HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0709

Time	Data and Events	Importance
04:30	U.S. API crude oil inventory for the week ending July 4	★★★
10:00	New Zealand’s interest rate decision for the week ending July 9	★★★
11:00	Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Orr holds a monetary policy press conference	★★★
22:00	U.S. wholesale sales month-on-month for May	★★★
22:30	U.S. EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending July 4	★★★★
	U.S. EIA crude oil inventory at Cushing, Oklahoma for the week ending July 4	★★★
	U.S. EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory for the week ending July 4	★★★
Next day 01:00	U.S. 10-year Treasury auction – winning yield for the week ending July 9	★★★
	U.S. 10-year Treasury auction – bid-to-cover ratio for the week ending July 9	★★★
Next day 02:00	Federal Reserve releases minutes from the monetary policy meeting	★★★

Variety	Viewpoint	Support range	Resistance range
U.S. Dollar Index	Short-term rebound	96-97	99.5-100
Gold	Fluctuating slightly weaker	3220-3250	3350-3380
Crude oil	Fluctuating slightly stronger	64-65	79-80
Euro	Short-term pullback	1.1680-1.1700	1.1780-1.1800

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are speculative in nature, and are for reference and learning purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operations is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

In June, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates for the fourth consecutive time. The dot plot indicates two rate cuts within the year. Inflation levels are slightly high, and uncertainty in the economic outlook has somewhat diminished. The unemployment rate is at a low level, and the labor market is stable. In June, non-farm payrolls added 147,000 jobs, slightly above expectations, with an unemployment rate of 4.1%, lower than previous values and expectations, indicating a robust labor market. The unadjusted CPI year-on-year for May rose slightly but was below expectations; the core PCE price index for May rebounded slightly; the ISM manufacturing PMI for May also showed a slight increase.

Technical Analysis:

The U.S. Dollar Index experienced slight fluctuations yesterday, closing with a doji candlestick, indicating intense competition between bulls and bears. The short-term trend is moving upward, with bulls slightly favored, suggesting there may still be upward space, and a rebound strategy may be maintained in the short term. Overall, the larger structure shows a slightly weaker trend, with a slowing decline, entering a rebound phase. The upper resistance area is around 99.5-100, while the lower support area is around 96-97.

Viewpoint: Short-term rebound, with bulls slightly favored, suggesting there may still be room for an increase.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are speculative in nature, and are for reference and learning purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operations is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is escalating, with conflicts between Israel and Iran, and instability in Eastern Europe. The European Central Bank’s June interest rate decision marked the seventh consecutive rate cut of 25 basis points, nearing the end of the rate-cutting cycle, while lowering inflation expectations for this year and next. The Federal Reserve’s June interest rate decision maintained rates, with slightly high inflation levels and a stable labor market, indicating two rate cuts within the year. In June, the U.S. non-farm payrolls added 147,000 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.1%, both slightly better than expected; the unadjusted CPI year-on-year for May showed slight warming.

Technical Analysis:

The gold price encountered resistance and fell back yesterday, closing with a large bearish candle on the daily chart. The short-term trend shows a downward oscillation, with a weak performance expected in the near term. There may be selling pressure above, and short-selling opportunities can be attempted during the day, with profit-taking on dips. From a larger perspective, the daily chart shows high-level oscillation, with prices fluctuating back and forth. The upper pressure level is around 3350-3380, while the lower support level is around 3220-3250.

Viewpoint: Oscillation is weak, attempt high short opportunities during the day, and take profits in a timely manner.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are speculative in nature, and are for reference and learning purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operations is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The July EIA monthly report slightly raised the oil price forecast for this year; the June OPEC monthly report maintained the global oil demand growth forecast for this year and next, as well as the economic growth forecast for this year and next. The June IEA monthly report slightly lowered the oil demand forecast for this year and next. At the end of May, the OPEC+ ministerial meeting agreed to set the 2025 oil production level as the benchmark for 2027, with another round of negotiations expected in early June, potentially reaching an agreement to accelerate oil production increases in July. Pay attention to the EIA crude oil inventory report on Wednesday and the IEA crude oil report on Friday.

Technical Analysis:

U.S. crude oil rose slightly yesterday, closing with a small bullish candle on the daily chart. The short-term trend shows an upward oscillation, with bulls currently in control, and a continuation of the strong oscillation trend is possible, focusing on buying on dips and taking profits on highs. Overall, crude oil has undergone a significant correction previously, testing an important structure, and there may be signs of stabilization. The upper pressure area is around 79-80, while the lower support area is around 64-65.

Viewpoint: Oscillation is strong, with a focus on buying on dips in the short term.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are speculative in nature, and are for reference and learning purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operations is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The European Central Bank’s June interest rate decision saw a consecutive seventh rate cut of 25 basis points, nearing the end of the rate-cutting cycle, with no discussion on neutral rates. The inflation forecast for this year and next was lowered, along with the GDP growth forecast for next year, as trade upgrades lead to slower economic growth and inflation. The June Federal Reserve interest rate decision remained unchanged, with a robust labor market, slightly elevated short-term inflation, and reduced economic uncertainty. The dot plot indicates two rate cuts within the year. The Eurozone’s June manufacturing PMI slightly missed expectations, with not much difference.

Technical Analysis:

The euro price rose slightly and then fell back yesterday, with significant selling pressure above. Caution is advised regarding the risk of a weakening trend. Short-selling opportunities can be attempted during the day, with timely profit-taking. Currently, it is at a small support level and may oscillate; if this structure is broken, the trend may weaken further. Overall, the daily chart shows an upward oscillation, with a strong structure at a larger level, entering a short-term adjustment. The upper pressure area is around 1.1780-1.1800, while the lower small support area is around 1.1680-1.1700.

Viewpoint: Short-term correction, attempt short-selling opportunities during the day, and take profits in a timely manner.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are speculative in nature, and are for reference and learning purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operations is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.