HTFX Commentary 0830

 

 

HTFX Investment Research Team

 

time	Data and events	importance
07:30	Japan’s unemployment rate in July	★★★
14:00	UK Nationwide House Price Index Monthly Rate in August	★★★
14:45	French CPI monthly rate in August	★★★
	Final value of France’s second quarter GDP annual rate	★★★
15:00	Swiss KOF economic leading indicator in August	★★★
15:55	German unemployment figures for August	★★★
	Germany’s August seasonally adjusted unemployment rate	★★★
17:00	Eurozone August CPI annual rate preliminary value	★★★
	Eurozone August CPI monthly rate	★★★
	Eurozone unemployment rate in July	★★★
20:30	Canada’s June GDP monthly rate	★★★
	U.S. core PCE price index annual rate in July	★★★★
	U.S. personal spending monthly rate in July	★★★
	U.S. core PCE price index monthly rate in July	★★★
21:45	U.S. Chicago PMI in August	★★★
22:00	Final value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in August	★★★★

 

variety	Viewpoint	Support range	Pressure range
US dollar index	Oscillating rebound	100-101	104-104.5
Gold	High-level oscillation	2400-2420	2530-2550
Crude oil	Short-term oscillation	70-72	79-80
Euro	Short-term pullback	1.0900-1.0950	1.1200-1.1250

*Pre-market view, with timeliness and limitations, belongs to anticipation, for reference and learning only, not investment advice, trade at your own risk. Investment carries risks, trading should be cautious.

 

Fundamental analysis:

At the end of July, the Federal Reserve meeting maintained interest rates unchanged. Inflation has made further progress but remains high. There are signs of weakness in economic growth but not severe. Employment growth has slowed down. This meeting discussed the possibility of future rate cuts. The annualized GDP rate in the United States for the second quarter was better than expected and the previous value. Retail sales in July increased slightly, higher than expected and previous value. Non-farm employment in July fell significantly below expectations, and the unemployment rate rose. CPI data in July fell slightly, with moderate inflation decline. Pay attention to the core PCE price index for July in the United States this Friday.

Technical analysis:

The US dollar index rose slightly yesterday, oscillating upward in the short term, with obvious support effect below. The daily chart shows signs of stabilization, and there may still be room for upward movement in the short term. It is worth trying to take advantage of the opportunity to buy on dips. Overall, the market is in a wide range of oscillation within a range, currently approaching a major support structure, pay attention to whether there will be signs of consolidation and stabilization. The upper resistance area is around 104-104.5, and the lower support area is around 100-101.

Viewpoint: Oscillating rebound, signs of daily chart stabilization, trying to buy on dips.

*Pre-market view, with timeliness and limitations, belongs to anticipation, for reference and learning only, not investment advice, trade at your own risk. Investment carries risks, trading should be cautious.

 

Fundamental analysis:

The Middle East geopolitical conflict spills over, and the situation in Europe is turbulent, with uncertainty prevailing. In July, the European Central Bank maintained the three major interest rates unchanged, with stable inflation but facing downward pressure on economic growth. At the end of July, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged and discussed the possibility of future rate cuts, with a slightly dovish stance overall. The unexpected weakness in US non-farm data in July increased expectations of a rate cut. US CPI data in July moderately declined, lower than the expected and previous values. Manufacturing PMI in the Eurozone and economies such as Germany and France slightly declined in August.

Technical analysis:

Gold prices are oscillating at high levels, with no clear breakthrough of previous high pressure in the short term. Caution should be exercised against the risk of market correction, and profits should be taken by reducing long positions at high levels. From a long-term perspective, prices are oscillating at high levels, with a significant increase in prices in the previous period and an overall overvaluation, but no major signals of a weakening trend have appeared yet. The upper resistance level is around 2530-2550, and the lower minor support level is around 2460-2480, with an important support level around 2400-2420.

Viewpoint: Oscillating at high levels, reduce long positions at high levels, and be cautious of the risk of market correction.

*Pre-market view, with timeliness and limitations, belongs to anticipation, for reference and learning only, not investment advice, trade at your own risk. Investment carries risks, trading should be cautious.

 

Fundamental analysis:

In the August EIA monthly report, the global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 was slightly lowered, while the crude oil demand forecast for 2024 was maintained, and the crude oil price forecast for 2024-2025 was slightly lowered. In the OPEC monthly report, the global crude oil demand forecast for 2024-2025 was slightly lowered, while the global economic growth forecast for 2024-2025 was maintained. The IEA monthly report maintained the global crude oil demand growth forecast for 2024. In early August, the OPEC+ ministerial meeting focused on production compensation issues and did not discuss fourth-quarter production policies. EIA inventory data decreased slightly, and attention is given to changes in supply and demand structure.

Technical analysis:

US crude oil rebounded significantly in the night session, showing signs of stabilization in the short term, but there is selling pressure above. It is worth trying short-term long opportunities and taking profits in a timely manner, while also paying attention to whether prices can break through the resistance structure. Overall, crude oil prices are oscillating within a wide range, and attention is given to support and resistance areas and the direction of future breakthroughs. The upper resistance area is around 79-80, and the important support area is around 70-72.

Viewpoint: Short-term volatility, try short opportunities, focus on whether the pressure structure can break above.

*Pre-market view, with timeliness and limitations, belongs to anticipation, for reference and learning only, not investment advice, trade at your own risk. Investment carries risks, trading should be cautious.

 

Fundamental analysis:

ECB’s interest rate decision in July, maintaining the three major rates unchanged, stable inflation, slowing economic growth and facing downside risks, labor market maintaining resilience, open to interest rate cuts in September. The end of July meeting of the Federal Reserve, maintaining interest rates unchanged, progress in inflation, slowing job growth, and discussing the possibility of future interest rate cuts. US non-farm data in July fell short of expectations, with moderate decline in July CPI data. Manufacturing PMI in the eurozone and major economies such as Germany and France fell slightly, below previous and expected values.

Technical analysis:

The euro price continues to decline, breaking below minor support levels, showing signs of weakness, and may enter a short-term correction. Short-term opportunities for short positions can be tried, and profits should be taken in a timely manner. Overall, the daily chart shows a strong bias in volatility and no signs of turning weak, focusing on opportunities for long positions on pullbacks. The important resistance area above is near 1.1200-1.1250, and the support area below is near 1.0900-1.0950.

Viewpoint: Short-term correction, can try short opportunities, take profits in a timely manner.

*Pre-market view, with timeliness and limitations, belongs to anticipation, for reference and learning only, not investment advice, trade at your own risk. Investment carries risks, trading should be cautious.

 

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