HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0423

Time	Data and Events	Importance
To Be Determined	G20 Finance and Central Bank Ministers’ Meeting, until April 24	★★★
04:30	U.S. API Crude Oil Inventory for the week ending April 18	★★★
15:15	France’s Preliminary Manufacturing PMI for April	★★★
15:30	Germany’s Preliminary Manufacturing PMI for April	★★★
16:00	Eurozone’s Preliminary Manufacturing PMI for April	★★★
16:30	UK’s Preliminary Manufacturing PMI for April	★★★
	UK’s Preliminary Services PMI for April	★★★
17:00	Eurozone’s Adjusted Trade Balance for February	★★★
21:30	2025 FOMC Voting Member Musalem and Fed Governor Waller give opening remarks at an event	★★★
21:45	U.S. Preliminary Manufacturing PMI for April from S&P Global	★★★
	U.S. Preliminary Services PMI for April from S&P Global	★★★
22:00	U.S. Annualized New Home Sales for March	★★★
22:30	U.S. EIA Crude Oil Inventory for the week ending April 18	★★★★
	U.S. EIA Cushing, Oklahoma Crude Oil Inventory for the week ending April 18	★★★
	U.S. EIA Strategic Petroleum Reserve Inventory for the week ending April 18	★★★
Next Day 02:00	Fed releases Economic Conditions Beige Book	★★★

Variety	Opinion	Support Range	Resistance Range
U.S. Dollar Index	Weak Fluctuations	96-97	100-101
Gold	Short-term Pullback	3300-3330	3500-3550
Crude Oil	Short-term Rebound	56-57	65-66
Euro	Strong Fluctuations	1.1300-1.1350	1.1600-1.1650

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited in scope, constituting forecasts for reference and learning only; they do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the investor. Investing involves risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

In the March Federal Reserve meeting, interest rates were kept unchanged, the labor market remained stable, inflation expectations for this year and next were raised, while GDP growth forecasts for the next three years were lowered. From April, the pace of balance sheet reduction will slow, and there is uncertainty surrounding tariff policies. In March, non-farm payrolls added 228,000 jobs, significantly exceeding expectations, and the unemployment rate rose slightly, reflecting a strong labor market. Tariff policies increase market risks and uncertainties. The year-on-year CPI rate decreased slightly in March, and future interest rate cut expectations are rising.

Technical Analysis:

The U.S. Dollar Index rebounded slightly yesterday with moderate strength and showed signs of resistance near the upper pressure area. Prices are at relative lows, and a short-term fluctuation is anticipated, with no significant signs of stabilization yet. Overall, prices have retreated from high levels, broken through key support zones, and stabilization signs have yet to appear. The upper pressure area is around 100-101, while the lower support area is around 96-97.

Opinion: Weak fluctuations, short-cycle rebounds, with no significant stabilization yet.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited in scope, constituting forecasts for reference and learning only; they do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the investor. Investing involves risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East are escalating, and there is uncertainty in the situation in Eastern Europe. The ECB’s interest rate decision in April resulted in a 25 basis point cut for the sixth consecutive time, inflation is falling smoothly, and economic resilience has somewhat strengthened. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision in March remained unchanged, the labor market remains stable, and GDP growth expectations were revised downward, with a slowdown in balance sheet reduction expected. In March, U.S. non-farm data saw employment numbers significantly exceed expectations, while the unemployment rate rose slightly; the year-on-year CPI in March showed a slight decline, increasing expectations for a Fed interest rate cut. U.S. tariff policies may stimulate the safe-haven attributes of gold.

Technical Analysis:

Gold prices fell sharply in the night session, entering a correction in a small cycle, showing no signs of stopping the decline. Currently, they are close to the support area, and attention is needed to see if there will be signs of stabilization. If the structure is broken, the trend may further correct. From a larger cycle view, the upward structure is maintained, and it is currently a secondary level adjustment, with no signs of stabilization yet. The upper resistance may be around 3500-3550, while the lower support may be around 3300-3330.

Opinion: Short-term correction, not yet stabilized, focus on the effectiveness of the support area.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited in scope, constituting forecasts for reference and learning only; they do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the investor. Investing involves risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The April EIA monthly report basically maintains oil production for this year and next, with a slight downward revision of global oil demand for this year and next; the OPEC monthly report slightly lowered the global economic growth expectation for this year and next, and revised downward the expected growth of global oil demand for this year and next; the IEA monthly report revised down the expected growth of global oil demand for 2025. In early April, the OPEC+ ministerial meeting maintained the oil production policy unchanged and agreed to an unexpected production increase in May. There is uncertainty in U.S. tariff policies, which may affect the demand side. Pay attention to the EIA oil inventory report on Wednesday.

Technical Analysis:

U.S. crude oil rebounded slightly in the night session, showing multiple upward signals in a small cycle, with bulls slightly favored in the short term, indicating there may still be room for upward movement. It may be worth attempting short positions for quick profits. Overall, crude oil has shown relatively weak performance previously, and a rebound has emerged at low levels, with no signs of significant stabilization yet. The upper resistance area is around 65-66, while the lower support area is around 56-57.

Opinion: Short-term rebound, attempt to buy on dips and take profits in a timely manner.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited in scope, constituting forecasts for reference and learning only; they do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the investor. Investing involves risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The ECB’s interest rate decision in April resulted in the sixth consecutive 25 basis point cut, inflation is falling smoothly, and economic resilience has somewhat strengthened. The monetary policy stance will be dynamically adjusted based on data and sequential assessments, paying attention to trade situations. The Fed’s interest rate decision in March remained unchanged, while inflation expectations were revised upward and GDP growth expectations were revised downward, with a slowdown in balance sheet reduction expected. The U.S. non-farm data in March showed employment numbers significantly exceed expectations, while the unemployment rate rose slightly; the year-on-year CPI in March showed a slight decline. Pay attention to the Eurozone’s manufacturing PMI value for April on Wednesday.

Technical Analysis:

The euro price fell significantly yesterday, entering a correction in a small cycle, but this did not change the larger cycle trend. Currently close to the support area, there may be fluctuations, and attention is needed to see if signs of stabilization emerge. If this structure is broken, caution is warranted as the trend may turn weak. Overall, the larger upward structure remains intact, with no signs of weakening yet. The upper resistance area is around 1.1600-1.1650, while the lower support area is around 1.1300-1.1350.

Opinion: Fluctuations are slightly strong, with a small cycle correction; focus on the effectiveness of the support area.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited in scope, constituting forecasts for reference and learning only; they do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the investor. Investing involves risks; trading requires caution.