HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0409

Time	Data and Events	Importance
04:30	U.S. API Crude Oil Inventory for the Week Ending April 4	★★★
10:00	New Zealand Reserve Bank Interest Rate Decision for April 9	★★★
12:00	U.S. Equal Tariffs Officially Take Effect	★★★★★
14:15	Speech by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda	★★★
22:00	U.S. Wholesale Sales Monthly Rate for February	★★★
22:30	U.S. EIA Crude Oil Inventory for the Week Ending April 4	★★★★
	U.S. EIA Crude Oil Inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma for the Week Ending April 4	★★★
	U.S. EIA Strategic Petroleum Reserve Inventory for the Week Ending April 4	★★★
Next Day 00:30	2027 FOMC Voting Member Barkin Participates in Washington Economic Club Dialogue Event	★★★
Next Day 01:00	U.S. 10-Year Treasury Auction Results – Yield Rate for the Week Ending April 9	★★★
	U.S. 10-Year Treasury Auction Results – Bid-to-Cover Ratio for the Week Ending April 9	★★★
Next Day 02:00	Federal Reserve Releases Minutes from March Monetary Policy Meeting	★★★

Variety	Viewpoint	Support Range	Resistance Range
U.S. Dollar Index	Weak Fluctuation	100-101	104-104.5
Gold	Weak Fluctuation	2900-2920	3020-3050
Crude Oil	Weak Fluctuation	56-57	62-63
Euro	Strong Fluctuation	1.0750-1.0800	1.1200-1.1250

*Pre-market views are timely and limited in nature, representing forecasts for reference and learning only, not constituting investment advice; trading risks are borne by the trader. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

In March, the Federal Reserve decided to maintain interest rates, with a stable labor market, raised inflation expectations for this year and next, and lowered GDP growth forecasts for the next three years. Starting in April, the pace of balance sheet reduction will slow down, and there is uncertainty regarding tariff policies. In March, non-farm payrolls saw an increase of 228,000 jobs, far exceeding expectations, although the unemployment rate slightly rose, indicating a strong labor market. February’s unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate was slightly lower than previous values and expectations; February’s core PCE price index rebounded slightly. Tariff policies increase market risks and uncertainties.

Technical Analysis:

The U.S. Dollar Index encountered resistance yesterday and fell back, showing a downward trend in the short term, with selling pressure above the price continuing to test support areas without signs of stabilization. Overall, prices are in a high adjustment phase, and the daily trend is showing downward fluctuations without signs of stabilization. The resistance area is around 104-104.5, and the support area is around 100-101.

Viewpoint: Weak fluctuations, with a short-term downward trend, focus on the effectiveness of the support below.

*Pre-market views are timely and limited in nature, representing forecasts for reference and learning only, not constituting investment advice; trading risks are borne by the trader. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East continue to worsen, and the situation in Eastern Europe remains uncertain in the short term. The European Central Bank’s interest rate decision in early March cut rates for the fifth consecutive time by 25 basis points, with inflation showing steady progress and risks to economic growth tilted downward. The U.S. Federal Reserve’s March interest rate decision remained unchanged, with a stable labor market, a downshift in GDP growth expectations, and a plan to slow down the pace of balance sheet reduction. The U.S. February unadjusted CPI year-on-year was 2.8%, slightly below expectations; March non-farm payroll data showed a significant increase in job numbers, with a slight rise in the unemployment rate; U.S. tariff policies may stimulate gold’s safe-haven attributes.

Technical Analysis:

Gold prices experienced slight upward fluctuations in the night session, showing a mixed trend in the short cycle, with prices not significantly hitting new lows. In the short term, there may be a retest of resistance levels, with attention on weakening signals to attempt short positions for timely profit. From a larger cycle perspective, the previous price surge indicates that the current phase is a minor-level correction, with larger price fluctuations. The upper resistance levels are around 3020-3050, and the lower support levels are around 2900-2920.

Viewpoint: The trend is weak with volatility; a rebound higher short position opportunity can be attempted.

*Pre-market views are timely and limited in nature, representing forecasts for reference and learning only, not constituting investment advice; trading risks are borne by the trader. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The March EIA monthly report essentially maintains the oil price outlook for 2025, with a slight upward revision of the global oil demand growth forecast for 2026; the OPEC monthly report keeps the global oil demand growth forecast for this and next year unchanged; the IEA monthly report slightly lowers the global oil demand growth forecast for 2025. At the OPEC+ ministerial meeting in early April, the oil production policy remains unchanged, agreeing to an unexpected increase in production in May. U.S. tariff policies may suppress global economic expectations and pressure oil prices from the demand side. Pay attention to the EIA crude oil inventory report on Wednesday.

Technical Analysis:

U.S. crude oil prices fell sharply in the night session, reaching new lows in the short cycle, with weak performance in the short term. Current prices are near support areas and may experience fluctuations or rebounds. Those holding short positions should consider taking profits on dips, with a primary strategy of high short positions on rebounds. Overall, the crude oil price performance is weak, having broken important supports without signs of a price bottoming out. The upper resistance area is around 62-63, and the lower support area is around 56-57.

Viewpoint: The trend is weak with volatility; those holding short positions should consider taking profits on dips, with a primary strategy of high short positions on rebounds.

*Pre-market views are timely and limited in nature, representing forecasts for reference and learning only, not constituting investment advice; trading risks are borne by the trader. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The European Central Bank’s interest rate decision in early March cut rates for the fifth consecutive time by 25 basis points, with inflation falling steadily and a slight downward revision of GDP growth expectations for this and next year, while economic growth risks tilt downward, and tariffs may lead to negative effects. The U.S. Federal Reserve’s March interest rate decision remained unchanged, with an upward revision of inflation expectations and a downshift in GDP growth expectations, slowing balance sheet reduction. The U.S. March non-farm payroll data showed a significant increase in job numbers with a slight rise in the unemployment rate. In the eurozone and major economies like France and Germany, the manufacturing PMI values were slightly better than previous and expected values.

Technical Analysis:

The euro price rose slightly yesterday, with signs of stabilization in the short cycle, and may continue to test resistance levels with a strong performance in the short term, mainly focusing on buying on dips and taking profits at highs. Overall, after a substantial earlier price increase, there are signs of bottoming out after a short-term correction, and a recovery in the upwards trend may be possible. The upper resistance area is around 1.1200-1.1250, while the lower support area is around 1.0750-1.0800.

Viewpoint: The trend is strong with volatility; there are signs of stabilization after a short-term correction, and the strategy is to buy on dips and take profits at highs.

*Pre-market views are timely and limited in nature, representing forecasts for reference and learning only, not constituting investment advice; trading risks are borne by the trader. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.