HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0424

Time	Data and Events	Importance
To be determined	Trump states that the US and Ukraine will sign a mineral agreement	★★★
16:00	Germany’s April IFO Business Climate Index	★★★
18:00	UK’s April CBI Industrial Orders Balance	★★★
20:30	US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending April 19	★★★★
	US March Durable Goods Orders Month-on-Month	★★★
22:00	US March Existing Home Sales Annualized	★★★
22:30	US EIA Natural Gas Inventory for the week ending April 18	★★★

Varieties	Views	Support Range	Resistance Range
US Dollar Index	Fluctuating Weak	96-97	100-101
Gold	Short-term Correction	3200-3230	3380-3400
Crude Oil	Short-term Rebound	56-57	65-66
Euro	Fluctuating Strong	1.1300-1.1350	1.1600-1.1650

*Pre-market view, time-sensitive and limited, is a prediction for reference and learning only, not an investment advice; operate at your own risk. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

In the March Federal Reserve meeting, interest rates were maintained, the labor market remained robust, inflation expectations for this and next year were raised, while the GDP growth forecast for the next three years was lowered. Starting in April, the pace of balance sheet reduction will slow, and there is uncertainty in tariff policies. The March non-farm data showed that 228,000 new jobs were added, far exceeding expectations, while the unemployment rate slightly increased, indicating strong performance in the labor market. Tariff policies increase market risks and uncertainties. The year-on-year CPI for March showed a slight decline, raising expectations for future interest rate cuts.

Technical Analysis:

The US Dollar Index continued its rebound trend yesterday, currently approaching the resistance zone without a significant breakthrough, suggesting potential selling pressure. Short-term fluctuations may occur; if this structure breaks, the trend could strengthen further. Overall, the price has pulled back from high levels, breaking important support zones, and has yet to show signs of stabilization. The resistance area above is around 100-101, while the support area below is around 96-97.

View: Fluctuating Weak with short-cycle rebounds; not yet stabilized on a larger scale.

*Pre-market view, time-sensitive and limited, is a prediction for reference and learning only, not an investment advice; operate at your own risk. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East are escalating, and uncertainties exist in Eastern Europe. The ECB’s April interest rate decision involved a continuous sixth rate cut of 25 basis points, with inflation smoothly declining and economic resilience somewhat enhancing. The March Federal Reserve rate decision was maintained; the labor market is stable, the GDP growth forecast is lowered, and the pace of balance sheet reduction will slow. The March non-farm data showed that the number of new jobs significantly exceeded expectations, while the unemployment rate slightly increased; the year-on-year CPI for March showed a slight decline, leading to rising expectations for interest rate cuts. US tariff policies may stimulate gold’s safe-haven properties.

Technical Analysis:

Gold prices continued to decline sharply yesterday, showing weakness in the short cycle. The market slightly rebounded in the early session, but there may be selling pressure above, and no stabilization signs have appeared yet. Short positions can be attempted while watching for signs of stabilization on a second pullback. In the long term, the upward structure is maintained, but there are no signs of stabilization yet. The resistance level above is around 3380-3400, while the support level below is around 3200-3230.

Viewpoint: Short-term pullback, attempt short position opportunities, pay attention to the effectiveness of the second retest support area.

*Pre-market view, time-sensitive and limited, is a prediction for reference and learning only, not an investment advice; operate at your own risk. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The April EIA monthly report basically maintains oil production for this year and next, slightly adjusting down the global oil demand for this year and next; the OPEC monthly report slightly lowers the expected global economic growth rate for this year and next, as well as the expected growth rate of global oil demand for this year and next; the IEA monthly report reduces the expected growth rate of global oil demand for 2025. At the beginning of April, the OPEC+ ministerial meeting maintained the unchanged oil production policy and agreed to unexpectedly increase production in May. The uncertainty of U.S. tariff policies may affect demand. EIA crude oil inventory has slightly increased, with a neutral short-term impact.

Technical Analysis:

U.S. crude oil saw a significant pullback yesterday, showing signs of resistance near the upper pressure level, but there is also support below. The probability of a continued upward test of pressure in the short term is relatively high, and it could be in a volatile structure. One can attempt to go long and take profits in a timely manner. Overall, crude oil has performed weakly in the past, and there is a rebound at low levels, but no signs of significant stabilization have yet appeared. The pressure area above is around 65-66, while the support area below is around 56-57.

Viewpoint: Short-term rebound, attempt low long position opportunities, take profits promptly.

*Pre-market view, time-sensitive and limited, is a prediction for reference and learning only, not an investment advice; operate at your own risk. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The ECB’s April interest rate decision involved a continuous sixth rate cut of 25 basis points, with inflation declining smoothly and economic resilience somewhat enhancing, relying on data and assessing incrementally to dynamically adjust monetary policy stance while paying attention to trade situations. The Federal Reserve’s March interest rate decision kept rates unchanged but raised inflation expectations and lowered GDP growth expectations, planning to slow down the balance sheet reduction pace. In March, U.S. non-farm payroll data showed a substantial increase in employment numbers, with a slight rise in the unemployment rate; March CPI annual rate decreased slightly. The manufacturing PMI values for major Eurozone countries in April were slightly higher than expected, with minimal changes from the previous values.

Technical Analysis:

The euro price continued its pullback yesterday, with a weak performance on a small cycle and currently near a support area. Pay attention to whether there are signs of stabilization during consolidation; if this structure is broken, the market may weaken further. Overall, the long-term ascending structure remains intact, with a short-term adjustment phase, focusing on the effectiveness of the support area. The pressure area above is around 1.1600-1.1650, while the support area below is around 1.1300-1.1350.

Viewpoint: Volatile but slightly strong; the short-term pullback has not stabilized yet, pay attention to the effectiveness of the support area.

*Pre-market view, time-sensitive and limited, is a prediction for reference and learning only, not an investment advice; operate at your own risk. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.