HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0116

Time	Data and Events	Importance
08:30	Australia December seasonally adjusted unemployment rate	★★★
15:00	Germany December CPI month-on-month final value	★★★
	UK November three-month GDP month-on-month	★★★
	UK November manufacturing output month-on-month	★★★
	UK November seasonally adjusted goods trade balance	★★★
	UK November industrial output month-on-month	★★★
18:00	Eurozone November seasonally adjusted trade balance	★★★
20:30	European Central Bank releases December monetary policy meeting minutes	★★★
21:30	US initial jobless claims for the week ending January 11	★★★★
	US December retail sales month-on-month	★★★★
	US January Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index	★★★
	US December import price index month-on-month	★★★
23:00	US January NAHB housing market index	★★★
	US November business inventories month-on-month	★★★
23:30	US EIA natural gas inventory for the week ending January 10	★★★

Variety	Viewpoint	Support range	Resistance range
US Dollar Index	Fluctuating with a slight upward bias	107.5-108	110-111
Gold	Fluctuating with a slight upward bias	2620-2630	2720-2730
Crude oil	Fluctuating with a slight upward bias	68-70	78-80
Euro	Fluctuating with a slight downward bias	0.9900-1.0000	1.0350-1.0400

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

In December, the Federal Reserve meeting again cut rates by 25 basis points, the labor market remains robust, and the overall economic performance is strong, postponing the inflation target to 2027, with expectations of a slowdown in rate cuts and a cautious approach to monetary policy. The dot plot indicates two rate cuts next year. The December non-farm payroll data showed a significant increase in new jobs, exceeding expectations, with the unemployment rate slightly falling to 4.1%, indicating a strong labor market. The November core PCE price index remained flat compared to the previous value; the December ISM manufacturing PMI slightly increased; the December CPI rose slightly, generally in line with expectations.

Technical Analysis:

The US Dollar Index continued a slight pullback yesterday, rebounding during the night session, showing a short-term fluctuating trend, but the upward structure has not changed. Attention should be paid to signs of stabilization in the small cycle, at which point the market may resume its upward trend and retest the upper resistance structure. Overall, the large-scale trend is fluctuating with a slight upward bias, and the daily line is moving upward without showing signs of weakening. The important resistance area is around 110-111, while the small support area is around 107.5-108.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating with a slight upward bias, with a strategy of buying on dips and reducing holdings on highs during small cycle pullbacks.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The worsening geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, along with instability in Eastern Europe and the Korean Peninsula. The ECB’s December interest rate decision involved a third consecutive 25 basis point cut, with progress against inflation proceeding smoothly, although economic recovery is slower than expected. The December Federal Reserve interest rate decision, which cut rates by 25 basis points, was in line with expectations, with a robust labor market and strong overall economic performance, leading to expectations of a slowdown in rate cuts. The US December non-farm data performed well, with a significant increase in employment and a slight decrease in the unemployment rate; the US December CPI rose moderately.

Technical Analysis:

The gold price has recently shown a strong performance, with a slight pullback yesterday before resuming its upward trend. The short-term cycle continues to create new highs, and there may still be upward space in the short term, but attention should be paid to the resistance levels above. The main strategy is to adopt a low-buy approach and reduce holdings to take profits at highs. From a larger cycle perspective, the upward structure is intact, currently in a high-level consolidation, and we should pay attention to whether the price can create new highs. The resistance level above is around 2720-2730, while the support level below is around 2620-2630.

Viewpoint: Strong consolidation, short-term attempts at low-buy opportunities, reduce holdings to take profits at highs.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The January EIA monthly report slightly raised the 2025 crude oil price; the OPEC monthly report maintained the 2025 global crude oil demand growth forecast and slightly raised the 2025-2026 global economic growth forecast; the December IEA monthly report slightly raised the 2025 global oil demand growth forecast. At the beginning of December, the OPEC+ meeting extended voluntary production cuts until March next year, and the production increase plan was postponed until April next year, with all cuts and compensatory cuts extended until the end of 2026. EIA crude oil inventories have been decreasing continuously, and this data has fluctuated significantly recently, which may affect the supply-demand structure.

Technical Analysis:

U.S. crude oil maintains a strong outlook, with a significant rise in the night session, and the short-term cycle has created new highs without signs of weakening. However, as prices approach the resistance level above, caution is warranted for a potential short-term pullback. Reduce holdings to take profits at highs, and the short-term strategy remains focused on low-buy opportunities, paying attention to whether prices can break through the resistance level. Overall, after a low-level consolidation, crude oil prices have broken upward, showing signs of stabilization at a larger level. The important resistance area above is around 79-80, while the support area below is around 69-70.

Viewpoint: Strong consolidation, primarily focused on low-buy strategies, reduce holdings to take profits at highs.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The European Central Bank’s December interest rate decision saw a third consecutive 25 basis point cut, removing the language of maintaining a “restrictive” interest rate. Progress in combating inflation is smooth, but economic recovery is slower than expected, with plans to end the bond purchase program by the end of 2024. The December Federal Reserve interest rate decision, with a 25 basis point cut in line with expectations, shows a robust labor market and strong overall economic performance, with expectations for a slowdown in rate cuts. The U.S. December non-farm payroll data was strong, with a significant increase in employment numbers and a slight decrease in the unemployment rate, while the December CPI rose moderately. The manufacturing PMI values for the Eurozone and major economies showed a slight decline.

Technical Analysis:

The euro price rose sharply yesterday before retreating, with the short-term cycle rebounding to near the resistance level, encountering resistance and falling back. There may be selling pressure above, so the short-term strategy is primarily focused on high-sell opportunities, reducing holdings to take profits at lows, and paying attention to whether prices can create new lows. Overall, the daily line shows a downward consolidation, with a weak performance at a larger level, and no signs of stabilization have appeared yet. The small-level resistance area above is around 1.0350-1.0400, while the support area below is around 0.9900-1.0000.

Viewpoint: Weak consolidation, primarily focused on high-sell strategies, reduce holdings to take profits at lows.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.