothly and economic resilience somewhat strengthening. The March Federal Reserve interest rate decision maintained rates, with a solid labor market, lowered GDP growth expectations, and plans to slow the pace of balance sheet reduction. The U.S. March non-farm payroll data showed a significant increase in jobs, with a slight rise in the unemployment rate; the March year-on-year CPI slightly decreased, raising expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. U.S. tariff policies may stimulate gold’s safe-haven attributes.

Technical Analysis:

Gold prices have recently continued to rise, with the short cycle creating new historical highs and no signs of weakening. Long positions should reduce holdings at high points, and in the short term, it is not advisable to chase prices; the main strategy should be to buy on dips. From a long-term perspective, the upward structure is maintained, with significant daily increases and new highs, showing no signs of weakening. The upper resistance level may be around 3380-3400, while the lower support level may be around 3280-3300.

Viewpoint: Strong oscillation, buy on dips, and reduce holdings at high points.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictive in nature, and are for reference and learning only. They do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The April EIA monthly report basically maintains the crude oil production for this year and next, with a slight downward adjustment to global crude oil demand for this year and next; the OPEC monthly report slightly lowers the global economic growth forecast for this year and next, and adjusts down the global crude oil demand growth forecast for this year and next; the IEA monthly report lowers the global oil demand growth forecast for 2025. At the beginning of April, the OPEC+ ministerial meeting maintained the oil production policy unchanged and agreed to exceed expectations for increased production in May. There is uncertainty in U.S. tariff policies, which may affect the demand side. EIA crude oil inventories have slightly increased, and the supply-demand structure is relatively loose.

Technical Analysis:

U.S. crude oil has recently shown a rebound trend, with a strong short-term performance and possibly still some upward space. It is advisable to try short-term long opportunities and take profits in a timely manner, paying attention to the resistance area above, where the market may encounter obstacles. Overall, crude oil has recently performed relatively weakly, with prices significantly oversold and no signs of a major stabilization yet. The resistance area above is around 65-66, while the support area below is around 56-57.

Viewpoint: Short-term rebound, attempt to take low long opportunities on pullbacks, and take profits in a timely manner.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictive in nature, and are for reference and learning only. They do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The European Central Bank’s April interest rate decision saw a continuous sixth rate cut of 25 basis points, with inflation declining smoothly and economic resilience somewhat enhanced. The bank relies on data, evaluates successively, and dynamically adjusts its monetary policy stance, paying attention to trade situations. The Federal Reserve’s March interest rate decision maintained the status quo, raised inflation expectations, and lowered GDP growth expectations, indicating a slowdown in the balance sheet reduction pace. In March, U.S. non-farm payroll data showed employment numbers significantly exceeded expectations, while the unemployment rate slightly increased; the March CPI year-on-year slightly decreased. In the Eurozone and economies like France and Germany, the manufacturing PMI values were slightly better than previous and expected values.

Technical Analysis:

The euro has recently shown strong performance, continuing to break upward after a short-term oscillation adjustment, with no signs of weakening. In the short term, it may maintain a strong trend and still have some upward space, with a strategy of buying on dips and reducing holdings on highs. Overall, the long-term upward structure remains intact, with no signs of weakening. The resistance area above is around 1.1600-1.1650, while the support area below is around 1.1300-1.1350.

Viewpoint: Oscillating with a strong bias, breaking upward after a short-term horizontal consolidation, with a strategy of buying on dips and reducing holdings on highs.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictive in nature, and are for reference and learning only. They do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.