HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0704

Time	Data and Events	Importance
14:45	France May Industrial Production Month-on-Month	★★★
15:00	Switzerland June Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate	★★★
17:00	Eurozone May PPI Month-on-Month	★★★

Variety	Viewpoint	Support Range	Resistance Range
US Dollar Index	Weak Fluctuation	96-97	99.5-100
Gold	Short-term Fluctuation	3220-3250	3350-3380
Crude Oil	Strong Fluctuation	64-65	79-80
Euro	Strong Fluctuation	1.1680-1.1700	1.1830-1.1850

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, belong to predictions, are for reference and learning only, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

In June, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates for the fourth consecutive time, with the dot plot indicating two rate cuts within the year. Inflation levels are slightly high, and uncertainty in the economic outlook has somewhat diminished, with the unemployment rate at a low level and a stable labor market. In June, non-farm payrolls added 147,000 jobs, slightly above expectations, with an unemployment rate of 4.1%, lower than previous values and expectations, indicating a robust labor market. The unadjusted CPI year-on-year for May slightly increased but was below expectations; the core PCE price index for May slightly rebounded; and the ISM manufacturing PMI for May showed a slight rebound.

Technical Analysis:

The US Dollar Index saw a slight rebound in the overnight market, with the daily line closing with a bullish candle. The short cycle experienced a rise followed by a fall, with selling pressure above. Recently, prices have not significantly set new lows, showing signs of slowing down in the decline. In the short term, it may be slightly fluctuating or experience a minor rebound. Overall, it presents a large-scale weak fluctuation structure, with a slowing decline and no signs of stabilization. The upper pressure area is around 99.5-100, while the lower support area is around 96-97.

Viewpoint: Weak fluctuation, slowing decline, possible minor cycle fluctuation or rebound.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, belong to predictions, are for reference and learning only, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is escalating, with conflicts between Israel and Iran, and instability in Eastern Europe. The European Central Bank’s June interest rate decision saw a continuous seventh rate cut of 25 basis points, nearing the end of the rate-cutting cycle, with downward adjustments to inflation expectations for this year and next, as well as GDP growth expectations for next year. The Federal Reserve’s June interest rate decision maintained rates, with slightly high inflation levels and a stable labor market, indicating two rate cuts within the year according to the dot plot. In June, the US non-farm payrolls added 147,000 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.1%, both slightly better than expected; the unadjusted CPI year-on-year for May showed slight warming.

Technical Analysis:

Gold prices saw a slight decline in the overnight market, with the short cycle encountering resistance and falling back, facing selling pressure above. In the short term, it may continue to test resistance levels, and attention should be paid to whether this structure can break through; otherwise, there is a risk of a potential weakening of the market. From a larger cycle perspective, the daily line shows high-level fluctuations, with prices moving back and forth. The upper minor resistance level is around 3350-3380, while the lower support level is around 3220-3250.

Viewpoint: Short-term fluctuation, possible upward test of resistance levels, attention should be paid to whether prices can break upward.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, belong to predictions, are for reference and learning only, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

In the June EIA monthly report, crude oil prices for this year and next were slightly revised upward; the OPEC monthly report maintained the global oil demand growth expectations for this year and next, as well as the economic growth expectations for this year and next; the IEA monthly report slightly lowered the oil demand expectations for this year and next. At the end of May, the OPEC+ ministerial meeting agreed to set the 2025 oil production level as the benchmark for 2027, with another round of negotiations scheduled for early June, potentially reaching an agreement to accelerate oil production increases in July. On Wednesday, EIA crude oil inventories saw a significant increase, with data showing considerable volatility, which may affect the supply-demand structure.

Technical Analysis:

US crude oil experienced slight fluctuations yesterday, with signs of resistance during the night session, indicating potential selling pressure above. In the short term, it may retest the support area, at which point attention should be paid to stabilization signals and attempts to take long positions, while taking profits at highs. Overall, crude oil has undergone a significant correction previously, and a retest of important structures may show stabilization signals. The pressure area above is around 79-80, while the support area below is around 64-65.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating with a slight upward bias, stabilization signs are appearing in the support structure, and attention should be paid to opportunities for low long positions on pullbacks.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, belong to predictions, are for reference and learning only, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The European Central Bank’s June interest rate decision saw a continuous seventh rate cut of 25 basis points, nearing the end of the rate-cutting cycle, with no discussion on neutral interest rates. The inflation expectations for this year and next were lowered, and the GDP growth rate expectation for next year was also reduced, as trade upgrades led to slower economic growth and inflation. In June, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision remained unchanged, with a robust labor market, slightly elevated short-term inflation, and reduced economic uncertainty, with the dot plot indicating two rate cuts within the year. The Eurozone’s June manufacturing PMI slightly missed expectations, with not much difference.

Technical Analysis:

The euro price slightly retreated during the night session, showing a small cycle of fluctuating structure, with the support area not being broken. In the short term, the outlook remains slightly strong, but caution is advised regarding potential selling pressure above. If there are long positions, profits should be taken at highs, while also monitoring whether the price can reach new highs. Overall, the daily chart shows an upward fluctuation, with a strong structure on a larger scale. The pressure area above is around 1.1830-1.1850, while the small-level support area below is around 1.1680-1.1700.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating with a slight upward bias, the price is approaching the pressure area, and the strategy is to take profits on long positions at highs.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, belong to predictions, are for reference and learning only, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.