HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0307

Time	Data and Events	Importance
15:00	UK February Halifax House Price Index MoM (seasonally adjusted)	★★★
15:45	France January Trade Balance	★★★
17:30	European Central Bank President Lagarde, Executive Board members Nagel, Knot, and Panetta speak at the European Central Bank’s 2025 International Women’s Day Conference	★★★
18:00	Eurozone Q4 GDP YoY Revision	★★★
	Eurozone Q4 Employment Change QoQ Final	★★★
21:30	Canada February Employment Change	★★★
	US February Unemployment Rate	★★★★★
	US February Non-Farm Payrolls (seasonally adjusted)	★★★★★
	US February Average Hourly Earnings YoY	★★★
	US February Average Hourly Earnings MoM	★★★
23:15	Federal Reserve Governor Bowman participates in the panel discussion at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business’s US Monetary Policy Forum.	★★★
23:45	FOMC permanent voter Williams participates in the panel discussion at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business’s US Monetary Policy Forum.	★★★

Variety	Viewpoint	Support Zone	Resistance Zone
US Dollar Index	Slightly Weak Fluctuation	103.5-104	107-107.5
Gold	Short-Term Rebound	2830-2850	2920-2930
Crude Oil	Slightly Weak Fluctuation	65-66	70-71
Euro	Slightly Strong Fluctuation	1.0450-1.0500	1.0850-1.0900

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and have limitations, they are predictions for reference and learning only, and do not constitute investment advice. Investment has risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

At the end of January, the Federal Reserve meeting kept interest rates unchanged, the labor market remains strong, economic activity is steadily expanding, and inflation levels are still slightly high. Expectations for monetary policy easing have cooled, and attention will be paid to new government policies. In January, non-farm payrolls saw an increase of 143,000 jobs, less than expected, while the unemployment rate slightly fell to 4.0%, indicating a robust labor market. The non-seasonally adjusted CPI YoY in January recorded 3.0%, slightly above the previous value and expectation. The January Core PCE Price Index YoY slightly declined, meeting expectations. Focus on the non-farm payroll data on Friday.

Technical Analysis:

The US dollar index slightly retreated yesterday, with a small cycle hitting a low, showing weak short-term performance. It is currently near a small support area, which could see fluctuations or a rebound. It is advisable to consider a rebound trading strategy, selling at highs to reduce holdings. Overall, after a period of fluctuation at a high level, there are signs of weakening; a short-term continuation of a weak adjustment may occur. The resistance area is around 107-107.5, while the support area is 103.5-104.

Viewpoint: Slightly weak fluctuations; focus on opportunities to sell at highs and reduce holdings at lows for profit.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and have limitations, they are predictions for reference and learning only, and do not constitute investment advice. Investment has risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East continues to worsen, while the situation in Eastern Europe has eased, which creates uncertainty. The European Central Bank’s interest rate decision at the beginning of March marks the fifth consecutive rate cut of 25 basis points, with inflation progressing smoothly and economic growth risks leaning downwards. At the end of January, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision maintained rates unchanged, with strong economic activity but still high inflation levels. Expectations for rate cuts have eased somewhat. January’s non-farm payroll data in the U.S. was mediocre, with new job additions falling short of expectations, while the unemployment rate saw a slight decline, slightly better than expected; the annual CPI for January showed a slight increase, slightly above expectations.

Technical Analysis:

Gold prices have been fluctuating slightly on a daily basis, with intense bullish and bearish competition in the short term, currently approaching a pressure zone without a significant upward breakthrough. Those holding long positions are advised to take profits at highs; if this structure is broken, the market may strengthen; otherwise, it could trend sideways. From a long-term perspective, the upward structure remains intact, and the daily fluctuations are trending upwards, with attention on whether prices can set a new high. Potential resistance levels are near 2920-2930, while smaller support levels are around 2830-2850.

Opinion: A short-term rebound is approaching the pressure structure, focus on whether it can break upward. Watch for the impact of non-farm data.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and have limitations, they are predictions for reference and learning only, and do not constitute investment advice. Investment has risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The February EIA monthly report maintains its global crude oil demand growth forecast for this and next year, with slight adjustments to 2025 oil prices; the OPEC monthly report also maintains its global crude oil demand growth forecast for this and next year; the IEA monthly report slightly raised its global oil demand growth forecast for 2025. At the beginning of February, the OPEC+ meeting adhered to the previous oil production agreement, with the committee agreeing to gradually increase oil production starting April 1, consistent with prior plans. EIA crude oil inventories increased significantly, which may put pressure on oil prices, necessitating attention to supply-demand structural changes.

Technical Analysis:

U.S. crude oil saw slight fluctuations yesterday, with a rebound in the night session; it is currently at a relatively low level, and short-term fluctuations may continue. Those holding short positions are advised to take profits at lows, and short-term traders can look for buying opportunities while ensuring timely profit-taking or waiting for rebound opportunities for short positions. Overall, crude oil prices are in low-level fluctuations and have not shown signs of stabilization. Resistance zones are near 70-71, while support zones are around 65-66.

Opinion: Fluctuating slightly weak, support zones exist; attempts at short-term buying are possible, or waiting for rebound opportunities for short positions.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and have limitations, they are predictions for reference and learning only, and do not constitute investment advice. Investment has risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The European Central Bank’s interest rate decision at the beginning of March marks the fifth consecutive rate cut of 25 basis points, and inflation has shown smooth decline progress; it has slightly lowered GDP growth forecasts for this and next year, with economic growth risks leaning downwards, and tariffs may have negative impacts. The Federal Reserve’s January interest rate decision maintained rates unchanged, with overall economic performance being strong and easing expectations somewhat mitigated. January’s non-farm payroll data in the U.S. was mediocre, with fewer new jobs added while unemployment saw a slight decline; the CPI for January showed a slight increase. The manufacturing PMI in the eurozone showed little change. Watch for non-farm data on Friday.

Technical Analysis:

The euro’s price saw a slight rise and fall yesterday, currently at a small pressure level and potentially facing some selling pressure; those holding long positions are advised to take profits at highs. The short-term strategy is to focus on buying on dips while watching if the price can break the resistance level. Overall, prices are at a relatively low level, showing a daily fluctuating structure that may present signs of larger stabilization. Small-level resistance areas are near 1.0850-1.0900, while support areas are around 1.0450-1.0500.

Opinion: Fluctuating slightly strong, focus on buying on dips while watching if prices can break the resistance level again.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and have limitations, they are predictions for reference and learning only, and do not constitute investment advice. Investment has risks; trading requires caution.