HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0507

Time	Data and Events	Importance
04:30	U.S. API Crude Oil Inventory for the week ending May 2	★★★
14:45	France’s March Trade Balance	★★★
17:00	Eurozone March Retail Sales Month-on-Month	★★★
22:30	U.S. EIA Crude Oil Inventory for the week ending May 2	★★★★
	U.S. EIA Oklahoma Cushing Crude Oil Inventory for the week ending May 2	★★★
	U.S. EIA Strategic Petroleum Reserve Inventory for the week ending May 2	★★★
Next Day 02:00	U.S. Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision for May 7	★★★★★
Next Day 02:30	Federal Reserve Chairman Powell holds a monetary policy press conference	★★★★★

Variety	Viewpoint	Support Range	Resistance Range
U.S. Dollar Index	Weak oscillation	96-97	100-101
Gold	Strong oscillation	3250-3270	3450-3480
Crude Oil	Short-term rebound	55-56	65-66
Euro	Strong oscillation	1.1250-1.1300	1.1600-1.1650

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictive in nature, and are for reference and learning only. They do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

In the March Federal Reserve meeting, interest rates were kept unchanged, the labor market remained stable, inflation expectations for this and next year were raised, and GDP growth expectations for the next three years were lowered. The pace of balance sheet reduction will slow starting in April, and there is uncertainty regarding tariff policies. The April non-farm data showed an increase of 177,000 jobs, slightly exceeding expectations, with the unemployment rate remaining unchanged, indicating a robust labor market. Tariff policies increase market risks and uncertainties. The year-on-year CPI for March showed a slight decline, raising expectations for future interest rate cuts. Attention is on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on Thursday morning.

Technical Analysis:

The U.S. Dollar Index fell slightly yesterday, with little volatility. The short-term performance is weak, and prices are maintaining a low oscillation pattern, with no significant signs of stabilization. Currently, it is at a short-term resistance level, and attention is on whether this resistance structure can be broken. Overall, prices have retreated from high levels, breaking through important support areas, with no signs of stabilization yet. The upper resistance area is around 100-101, while the lower support area is around 96-97.

Viewpoint: Weak oscillation, signs of slowing decline, and short-term oscillation may continue.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictive in nature, and are for reference and learning only. They do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East are escalating, and there is uncertainty in the Eastern European situation. The European Central Bank’s April interest rate decision saw a continuous sixth rate cut of 25 basis points, with inflation declining smoothly and economic resilience strengthening. The March Federal Reserve interest rate decision remained unchanged, with a stable labor market and lowered GDP growth expectations, and a slowdown in balance sheet reduction is expected. The U.S. April non-farm data showed job growth exceeding expectations, with the unemployment rate unchanged; the year-on-year CPI for March showed a slight decline, raising expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. U.S. tariff policies may stimulate gold’s safe-haven attributes. Attention is on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision.

Technical Analysis:

The price of gold surged significantly yesterday, showing strong performance in the short term. There may be selling pressure near previous highs, so if there are long positions, it is advisable to take profits on the highs while also monitoring whether the price can reach new highs; otherwise, it may turn into a high-level consolidation market. From a long-term perspective, the upward structure is maintained, with daily fluctuations leaning towards strength, and a short-term test of the upper pressure level. The upper pressure level is around 3450-3480, while the lower support level is around 3250-3270.

Viewpoint: Fluctuations lean towards strength, approaching the previous high pressure area; if there are long positions, it is advisable to take profits on the highs.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictive in nature, and are for reference and learning only. They do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The May EIA monthly report basically maintains the global oil demand forecast for this and next year, slightly lowering the forecast for U.S. oil production for this and next year. The April OPEC monthly report slightly lowered the global economic growth forecast for this and next year and reduced the global oil demand growth forecast for this and next year; the IEA monthly report lowered the global oil demand growth forecast for 2025. The OPEC+ member countries’ meeting in early May will increase production in June, accelerating the pace of production increases for the second consecutive month. There is uncertainty in U.S. tariff policies, which may affect demand. Pay attention to the EIA crude oil inventory report on Wednesday.

Technical Analysis:

U.S. crude oil rebounded from a low yesterday, showing a short-term upward fluctuation. The price tested the previous low support without a significant breakdown, and in the short term, it may maintain a fluctuating pattern, so a short-term long strategy can be attempted, with timely profit-taking. Overall, crude oil has shown weak performance previously, with fluctuations at low levels, and there are no significant signs of stabilization yet. The upper pressure area is around 65-66, while the lower support area is around 55-56.

Viewpoint: Short-term rebound, with prices at relatively low levels, consider short-term long opportunities.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictive in nature, and are for reference and learning only. They do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The European Central Bank’s April interest rate decision saw a continuous sixth rate cut of 25 basis points, with inflation declining smoothly and economic resilience somewhat enhanced. The monetary policy stance will be dynamically adjusted based on data and assessed gradually, with attention to trade situations. The U.S. Federal Reserve’s March interest rate decision remained unchanged, raising inflation expectations while lowering GDP growth expectations, and will slow down the pace of balance sheet reduction. The U.S. non-farm payrolls in April slightly exceeded expectations, with the unemployment rate remaining unchanged; the March CPI year-on-year slightly decreased. The manufacturing PMI values in major Eurozone countries showed little change in April. Pay attention to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision.

Technical Analysis:

The euro price slightly increased yesterday, with little fluctuation. The daily structure is leaning towards consolidation, currently still within the support area, and there are no signs of stabilization yet. In the short term, it may maintain a fluctuating market; if it significantly breaks below this structure, the market may weaken. Overall, the long-term upward structure remains intact, with a short-term adjustment, so pay attention to the effectiveness of the support area. The upper pressure area is around 1.1600-1.1650, while the lower support area is around 1.1250-1.1300.

Viewpoint: Fluctuations lean towards strength; pay attention to the effectiveness of the support area.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictive in nature, and are for reference and learning only. They do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.