HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0410

Time	Data and Events	Importance
18:00	Speech by Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Lowe	★★★
20:30	U.S. March unadjusted CPI Year-on-Year	★★★★★
	U.S. March seasonally adjusted CPI Month-on-Month	★★★★
	U.S. initial unemployment claims for the week ending April 5	★★★★
	U.S. March seasonally adjusted core CPI Month-on-Month	★★★
	U.S. March unadjusted core CPI Year-on-Year	★★★
	2027 FOMC voting member Bullard delivers a speech titled “Navigating Through Economic Fog” at a summit and participates in a Q&A session.	★★★
22:00	2025 FOMC voting member Schmidt speaks on the economy and monetary policy	★★★
22:30	U.S. EIA Natural Gas Inventory for the week ending April 4	★★★
Next day 00:00	EIA releases the Monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook report	★★★
	2025 FOMC voting member Goolsbee gives a speech at the New York Economic Club	★★★

Variety	Perspective	Support Range	Resistance Range
Dollar Index	Mildly Weak Fluctuations	100-101	104-104.5
Gold	Mildly Strong Fluctuations	3000-3020	3160-3180
Crude Oil	Short-term Rebound	56-57	62-63
Euro	Mildly Strong Fluctuations	1.0750-1.0800	1.1200-1.1250

*Pre-market perspectives are time-sensitive and limited, merely predictions for reference and learning, not investment advice; operate at your own risk. Investment carries risks; trade with caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

In March, the Federal Reserve meeting maintained interest rates, the labor market remained solid, raised inflation expectations for this and next year, and lowered GDP growth forecasts for the next three years. The pace of tapering will slow starting in April, and there is uncertainty regarding tariff policies. In March, the non-farm payroll report showed an increase of 228,000 jobs, significantly exceeding expectations, while the unemployment rate rose slightly, showing strong labor market performance. Core PCE price index in February slightly rebounded. Tariff policies increase market risks and uncertainties. Focus on U.S. March unadjusted CPI Year-on-Year data on Thursday.

Technical Analysis:

The Dollar Index showed a slight rebound during the overnight session, approaching the support zone, and signs of slowing down in the decline are observed, but there is also selling pressure above. In the short term, it might be in a mildly fluctuating structure, focusing on the effectiveness of the support zone. Overall, the price is correcting from a high level with a daily fluctuating downward trend, and there are no signs of stabilization yet. The resistance area is around 104-104.5, while the support area is around 100-101.

Viewpoint: Mildly weak fluctuations, with a slight slowdown in the drop on the short cycle, focusing on the effectiveness of the lower support.

*Pre-market perspectives are time-sensitive and limited, merely predictions for reference and learning, not investment advice; operate at your own risk. Investment carries risks; trade with caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East continues to deteriorate, and there remains uncertainty in the Eastern European situation in the short term. The European Central Bank’s interest rate decision in early March saw a consecutive fifth 25 basis point cut, with inflation progressing smoothly while economic growth risks are skewed downwards. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision in March maintained rates, with a steady labor market and lowered GDP growth expectations, indicating a slowing of tapering. The U.S. March non-farm data showed a significant exceedance in new job creation, while the unemployment rate rose slightly; U.S. tariff policies may stimulate the safe-haven attributes of gold. Focus on U.S. CPI data.

Technical Analysis:

The gold price rose sharply yesterday, closing with a large bullish candle, showing signs of a strengthening market. In the short term, it may test resistance on the upside, and a pullback suggests a long position at lower prices while reducing holdings at higher prices. Attention should also be paid to whether the price can reach a new high. From a long-term perspective, the previous significant price increase is currently experiencing a secondary level correction, with considerable volatility in the market. The upper resistance level is around 3160-3180, and the lower support level is around 3000-3020.

Opinion: The market is oscillating towards strength, with a pullback suggesting a long position, and attention on whether the price can reach a new high.

*Pre-market perspectives are time-sensitive and limited, merely predictions for reference and learning, not investment advice; operate at your own risk. Investment carries risks; trade with caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The March EIA monthly report basically maintains the oil price forecast for 2025, with a slight upward adjustment to the global oil demand growth expectation for 2026; the OPEC monthly report maintains the global oil demand growth expectations for this year and next unchanged; the IEA monthly report slightly lowers the global oil demand growth expectation for 2025. In early April, the OPEC+ ministerial meeting maintained the oil production policy unchanged and agreed to increase production beyond expectations in May. U.S. tariff policies are suppressing global economic expectations, which may put pressure on oil prices from the demand side. EIA reported an increase of 2.55 million barrels in crude oil inventory, indicating a relatively loose supply and demand structure.

Technical Analysis:

U.S. crude oil rebounded sharply yesterday, showing good support on the downside. It is currently at a small-level resistance point, focusing on whether it can break through upwards and whether the price will retest the support structure. At that point, a long position may be attempted, with profits taken at higher prices. Overall, the performance of oil prices has been weak, breaking through important support without showing signs of a stop in the decline. The upper resistance area is around 62-63, and the lower support area is around 56-57.

Opinion: Short-term rebound, focusing on signals of a second retest and stabilization.

*Pre-market perspectives are time-sensitive and limited, merely predictions for reference and learning, not investment advice; operate at your own risk. Investment carries risks; trade with caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The European Central Bank’s interest rate decision in early March saw a consecutive fifth cut of 25 basis points. Progress on inflation is steady, leading to a slight downward adjustment of GDP growth expectations for this year and next, with economic growth risks slanting downward due to potential negative impacts from tariffs. The U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision in March remained unchanged, raising inflation expectations while lowering GDP growth expectations and slowing the pace of balance sheet reduction. The U.S. March non-farm data showed a significant increase in new jobs, with a slight rise in the unemployment rate. In the eurozone and economies like France and Germany, the manufacturing PMI values were slightly better than previous and expected values.

Technical Analysis:

The euro price rose slightly yesterday before retreating, failing to reach a new high in the short cycle. There may be selling pressure above, but there is also support below. In the short term, it may oscillate, primarily with a low long strategy and taking profits at higher prices. Overall, the previous market saw a significant rise, and after a short-term pullback, it shows signs of halting its decline and possibly resuming the upward trend. The upper resistance area is around 1.1200-1.1250, and the lower support area is around 1.0750-1.0800.

Opinion: Oscillating towards strength, primarily with a low long strategy in the short term, taking profits at higher prices.

*Pre-market perspectives are time-sensitive and limited, merely predictions for reference and learning, not investment advice; operate at your own risk. Investment carries risks; trade with caution.