HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0416

Time	Data and Events	Importance
04:30	U.S. API Crude Oil Inventory as of April 11	★★★
14:00	UK March CPI Monthly Rate	★★★
	UK March Retail Price Index Monthly Rate	★★★
16:00	Eurozone February Adjusted Current Account	★★★
17:00	Eurozone March CPI Year-on-Year Final Value	★★★
	Eurozone March CPI Month-on-Month Preliminary Value	★★★
20:00	WTO releases 2025 Global Trade Outlook Report	★★★
20:30	U.S. March Retail Sales Monthly Rate	★★★★
21:15	U.S. March Industrial Production Monthly Rate	★★★
21:45	Canada Central Bank Rate Decision as of April 16	★★★
22:00	U.S. April NAHB Housing Market Index	★★★
22:30	U.S. EIA Crude Oil Inventory as of April 11	★★★★
	U.S. EIA Cushing Oklahoma Crude Oil Inventory as of April 11	★★★
	U.S. EIA Strategic Petroleum Reserve Inventory as of April 11	★★★
Next Day 01:30	Federal Reserve Chairman Powell speaks at the Chicago Economic Club	★★★★

Variety	Viewpoint	Support Range	Resistance Range
U.S. Dollar Index	Weak fluctuation	99-100	103-104
Gold	Strong fluctuation	3200-3220	3300-3320
Crude Oil	Short-term rebound	56-57	62-63
Euro	Strong fluctuation	1.0950-1.1000	1.1450-1.1500

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are based on projections, are for reference and study only, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the investor. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

In March’s Federal Reserve meeting, interest rates were kept unchanged, the labor market remained solid, inflation expectations for this and next year were raised, GDP growth forecasts for the next three years were lowered, and the pace of balance sheet reduction will slow starting in April, with uncertainty in tariff policies. Non-farm employment data for March showed an increase of 228,000 jobs, far exceeding expectations, with a slight rise in the unemployment rate, indicating a strong labor market. Tariff policies add risks and uncertainties to the market. March unadjusted CPI year-on-year showed a slight decline, with expectations for rate cuts rising in the future. Focus on March retail sales monthly rate.

Technical Analysis:

The U.S. Dollar Index slightly rebounded before falling back during overnight trading, maintaining a fluctuating market in the short term. Currently, it is near the support area, and excessive short-selling is not advisable; there may be continued fluctuations or a rebound in the short term. Watch for signals indicating stabilization after a drop. Overall, prices have fallen from high levels, breaking through important support areas without signs of stabilization. Resistance area is near 103-104, while support area is near 99-100.

Viewpoint: Weak fluctuations, prices are close to the support area, with potential for fluctuations or a rebound in the short term.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are based on projections, are for reference and study only, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the investor. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East continue to worsen, and the situation in Eastern Europe remains uncertain in the short term. At the beginning of March, the European Central Bank (ECB) announced its decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points for the fifth consecutive time, with inflation progressing smoothly, although the risk of economic growth leans downward. In March, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision remained unchanged, with a stable labor market but a lowered GDP growth forecast, indicating a slowdown in quantitative tightening. In March, the U.S. non-farm payroll data showed a significant increase in new jobs, with a slight rise in the unemployment rate; the annual CPI in March slightly decreased, raising expectations for rate cuts by the Federal Reserve; U.S. tariff policies may stimulate gold’s safe-haven appeal.

Technical Analysis:

Gold prices surged significantly during the day, breaking through short-term upward resistance and setting new highs, showing a strong performance with no signs of weakening yet. From a longer-term perspective, the upward structure remains intact, with a significant rise and new highs on the daily chart, and no signs of weakness. The upper resistance level is likely around 3300-3320, while the lower support level is around 3200-3220.

Viewpoint: Oscillating slightly stronger, prices set new highs, with a strategy of buying on dips and reducing holdings at highs.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are based on projections, are for reference and study only, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the investor. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

In the April EIA monthly report, forecasts for oil production over the next two years remain largely unchanged but global oil demand has been slightly downgraded; the OPEC monthly report has slightly lowered the global economic growth forecast for this year and the next, as well as the growth forecast for global oil demand; the IEA report has reduced the growth forecast for global oil demand in 2025. At the beginning of April, the OPEC+ ministerial meeting decided to maintain oil production policies unchanged and agreed to an unexpected increase in production for May. There is uncertainty regarding U.S. tariff policies, which may affect demand. Watch for EIA oil inventory data on Wednesday.

Technical Analysis:

U.S. crude oil has recently shown volatile performance, with daily candles forming small entities without breaking through short-term resistance, although prices remain relatively low. In the short term, a secondary test of the lower support structure may occur, where stability signals will be important to watch. Overall, crude oil has performed poorly recently, with prices significantly oversold and no signs of a major stabilization yet. The upper resistance area is around 62-63, with a support area around 56-57.

Viewpoint: Short-term rebound, watch for stability signals on secondary tests, and look for short-term buying opportunities.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are based on projections, are for reference and study only, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the investor. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The ECB’s interest rate decision at the beginning of March saw a fifth consecutive cut of 25 basis points, with a smooth decline in inflation and a slight reduction in GDP growth expectations for the current and next two years, indicating downward risks for economic growth. In March, the Federal Reserve’s decision maintained interest rates, raised inflation expectations, and lowered GDP growth forecasts while indicating a slowdown in quantitative tightening. March’s non-farm data showed employment well above expectations, with a slight rise in the unemployment rate; March’s CPI annual rate slightly declined. In the Eurozone and economies like France and Germany, the manufacturing PMI values were slightly better than previous and expected values. Attention should be paid to the ECB’s interest rate decision on Thursday.

Technical Analysis:

Euro prices slightly pulled back during the night session without significant breaks, exhibiting signs of stabilization in the short cycle, suggesting a potential continued upward movement to test resistance levels. The short-term outlook remains strong, and opportunities for short-term buying can be attempted for timely gains, while also watching if prices can set new highs again. Overall, the long-term upward structure remains intact, with no signs of weakness. The upper resistance area is around 1.1450-1.1500, while the lower support area is around 1.0950-1.1000.

Viewpoint: Oscillating slightly stronger, focusing on short-term buying strategies while reducing holdings at highs for profits.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are based on projections, are for reference and study only, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the investor. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.