HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0425

Time	Data and Events	Importance
To Be Determined	Global financial leaders attend the IMF-World Bank Spring Meeting, until April 26.	★★★
07:01	UK April Gfk Consumer Confidence Index	★★★
14:00	UK March Seasonally Adjusted Retail Sales Month-on-Month	★★★
16:00	Swiss National Bank President Thomas Jordan gives a speech	★★★
20:30	Canada February Retail Sales Month-on-Month	★★★
22:00	US April University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index Final	★★★★
	US April One-Year Inflation Rate Expectation Final	★★★

Varieties	Views	Support Range	Resistance Range
US Dollar Index	Weak fluctuations	96-97	100-101
Gold	Short-term correction	3200-3230	3380-3400
Oil	Short-term rebound	56-57	65-66
Euro	Strong fluctuations	1.1300-1.1350	1.1600-1.1650

*Pre-market views are timely and limited, represent forecasts, serve only as references for study, do not constitute investment advice, and risks are borne by the operator. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

In the March Federal Reserve meeting, interest rates were maintained, the labor market remained stable, inflation expectations for this year and next were raised, and GDP growth forecasts for the next three years were lowered. From April, the pace of balance sheet reduction will slow, and there is uncertainty regarding tariff policies. In March, non-farm data indicated an increase of 228,000 jobs, significantly exceeding expectations, while the unemployment rate slightly rose, indicating a strong labor market. Tariff policies increase market risks and uncertainties. The year-over-year CPI in March decreased slightly, raising expectations for future rate cuts.

Technical Analysis:

The US Dollar Index showed slight fluctuations yesterday, with the current price near the resistance zone and not clearly breaking above, suggesting potential selling pressure. The short-term may continue to oscillate, and if this structure is broken, the trend may strengthen further. Overall, the price has retreated from a high, breaking through important support zones, with no stabilization signs yet. The upper resistance zone is around 100-101, and the lower support zone is around 96-97.

Viewpoint: Weak fluctuations, with a short-term rebound; pay attention to whether the resistance structure can be broken.

*Pre-market views are timely and limited, represent forecasts, serve only as references for study, do not constitute investment advice, and risks are borne by the operator. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

Ongoing escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and uncertainty in Eastern Europe. The European Central Bank’s April interest rate decision marks the sixth consecutive reduction of 25 basis points, with inflation cooling and economic resilience strengthening. In the March Federal Reserve rate decision, interest rates were maintained, the labor market remained solid, GDP growth forecasts were lowered, and the pace of balance sheet reduction would slow. The US March non-farm data showed a significant increase in jobs exceeding expectations, while the unemployment rate slightly rose; March CPI year-over-year decreased slightly, raising expectations for Fed rate cuts. The US tariff policy might stimulate the safe-haven nature of gold.

Technical Analysis:

Gold prices showed slight fluctuations and a rebound yesterday, with a short-term rise and subsequent retreat suggestive of potential selling pressure. Caution is advised regarding further risk of weakening in the trend; the short term may continue the correction approach, focusing on short positions for timely profits. In the long-term view, the upward structure is maintained, currently undergoing a secondary adjustment with no signs of stabilization yet. The upper resistance level is around 3380-3400, with the lower support level around 3200-3230.

Viewpoint: Short-term pullback, there may be an opportunity to short, profit in a timely manner.

*Pre-market views are timely and limited, represent forecasts, serve only as references for study, do not constitute investment advice, and risks are borne by the operator. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The April EIA monthly report basically maintains oil production for this year and next year, slightly lowering global oil demand for this year and next year; OPEC’s monthly report slightly downgrades the global economic growth forecast for this year and next year, as well as the global oil demand growth forecast for this year and next year; the IEA report lowers the global oil demand growth forecast for 2025. At the beginning of April, the OPEC+ ministerial meeting maintained the oil production policy unchanged and agreed to exceed expected production increases in May. The uncertainty of U.S. tariff policies may impact the demand side. EIA crude oil inventories slightly increased, with a short-term neutral impact.

Technical Analysis:

U.S. crude oil futures traded in a slight range, with limited fluctuations. The short cycle continues the rebound trend, with no signs of weakness appearing, and a higher probability of further upward movement in the short term, making low long positions a possibility and realizing profits on highs. Overall, crude oil has shown weak performance previously, with a rebound occurring at low levels, but no signs of significant stabilization have appeared yet. The upper pressure zone is around 65-66, while the lower support zone is around 56-57.

Viewpoint: Short-term rebound, attempt low long positions, and realize profits in a timely manner.

*Pre-market views are timely and limited, represent forecasts, serve only as references for study, do not constitute investment advice, and risks are borne by the operator. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The European Central Bank’s April interest rate decision saw a consecutive sixth rate cut of 25 basis points, with inflation receding smoothly and economic resilience somewhat enhanced, relying on data and conducting gradual assessments, dynamically adjusting monetary policy positions, while paying attention to trade tensions. The Federal Reserve’s March interest rate decision maintained the status quo, raised inflation expectations, and lowered GDP growth forecasts, indicating a slowdown in the balance sheet reduction pace. In March, U.S. non-farm payroll data showed employment numbers were significantly above expectations, while the unemployment rate slightly increased; March CPI year-on-year slightly declined. The manufacturing PMI values for major Eurozone countries in April were slightly above expectations, with little change from previous values.

Technical Analysis:

The euro price rose slightly yesterday, with moderate strength, in a short cycle showing a fluctuating structure, currently near the support region. Attention should be paid to whether there are signs of stabilization during consolidation; if it breaks below that structure, the trend may further weaken. Overall, the larger cycle’s upward structure remains intact, but it has entered a short-term adjustment phase, so the effectiveness of the support region should be monitored. The upper pressure zone is around 1.1600-1.1650, while the lower support zone is around 1.1300-1.1350.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating with a slight upward bias, the short-term pullback has yet to stabilize, attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the support region.

*Pre-market views are timely and limited, represent forecasts, serve only as references for study, do not constitute investment advice, and risks are borne by the operator. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.